Prediction; Roosh to write 'Bang East Ukraine' and 'Bang West Ukraine' in 2015.

Quote: (02-20-2014 09:10 PM)Roosh Wrote:  

Incredible female to male ratio at Lviv protest:

That's pretty incredible.

It's almost surreal to me to see so many pretty young girls grouped together like that and all of them are free of facial piercings, tattoos, fucked up hair, un-dyed hair, and such clean, healthy, youthful looking skin. I've never seen anything like that.

Quote: (02-21-2014 12:29 AM)thedude3737 Wrote:  

Quote: (02-20-2014 09:10 PM)Roosh Wrote:  

Incredible female to male ratio at Lviv protest:

That's pretty incredible.

It's almost surreal to me to see so many pretty young girls grouped together like that and all of them are free of facial piercings, tattoos, fucked up hair, un-dyed hair, and such clean, healthy, youthful looking skin. I've never seen anything like that.

Sorry to hear you have never visited Ukraine.

With Brussels and UK urging Ukrainians to fight for "freedom & democracy", are they prepared for citizens in countries closer to them to do the same?

Albania opposition holds anti-government protest
http://missoulian.com/news/world/europe/...72aad.html

Anti-government protests continue in Bosnia
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/...nue-bosnia

Bosnia’s Corrupt Rulers Hit by an Angry ‘Citizen Tsunami’
http://mag.newsweek.com/2014/02/14/bosnia.html

Greek farmers protest planned tax reforms
http://www.thepublicopinion.com/news/ass...030ee.html

The Arab Spring showed that this sort of thing can be contagious.

Quote: (02-21-2014 08:49 AM)Roosh Wrote:  

With Brussels and UK urging Ukrainians to fight for "freedom & democracy", are they prepared for citizens in countries closer to them to do the same?

Albania opposition holds anti-government protest
http://missoulian.com/news/world/europe/...72aad.html

Anti-government protests continue in Bosnia
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/...nue-bosnia

Bosnia’s Corrupt Rulers Hit by an Angry ‘Citizen Tsunami’
http://mag.newsweek.com/2014/02/14/bosnia.html

Greek farmers protest planned tax reforms
http://www.thepublicopinion.com/news/ass...030ee.html

The Arab Spring showed that this sort of thing can be contagious.

Belgium and Latvia come to mind...

The Western media keeps repeating that the protests are not about "East vs. West", so I thought I would dispel that myth with some raw data...

The following is a list of the 'protestors' who have died during the conflict.

Totals:
West - 34
Central - 16 (Also interesting to me: only 6 from towns and cities, the rest from villages)
South/East - 4
Other/not identified - 9

9 of the 54 identified (16.7%) were from Kiev and its surrounding oblast (county); the rest - imports.


Heorhiy Aratunian, around 50, Rivne

Serhiy Baydovsky, 22, Novovolynsk, Volyn region , trunk pipeline "Druzhba"worker

Valeriy Brezdeniuk, 50, Vinnytsia, artist

Serhiy Bondarchuk, 53, Starokostyantyniv, Khmelnytsky Oblast, physics teacher , was shot on February 20.

Serhiy Bondarev, programmer at Global Logic

Bohdan Vaida, 49, Letnia village, Lviv Oblast

Vitaliy Vasyltsov, 37, Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast , was shot on Feb. 19. on Velyka Zhytomurska

Roman Varenytsia, 35, Yavoriv Rayon, Lviv Oblast

Nazar Voytovych, 17 student of coperative college of Ternopil.

Roman Guryk, 20, Ivano-Frankivsk

Ustym Golodniuk, 20, Zbarazh, Ternopil Oblast, student, volunteer

Roman Tochyn, 45, Khodoriv, Lviv Oblast , died on Feb. 20

Eduard Hrynevych, 29, Derevky, Volyn Oblast, member of “Volyn sotnia”

Anatoliy Zhalovaha, 34, Lviv

Volodymyr Zakharov, 57, IT specialist, died durning storming of the Party of Regions office on Feb. 18 on Lipska St.

Antonina Dvorianets, 62, Brovary, Kyiv Oblast, did not take part in the rally. Received a gunshot wound accidentally

Andriy Dygdalovych, Sokilnyky, Lviv Oblast , died on Feb. 20

Serhiy Didych, 44, Horodenka, Ivano Frankivsk Oblast, leader of local VO “Svoboda” branch

Mykola Dziavylsky, 56, Shepetivka, Khmelnytsky Oblast,geography and biology teacher, a member of "Svoboda"

Ihor Dmitriev , 30, Kopanku village, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast

Anatoliy Zherebnyi, Rudki village, Lviv Oblast

Volodymyr Zherebnyi, Vyshnia, Lviv Oblast

Yakiv Zaiko, 41, Zhytomyr, People's deputy, public figure, journalist, died from heart attack while running away from Berkut

Oleksandr Kapinos, 29, Kremenets, Ternopil Oblast, farmer

Serhiy Kemsky, 34, Kerch, Crimea, expert at the Institute of political and economic risks and opportunities.

Volodymyr Kishchuk, 58, Zaporizhia Oblast

Anatoliy Korchak, Havrilovtski village, Khmelnytsky Oblast

Andriy Korchak, Stryj, Lviv Oblast

Ihor Kostenko, 22, Lviv

Vitaliy Kotsiuba, 22, Lviv -

Ivan Kreman, Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, was found in Hotel Ukraine

Volodymyr Kulchytsky, 65, Kyiv

Vasyl Moisey, 21, Kivertsi, Volyn Oblast, member of Kivertsi VO “Svoboda” city organization

Andriy Movchan, 34, Democratic Alliance, worked as stageman at Kyiv Ivan Franko Theater

Volodymyr Naumov, 43, Schevchenko village, Donetsk Oblast, was found dead on Trukhaniv island in Kyiv

Roman Nikulichev, 21, Kyiv.

Valeriy Opanasiuk, 42, Rivne

Dmytro Pagor, 21, Khmelnytsky Oblast

Volodymyr Pavliuk,40

Yuriy Parashchuk, 48, Kharkiv, was shot in the head on Feb.20

Yuriy Paskhalin, 30, Cherkasy , died from 3 gunshot wounds.

Oleksandr Plekhanov, 23, architect

Leonid Polianskiy, 35

Andriy Sayenko, 42, Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast

Ihor Serdiuk, 40, Poltava Oblast, was killed near the Mariinsky Park on Feb.18.

Viktor Smilenko, 53, Borisovka village, Kirovohrad Oblast, the body was found in Hotel Ukraine

Vitaliy Smolynsky, Furmanovka village, Cherkasy Oblast

Bohdan Solchanyk, 29, Staryi Sambir, Lviv Oblast, teacher at the Ukrainian Catholic University

Ivan Tarasiuk, 21, Olyka, Volyn Oblast

Igor Tkachuk,39, Russia, was found dead in Hotel Ukraine on Feb.20

Ivan Tur, Horodok, 41, Lviv Oblast,

Oleh Ushnevych, 32, Drogobych, Lviv Oblast, Hero of Ukraine

Oleksandr Khrapchenko, 27, Rivne, theater director

Zurab Khurtsiya, 54, Kirovograd, didn't take part in riots, died from heart attack

Vlad Chaplynsky, Obukhiv, Kyiv Oblast

Andriy Chernenko, 35

Viktor Chmylenko, Borysivka, Kirovograd Oblast, farmer, activ member of Kirovograd Euromaidan and Automaidan, was shot by sniper

Oleksandr Tsariok, Kalinin village, Kyiv Oblast,

Serhiy Shapoval, 45 (or 46), Kyiv, was found dead in House of Officers building

Maksym Shynko, 33, Vinnutsia

Yosyp Shyling, 61 (or 62), shot outside of the October Palace.

Oleksandr Scherbaniuk, 46, Chernivtsi

David Kapiani, Georgia, Died on Feb. 20 from two gunshot wounds.

Today the media is reporting a deal was reached overnight between protestors and the government that may diffuse the situation.

Allow me to put on the "conspiracy" hat for a second (this is eastern Europe after all...) Doesn't continued violence actually play into Russia's hands? If the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists keep fomenting instability and the country tips towards further civil unrest, it seems to me that this will eventually present the perfect pretext for Russia to re-occupy the eastern portion of the country in the name of protecting ethnic Russian civilians. It's South Ossetia all over again.

Russia is in this for the long game. Although it sounds ludicrous on the surface, I wouldn't be surprised if Russian intelligence was somehow secretly supporting the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists, meanwhile blaming the west for doing that very thing. And even if they are not doing that, it's clear they can still turn the situation to their own benefit.

Quote: (02-21-2014 11:00 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  

double post

Quote: (02-21-2014 11:00 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  

Allow me to put on the "conspiracy" hat for a second (this is eastern Europe after all...) Doesn't continued violence actually play into Russia's hands? If the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists keep fomenting instability and the country tips towards further civil unrest, it seems to me that this will eventually present the perfect pretext for Russia to re-occupy the eastern portion of the country in the name of protecting ethnic Russian civilians. It's South Ossetia all over again.

It isn't in Russia's interest to promote regional break-aways because that would put the balance of the remaining electorate strongly in favour of the Western part of the country. Russia would then lose a lot of trade with whatever was left of Ukraine. That would also place the gas pipelines under the control of Svoboda and its associated maniacs.
This is what you need to know: (North Stream is already fully operational; South Stream is set to go live by the end of 2015).


If there was a split, I think only Odessa and Crimea would break away. Khrakov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhia, etc. don't have strong enough support for it, and the Donbas is under the control of the Akhmetov, who would not want to take orders from Putin.

Quote: (02-21-2014 10:11 AM)DaveR Wrote:  

The Western media keeps repeating that the protests are not about "East vs. West", so I thought I would dispel that myth with some raw data...

The following is a list of the 'protestors' who have died during the conflict.

Totals:
West - 34
Central - 16 (Also interesting to me: only 6 from towns and cities, the rest from villages)
South/East - 4
Other/not identified - 9

9 of the 54 identified (16.7%) were from Kiev and its surrounding oblast (county); the rest - imports.


Heorhiy Aratunian, around 50, Rivne

Serhiy Baydovsky, 22, Novovolynsk, Volyn region , trunk pipeline "Druzhba"worker

Valeriy Brezdeniuk, 50, Vinnytsia, artist

Serhiy Bondarchuk, 53, Starokostyantyniv, Khmelnytsky Oblast, physics teacher , was shot on February 20.

Serhiy Bondarev, programmer at Global Logic

Bohdan Vaida, 49, Letnia village, Lviv Oblast

Vitaliy Vasyltsov, 37, Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast , was shot on Feb. 19. on Velyka Zhytomurska

Roman Varenytsia, 35, Yavoriv Rayon, Lviv Oblast

Nazar Voytovych, 17 student of coperative college of Ternopil.

Roman Guryk, 20, Ivano-Frankivsk

Ustym Golodniuk, 20, Zbarazh, Ternopil Oblast, student, volunteer

Roman Tochyn, 45, Khodoriv, Lviv Oblast , died on Feb. 20

Eduard Hrynevych, 29, Derevky, Volyn Oblast, member of “Volyn sotnia”

Anatoliy Zhalovaha, 34, Lviv

Volodymyr Zakharov, 57, IT specialist, died durning storming of the Party of Regions office on Feb. 18 on Lipska St.

Antonina Dvorianets, 62, Brovary, Kyiv Oblast, did not take part in the rally. Received a gunshot wound accidentally

Andriy Dygdalovych, Sokilnyky, Lviv Oblast , died on Feb. 20

Serhiy Didych, 44, Horodenka, Ivano Frankivsk Oblast, leader of local VO “Svoboda” branch

Mykola Dziavylsky, 56, Shepetivka, Khmelnytsky Oblast,geography and biology teacher, a member of "Svoboda"

Ihor Dmitriev , 30, Kopanku village, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast

Anatoliy Zherebnyi, Rudki village, Lviv Oblast

Volodymyr Zherebnyi, Vyshnia, Lviv Oblast

Yakiv Zaiko, 41, Zhytomyr, People's deputy, public figure, journalist, died from heart attack while running away from Berkut

Oleksandr Kapinos, 29, Kremenets, Ternopil Oblast, farmer

Serhiy Kemsky, 34, Kerch, Crimea, expert at the Institute of political and economic risks and opportunities.

Volodymyr Kishchuk, 58, Zaporizhia Oblast

Anatoliy Korchak, Havrilovtski village, Khmelnytsky Oblast

Andriy Korchak, Stryj, Lviv Oblast

Ihor Kostenko, 22, Lviv

Vitaliy Kotsiuba, 22, Lviv -

Ivan Kreman, Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, was found in Hotel Ukraine

Volodymyr Kulchytsky, 65, Kyiv

Vasyl Moisey, 21, Kivertsi, Volyn Oblast, member of Kivertsi VO “Svoboda” city organization

Andriy Movchan, 34, Democratic Alliance, worked as stageman at Kyiv Ivan Franko Theater

Volodymyr Naumov, 43, Schevchenko village, Donetsk Oblast, was found dead on Trukhaniv island in Kyiv

Roman Nikulichev, 21, Kyiv.

Valeriy Opanasiuk, 42, Rivne

Dmytro Pagor, 21, Khmelnytsky Oblast

Volodymyr Pavliuk,40

Yuriy Parashchuk, 48, Kharkiv, was shot in the head on Feb.20

Yuriy Paskhalin, 30, Cherkasy , died from 3 gunshot wounds.

Oleksandr Plekhanov, 23, architect

Leonid Polianskiy, 35

Andriy Sayenko, 42, Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast

Ihor Serdiuk, 40, Poltava Oblast, was killed near the Mariinsky Park on Feb.18.

Viktor Smilenko, 53, Borisovka village, Kirovohrad Oblast, the body was found in Hotel Ukraine

Vitaliy Smolynsky, Furmanovka village, Cherkasy Oblast

Bohdan Solchanyk, 29, Staryi Sambir, Lviv Oblast, teacher at the Ukrainian Catholic University

Ivan Tarasiuk, 21, Olyka, Volyn Oblast

Igor Tkachuk,39, Russia, was found dead in Hotel Ukraine on Feb.20

Ivan Tur, Horodok, 41, Lviv Oblast,

Oleh Ushnevych, 32, Drogobych, Lviv Oblast, Hero of Ukraine

Oleksandr Khrapchenko, 27, Rivne, theater director

Zurab Khurtsiya, 54, Kirovograd, didn't take part in riots, died from heart attack

Vlad Chaplynsky, Obukhiv, Kyiv Oblast

Andriy Chernenko, 35

Viktor Chmylenko, Borysivka, Kirovograd Oblast, farmer, activ member of Kirovograd Euromaidan and Automaidan, was shot by sniper

Oleksandr Tsariok, Kalinin village, Kyiv Oblast,

Serhiy Shapoval, 45 (or 46), Kyiv, was found dead in House of Officers building

Maksym Shynko, 33, Vinnutsia

Yosyp Shyling, 61 (or 62), shot outside of the October Palace.

Oleksandr Scherbaniuk, 46, Chernivtsi

David Kapiani, Georgia, Died on Feb. 20 from two gunshot wounds.

No that makes perfect sense .i mentioned before for example in Vinnittsa 10 years ago it was Russain speaking. The urban oblast capitals actually are more Russian , even in central Ukraine. poltava is another example and Sumy. But the villagers(peasants) are ethnic Ukrainians who are Russophobic.

Some reporting behind insurgent lines from a Russian photo-journalist:

http://zyalt.livejournal.com/1006094.html

Quote: (02-21-2014 12:09 PM)jimukr104 Wrote:  

No that makes perfect sense .i mentioned before for example in Vinnittsa 10 years ago it was Russain speaking. The urban oblast capitals actually are more Russian , even in central Ukraine. poltava is another example and Sumy. But the villagers(peasants) are ethnic Ukrainians who are Russophobic.

That's what I was getting at...
West - Ukrainian.
South/East - Ethnic Russian and Russian speakers from other regions.
Central - villagers are Ukrainian, city-dwellers are majority Russian speakers who arrived during various events during the past 100 years.
Kiev - mixed due to its status as the capital.


This 'protest' is the classic East/West conflict that Ukraine has been dealing with for over a decade. There will never be a "government of national unity" as Obama and the Europeans keep calling for. They either don't understand it, or they're ignoring it to justify their support for the nationalist elements.

Quote: (02-21-2014 11:39 AM)DaveR Wrote:  

It isn't in Russia's interest to promote regional break-aways because that would put the balance of the remaining electorate strongly in favour of the Western part of the country. Russia would then lose a lot of trade with whatever was left of Ukraine. That would also place the gas pipelines under the control of Svoboda and its associated maniacs.
This is what you need to know: (North Stream is already fully operational; South Stream is set to go live by the end of 2015).

One more thing I forgot to add earlier: I think Russia's game will change after 2015 when the Ukrainian gas transit pipelines become redundant. At that point they may become more active in trying to take back Crimea.

Quote: (02-21-2014 11:39 AM)DaveR Wrote:  

Quote: (02-21-2014 11:00 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  

Allow me to put on the "conspiracy" hat for a second (this is eastern Europe after all...) Doesn't continued violence actually play into Russia's hands? If the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists keep fomenting instability and the country tips towards further civil unrest, it seems to me that this will eventually present the perfect pretext for Russia to re-occupy the eastern portion of the country in the name of protecting ethnic Russian civilians. It's South Ossetia all over again.

It isn't in Russia's interest to promote regional break-aways because that would put the balance of the remaining electorate strongly in favour of the Western part of the country. Russia would then lose a lot of trade with whatever was left of Ukraine. That would also place the gas pipelines under the control of Svoboda and its associated maniacs.
This is what you need to know: (North Stream is already fully operational; South Stream is set to go live by the end of 2015).


If there was a split, I think only Odessa and Crimea would break away. Khrakov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhia, etc. don't have strong enough support for it, and the Donbas is under the control of the Akhmetov, who would not want to take orders from Putin.

Doubtful if the support is strong enough in Odessa either. The people I know (young, professional) hate Putin. Odessans are pretty independent and the current chaos suits them just fine.

Just like I thought, Tymoshenko to be released. This will further alienate Ukrainians suspicious of the opposition and those on the fence, as it is widely accepted among Ukrainians that she is a thief.

It will be interesting to see how Tymoshenko and Klitschko get along.

I doubt that this is the end of violence given that the street power that brought about this agreement --Pravy Sektor-- is not satisfied, and has just had their own political effectiveness confirmed by the EU.

Quote: (02-21-2014 01:32 PM)rastignac Wrote:  

Quote: (02-21-2014 11:39 AM)DaveR Wrote:  

Quote: (02-21-2014 11:00 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  

Allow me to put on the "conspiracy" hat for a second (this is eastern Europe after all...) Doesn't continued violence actually play into Russia's hands? If the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists keep fomenting instability and the country tips towards further civil unrest, it seems to me that this will eventually present the perfect pretext for Russia to re-occupy the eastern portion of the country in the name of protecting ethnic Russian civilians. It's South Ossetia all over again.

It isn't in Russia's interest to promote regional break-aways because that would put the balance of the remaining electorate strongly in favour of the Western part of the country. Russia would then lose a lot of trade with whatever was left of Ukraine. That would also place the gas pipelines under the control of Svoboda and its associated maniacs.
This is what you need to know: (North Stream is already fully operational; South Stream is set to go live by the end of 2015).


If there was a split, I think only Odessa and Crimea would break away. Khrakov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhia, etc. don't have strong enough support for it, and the Donbas is under the control of the Akhmetov, who would not want to take orders from Putin.

Doubtful if the support is strong enough in Odessa either. The people I know (young, professional) hate Putin. Odessans are pretty independent and the current chaos suits them just fine.

True... Odessans only care about money..and acquiring Gucci handbags but they would go with the East.They are still NOT Ukrainians..its a Russian cultured city plus they certainly can't stick with Western Ukrainians...they in their snobbish ways think of them as mere peasants.
Plus like you said economically they depend on corruption. Where do you think all the pirates and smugglers including arms deals ship from?
But Russia isn't annexing any one(maybe Crimea). It doesn't serve his purpose...much more important to have a UN member and WTO member who can give mutual support.
Plus East and South Ukraine would want to remain an nonindependent nation since they still would have ties to West Ukraine.
Again Russia's is about buffer zones. They never want their own borders to border on hostile countries.If you don't believe me just study history and read their expansion philosophy.

New dynamic today. Polish minister warns opposition to sign agreement or face death.






They sign. This was perhaps political suicide.

Surprise: crowds will not disperse until VY is gone.

No leaders in this country.

Quote: (02-21-2014 11:39 AM)DaveR Wrote:  

Quote: (02-21-2014 11:00 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  

Allow me to put on the "conspiracy" hat for a second (this is eastern Europe after all...) Doesn't continued violence actually play into Russia's hands? If the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists keep fomenting instability and the country tips towards further civil unrest, it seems to me that this will eventually present the perfect pretext for Russia to re-occupy the eastern portion of the country in the name of protecting ethnic Russian civilians. It's South Ossetia all over again.

It isn't in Russia's interest to promote regional break-aways because that would put the balance of the remaining electorate strongly in favour of the Western part of the country. Russia would then lose a lot of trade with whatever was left of Ukraine. That would also place the gas pipelines under the control of Svoboda and its associated maniacs.
This is what you need to know: (North Stream is already fully operational; South Stream is set to go live by the end of 2015).


If there was a split, I think only Odessa and Crimea would break away. Khrakov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhia, etc. don't have strong enough support for it, and the Donbas is under the control of the Akhmetov, who would not want to take orders from Putin.

You're right, but if a breakup is unavoidable, Russia will put "peacekeeping" troops in the east to preserve its military interests in the Black Sea. They did something similar in Moldova with Transnistria.

Rumor is Yanukovich will announce a country split tomorrow in Kharkiv.

http://hvylya.org/news/exclusive/viktor-...ainyi.html

There is also a rumor he is headed to Sochi on this plane:

http://hvylya.org/news/exclusive/viktor-...ainyi.html

In any case he seems to have left Kyiv.

Quote: (02-21-2014 05:39 PM)rastignac Wrote:  

Rumor is Yanukovich will announce a country split tomorrow in Kharkiv.

http://hvylya.org/news/exclusive/viktor-...ainyi.html

There is also a rumor he is headed to Sochi on this plane:

http://hvylya.org/news/exclusive/viktor-...ainyi.html

In any case he seems to have left Kyiv.

Are they going to give him a room with a door knob and working toilet?
Or is Putin going to dissolve him in a tub of acid..for failure!

Who's the artist?

Quote: (02-21-2014 05:39 PM)rastignac Wrote:  

Rumor is Yanukovich will announce a country split tomorrow in Kharkiv.

http://hvylya.org/news/exclusive/viktor-...ainyi.html

There is also a rumor he is headed to Sochi on this plane:

http://hvylya.org/news/exclusive/viktor-...ainyi.html

In any case he seems to have left Kyiv.

I just had to borrow this from another post:

   

Seriously... I expected it would take a couple of years before there was even a whisper of it.

   

It's clear that Russia sees a pro-EU Ukraine as a fundamental threat to its existing order. Putin has worked very hard over the past decade to raise Russia's profile in its region while the US was bogged down in two Middle East wars. Putin has been quoted as saying that the fall of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th Century. Think about that comment and how delusional the man is. He thinks the dismantling of a vicious totalitarian system that saw the likes of mass butchers like Joseph Stalin was WORSE than WWI, WII, Nazis/Holocaust, the nuclear bombing of Japan, etc. Putin very much wants to see the success of his nascent plan for the region known as the Eurasian Customs Union - an economic and cultural union of Russia and its former Soviet states with Moscow at its center. This is an experiment doomed to failure ultimately. The last thing the leaders of the former Soviet states want - after sacrificing so much for their independence - is a resurgent Russia dictating their affairs. The plan will only work to the extent that it provides economic benefits so long as Russia can afford to generously bankroll it. It won't ever amount to anything more than sheer bribery to appease Putin. That's why he's struggled to sell it outside of a handful of Central Asian countries.

Putin knows that if Ukraine actually ends up associating with the EU, it's only a matter of time before Russia does as well. The benefits to the young people of this region are many (freedom of travel for work or leisure, human rights and democratic fundamentals instituted in their society, etc).

A pro-EU Ukraine doesn't have to be anti-Russia. Most Ukrainians don't even hate Russia due to strong cultural links, but Putin risks increasing anti-Russian sentiment there the more he sticks his thumb in their affairs.

Ukraine could go the direction of, say, Finland. Finland has an open, friendly and historic relationship with Russia, is not a member of Nato, but Finns are part of the EU because Finns very much see themselves as Europeans.

This zero-sum game that Putin and others envision is not the way it needs to be. For one, Ukrainians don't have to necessarily be ideologically in sync with Europeans in order to have an association with them. The US befriends many nations they are ideologically opposed to (i.e. Saudi Arabia), but maintain good relations for other (i.e. economic, military) reasons.

The problem the EU (read: Germany) has is deciding how much cash it's willing to throw at Ukraine for their association. It's going to cost at least $2-3 billion dollars up front and then easily $10 billion over the coming years to implement the necessary changes.

I spoke to the guy who creates the YouTube clips on the Caspian Report and he's going to be releasing some content on the Ukrainian situation very soon. I think his geopolitical analysis is often spot-on. He did a pretty good job at explaining Russia's interest in the Syria situation a few months ago.







After traveling extensively around the Middle East myself, I'm generally of the mind that the world is a better place when US foreign policy is actively engaged in the affairs of other countries (minus needless wars of choice), not when they are absent. The US must do whatever it can to neutralize Russia (and there's no shortage of allies to help them do that), but it seems in the short-term that Putin will wind up benefiting from the situation in Ukraine.

Quote: (02-21-2014 07:46 PM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote:  

It's clear that Russia sees a pro-EU Ukraine as a fundamental threat to its existing order. Putin has worked very hard over the past decade to raise Russia's profile in its region while the US was bogged down in two Middle East wars. Putin has been quoted as saying that the fall of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th Century. Think about that comment and how delusional the man is. He thinks the dismantling of a vicious totalitarian system that saw the likes of mass butchers like Joseph Stalin was WORSE than WWI, WII, Nazis/Holocaust, the nuclear bombing of Japan, etc. Putin very much wants to see the success of his nascent plan for the region known as the Eurasian Customs Union - an economic and cultural union of Russia and its former Soviet states with Moscow at its center. This is an experiment doomed to failure ultimately. The last thing the leaders of the former Soviet states want - after sacrificing so much for their independence - is a resurgent Russia dictating their affairs. The plan will only work to the extent that it provides economic benefits so long as Russia can afford to generously bankroll it. It won't ever amount to anything more than sheer bribery to appease Putin. That's why he's struggled to sell it outside of a handful of Central Asian countries.

Putin knows that if Ukraine actually ends up associating with the EU, it's only a matter of time before Russia does as well. The benefits to the young people of this region are many (freedom of travel for work or leisure, human rights and democratic fundamentals instituted in their society, etc).

A pro-EU Ukraine doesn't have to be anti-Russia. Most Ukrainians don't even hate Russia due to strong cultural links, but Putin risks increasing anti-Russian sentiment there the more he sticks his thumb in their affairs.

Ukraine could go the direction of, say, Finland. Finland has an open, friendly and historic relationship with Russia, is not a member of Nato, but Finns are part of the EU because Finns very much see themselves as Europeans.

This zero-sum game that Putin and others envision is not the way it needs to be. For one, Ukrainians don't have to necessarily be ideologically in sync with Europeans in order to have an association with them. The US befriends many nations they are ideologically opposed to (i.e. Saudi Arabia), but maintain good relations for other (i.e. economic, military) reasons.

The problem the EU (read: Germany) has is deciding how much cash it's willing to throw at Ukraine for their association. It's going to cost at least $2-3 billion dollars up front and then easily $10 billion over the coming years to implement the necessary changes.

I spoke to the guy who creates the YouTube clips on the Caspian Report and he's going to be releasing some content on the Ukrainian situation very soon. I think his geopolitical analysis is often spot-on. He did a pretty good job at explaining Russia's interest in the Syria situation a few months ago.

After traveling extensively around the Middle East myself, I'm generally of the mind that the world is a better place when US foreign policy is actively engaged in the affairs of other countries (minus needless wars of choice), not when they are absent. The US must do whatever it can to neutralize Russia (and there's no shortage of allies to help them do that), but it seems in the short-term that Putin will wind up benefiting from the situation in Ukraine.

No offence to you, but that video is way off. Russia has a very strong reason to be involved in Syria:
   

Ever wonder why nobody is interested in other dictatorships like Sudan and Ethiopia? Think about all that oil they don't have.

Also, the line about the collapse of the Soviet Union being the largest geopolitical event is often repeated and always misquoted. He was talking about the economic effects of those events. By that measure, it affected the largest number of people for the longest time.

"Putin knows that if Ukraine actually ends up associating with the EU, it's only a matter of time before Russia does as well."
I don't know where you got that idea from, but if you think that, you've seriously underestimated Russian pride. Russia and Russians are not European and never will be.