Quote: (03-07-2019 08:31 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  

Visa and Mastercard enable people to buy stuff on credit, I remember being 20 years old, applying for a credit card online and the next thing you know I get a credit card in the mail with a 10k limit a week later. It's not like you can start a crypto wallet and receive thousands or tens of thousands worth of credit.

You don't say lol.

Edit - technically Visa and MasterCard are just payment processors. The issuing and acquiring banks allow people to buy stuff on credit.

Quote: (03-07-2019 08:32 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

I didn't say credit cards were going to be totally replaced in 2-5 years. I said they would be really hurt. For credit cards to fully die, I think more old people have to die first. We will absolutely be able to shop at a growing number of merchants with bitcoin and LN in 2-5 years.

Thanks for the clarification, Swordfish, that's part of the reason we might do some back and forth, and you would not expect guys to agree on all the details, anyhow..... especially when we get into speculations about how some of the adoption will evolve.

So, surely we agree could agree on some parts, including that there are slightly different use cases for BTC and credit cards, and also, there could be some alts that might better get into some of those areas than bitcoin... Surely, cannot be clear at this point, and we are not going to have banked people in the west and those with a lot of access to credit thinking about bitcoin in the same kind of ways as someone who is not banked and does not have access to credit in other parts of the world..

Also, there can be some devaluation of money or even transferring value international that might not be as obvious to someone who lives in a place that does not have as noticeable fiat devaluations such as those occurring in some other places such as Venezuela or Zimbabwe or other places where governments have been having inabilities getting their currency to maintain any kind of semblance of steady rather than decreasing value.

Quote: (03-07-2019 08:39 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Quote: (03-07-2019 08:32 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

I didn't say credit cards were going to be totally replaced in 2-5 years. I said they would be really hurt. For credit cards to fully die, I think more old people have to die first. We will absolutely be able to shop at a growing number of merchants with bitcoin and LN in 2-5 years.

Thanks for the clarification, Swordfish, that's part of the reason we might do some back and forth, and you would not expect guys to agree on all the details, anyhow..... especially when we get into speculations about how some of the adoption will evolve.

So, surely we agree could agree on some parts, including that there are slightly different use cases for BTC and credit cards, and also, there could be some alts that might better get into some of those areas than bitcoin... Surely, cannot be clear at this point, and we are not going to have banked people in the west and those with a lot of access to credit thinking about bitcoin in the same kind of ways as someone who is not banked and does not have access to credit in other parts of the world..

Also, there can be some devaluation of money or even transferring value international that might not be as obvious to someone who lives in a place that does not have as noticeable fiat devaluations such as those occurring in some other places such as Venezuela or Zimbabwe or other places where governments have been having inabilities getting their currency to maintain any kind of semblance of steady rather than decreasing value.

Yeah I am just adding my 2 cents to my pickup homies. I am not trying to fear monger but fiat currencies in general are not in good shape after the 10+ years of Quantitive Easing after the 2008 crisis. This is also bullish for bitcoin though.

Quote: (03-07-2019 08:44 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

Quote: (03-07-2019 08:39 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Quote: (03-07-2019 08:32 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

I didn't say credit cards were going to be totally replaced in 2-5 years. I said they would be really hurt. For credit cards to fully die, I think more old people have to die first. We will absolutely be able to shop at a growing number of merchants with bitcoin and LN in 2-5 years.

Thanks for the clarification, Swordfish, that's part of the reason we might do some back and forth, and you would not expect guys to agree on all the details, anyhow..... especially when we get into speculations about how some of the adoption will evolve.

So, surely we agree could agree on some parts, including that there are slightly different use cases for BTC and credit cards, and also, there could be some alts that might better get into some of those areas than bitcoin... Surely, cannot be clear at this point, and we are not going to have banked people in the west and those with a lot of access to credit thinking about bitcoin in the same kind of ways as someone who is not banked and does not have access to credit in other parts of the world..

Also, there can be some devaluation of money or even transferring value international that might not be as obvious to someone who lives in a place that does not have as noticeable fiat devaluations such as those occurring in some other places such as Venezuela or Zimbabwe or other places where governments have been having inabilities getting their currency to maintain any kind of semblance of steady rather than decreasing value.

Yeah I am just adding my 2 cents to my pickup homies. I am not trying to fear monger but fiat currencies in general are not in good shape after the 10+ years of Quantitive Easing after the 2008 crisis. This is also bullish for bitcoin though.

Sometimes I criticize goldbugs for predicting the downfall of fiat for the past 40 years, and surely there is some correctness in their claims that fiat manipulates the fuck out of system - and that is why we refer to fiat in that kind of way.

NOT that you are making the goldbug claim of impending doom in the form of an Armageddon, and I don't even believe there is a need for such a scenario to play out for bitcoin to increase in dominance and really become more and more central in terms of either becoming a kind of world currency (which also could take 50 years or more to play out) or just serving a role in which it keeps a variety of traditional financial incumbent systems more honest in terms of it is going to be a lot more difficult for them to get away with certain kinds of shenanigans if the employment of such tactics merely causes the masses to increasingly flow out of their systems and into bitcoin (which seems to be a similar thing that you are suggesting as an evolutionary outcome).

In other words, it seems to be a great idea to know about bitcoin and to develop systems in order to take at least some kind of stake into it - because with the passage of time, not only will we learn from our attempts at participation in bitcoin, we are likely going to profit quite well from just having some money invested in that direction while normies are still confused about either what bitcoin is or how to actually get involved and take some kind of a stake in it.

Quote: (03-07-2019 06:55 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Quote: (03-07-2019 06:48 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  

JJG when are we hitting 4k? I'm tired of this hovering around 3700-3900.

Soon. Tm

Revisiting this point.

In the past few months, we have had several attempts at testing whether we are going to be able to break above resistance at $4,200, and I am surely looking forwards to breaking higher than $4,200, even though at the same time there is likely going to be one or two additional resistance points above $4,500 and in the sub-$5k arena.

One scenario that might bring us out of the bear market would be to break into $6k arena and to stay there, and another scenario would be to be able to stay between $4,500 and sub $6k for more than 6 months, and it seems that either case would be a sign that we might be out of our current bear market.

Until then, we are within decently reasonable striking distance of the current low of $3,122, which seems to be some of the hyperwave and other bear theorists wet dream support breaking point that may or may not happen. I am still giving the breaking below $3,122 a slightly higher than 50% chance .. perhaps in the 52% arena, currently.. and that is merely a kind of shot in the dark guess.

I doubt that we could argue that staying in the $3,200 to $4,200 price range would be bullish, unless, perhaps, if we stay here longer than a year, then maybe we could start to assert that even this range of $3,700-$3,900 that you complain of, Sidney Crosby, would start to muster up a kind of new bullish significance.

Was looking through my old photos and found this from December 2017 -£13.6k day lol

upload

I assumed 4200 was unbreakable but the more it gets tested the weaker it becomes. It's been tested 4 times now and we are going for a fifth. Despite bear market there's a lot of news that makes it seem like we are in the bull market. Binance ICOs are doing 5x, a lot of coins are posting very good gains recently (LTC, EOS, BNB, ETH, TRX). Out of the top 10 only XRP, XLM, BCH lost money over the past few months. These things will bring BTC price higher as more people will want to put fiat in rather than cash out. Breaking 4200 means it probably goes to 5300 then probably back down unless it can break the 200 MA. Unless the 200MA is broken and we me make a higher high than 6500 and manage to stay there most will not see it being out of the bear market.

Here's my current thinking of three possible scenarios that would definitionally (at least in my definition) get us out of this current bear market and into a bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Here's QuadrigaCX update that was published here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.html?topic=...sg50071607

>>>>>>>
Here is our update about the QuadrigaCX case, also published on our twitter account:
https://twitter.com/whitestream5/status/...8100576256

Since EY lately discovered some of QuadrigaCX cold wallet addresses, we managed to analyze some of them.
Together with insights that we already extract from QuadrigaCX hot wallets, we can shed some light on QuadrigaCX Bitcoin transactions from the last six month.

The time period we checked was since July 2018 to February 2019, the average Bitcoin price at this time frame is around $5,700.
We saw that both QuadrigaCX cold and hot wallets sent around 5,571 BTC to a suspicious intermediary wallet at this time period.
We suspect that this wallet belongs to QuadrigaCX too.

QuadrigaCX hot wallet sent to the suspicious intermediary wallet 3,432 BTC, which is around $19,500,000 US.
QuadrigaCX hot wallet:
https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/00.../addresses

QuadrigaCX cold wallet sent to the suspicious intermediary wallet 2,139 BTC, which is around $12,200,000 US.
QuadrigaCX cold wallet:
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1...f8LspCKBYP

The suspicious intermediary wallet:
https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/00.../addresses

The suspicious wallet has interactions with more Bitcoin exchanges and not just from QuadrigaCX, but most of his incomes are from QuadrigaCX.
The suspicious wallet sent most of his funds to two Chinese exchanges, Huobi and Binance.

Around 1,176 BTC were sent to Binance, which is $6,700,000 US.
Around 5,263 BTC were sent to Huobi, which is $30,000,000 US.

Huobi wallet:
https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/Huobi.com-2

Binance wallet:
https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/00.../addresses

Thank you.
whitestream - Blockchain Intelligence
https://whitestream.io<<<<<<<

Quote: (03-08-2019 03:45 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  

I assumed 4200 was unbreakable but the more it gets tested the weaker it becomes. It's been tested 4 times now and we are going for a fifth. Despite bear market there's a lot of news that makes it seem like we are in the bull market. Binance ICOs are doing 5x, a lot of coins are posting very good gains recently (LTC, EOS, BNB, ETH, TRX). Out of the top 10 only XRP, XLM, BCH lost money over the past few months. These things will bring BTC price higher as more people will want to put fiat in rather than cash out. Breaking 4200 means it probably goes to 5300 then probably back down unless it can break the 200 MA. Unless the 200MA is broken and we me make a higher high than 6500 and manage to stay there most will not see it being out of the bear market.

I remain skeptical, but these are good points.

Quote: (03-08-2019 03:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Here's my current thinking of three possible scenarios that would definitionally (at least in my definition) get us out of this current bear market and into a bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

If we can break and hold 4200 i'm considering that as a trend reversal - that will be the first higher high on the weekly since dec 2017.

Quote: (03-08-2019 12:40 PM)Pinocchio Wrote:  

Quote: (03-08-2019 03:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Here's my current thinking of three possible scenarios that would definitionally (at least in my definition) get us out of this current bear market and into a bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

If we can break and hold 4200 i'm considering that as a trend reversal - that will be the first higher high on the weekly since dec 2017.

Yes. Each of us is going to have differing definitional price points, and that is why I attempted to describe both BTC price and time elements to my assessment of what it would take for me to conceptually transform out of considering this a bear market.

For me, the bearmarket label merely grants that within the "trend is your friend" ideas about BTC price movements, the odds for the BTC price going down are greater than the odds for the price to move up. Once conceptually we transform into a bull market, then the odds change, at least in my way of framing the matter.

So accordingly, I personally believe that we need more than a mere breaking of resistance at $4,200 in order to change the current bear market status and the trend. In other words, in my thinking merely breaking above $4,200 might be good short term price performance, but it is not enough to remove any kind of reasonable fear that the $3,122 bottom is NOT yet in.

I could have also listed a scenario in which the BTC price breaks below, $3,320, but since the BTC price is currently above that amount, I don't feel any need to describe such a hypothetical scenario, at this time.

Also, of course, personally, out of the three scenarios that I did list, I would prefer the quickest way out of this, which is scenario 1, but currently, for me, the odds of that scenario happening any time soon, seem quite low.

I am not sure if this below-linked article is saying anything different than other bitcoin articles in terms of bitcoin serving as a kind of longer term investment.

Largely, I am posting it as a timely update.... and maybe as a kind of seeming optimism that the bottom could, perhaps, be in? a BIG PERHAPS.

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/03/08/no-bi...hing-4000/

Here's an interesting tweet list of a few of bitcoin's recent "non-innovations" hahahahahaha Interesting discussion in the tweet responses, too.

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1104379821864439808

https://coinspice.io/news/btc-lightning-...ince-2015/

BTC Lightning Network Problems 18 Months Away from Being Solved Since 2015

Quote:Quote:

TL;DR: Newer folks to bitcoin core (BTC) can be excused for being a little confused. What’s this Lightning Network (LN) solution so in the news, so hyped? That Jack guy, head of Twitter, is all for it, so LN can’t be too bad. And when they do even a modest amount of investigation, LN turns out to be not quite ready. Lots of things in technology over promise and under deliver, of course, but what those new to the space might not realize is how Lightning has been the new-new thing for BTC since 2015. A new video by Collin Enstad puts it all in perspective.

Quote: (03-06-2019 09:07 AM)redbeard Wrote:  

Quote: (03-06-2019 12:33 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

Quote: (03-05-2019 10:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Quote: (03-05-2019 10:05 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

You know JJG, you don't have to respond with an essay to every single post on this thread

Why do you care? Aren't you interested in ETH and the pie-in-the-sky flippening, anyhow?

I love this thread, it just keeps on providing the best jokes.

I got a special meme ready for the moment Ethereum finally flips Shitcoin. Can't wait.

Not happening.

Love the confidence. And in honor of it, changing my signature

Quote: (03-10-2019 09:35 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

https://coinspice.io/news/btc-lightning-...ince-2015/

BTC Lightning Network Problems 18 Months Away from Being Solved Since 2015

Quote:Quote:

TL;DR: Newer folks to bitcoin core (BTC) can be excused for being a little confused. What’s this Lightning Network (LN) solution so in the news, so hyped? That Jack guy, head of Twitter, is all for it, so LN can’t be too bad. And when they do even a modest amount of investigation, LN turns out to be not quite ready. Lots of things in technology over promise and under deliver, of course, but what those new to the space might not realize is how Lightning has been the new-new thing for BTC since 2015. A new video by Collin Enstad puts it all in perspective.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdVqZ0UOMmU[/video]

[https://coinspice.io/wp-content/uploads/...AAvAjz.png[/img]

I did spend 13 minutes of my life watch that obviously disingenuous and seemingly ill-informed and biased youtuber. Sure, he is a good looking guy, so despite his patronizing tone, he is not unpleasant to watch, and he has a decent voice.

Yet, you should take that guy with a BIG ass grain of salt, and pretty much the same criticisms that I raised earlier in various posts in this thread about bitcoin naysayers and lightning network bashers is applicable to his content and various strawman, out of context and calling it too early talking points, and also seeming to want to suggest that if lighting network were to fail, then bitcoin would fail, too.... which is another dumb point that ignores that the use of lightning network is optional and in very early days.. as he wants to inappropriately repeat various exaggerations, even by saying that lightning has been "the solution" since 2015, when it only went on testnet (that went on the live network, in a rogue kind of way against the recommendation of a lot of bitcoin developers) in January 2018.

Quote: (03-10-2019 01:52 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Quote: (03-10-2019 09:35 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

https://coinspice.io/news/btc-lightning-...ince-2015/

BTC Lightning Network Problems 18 Months Away from Being Solved Since 2015

Quote:Quote:

TL;DR: Newer folks to bitcoin core (BTC) can be excused for being a little confused. What’s this Lightning Network (LN) solution so in the news, so hyped? That Jack guy, head of Twitter, is all for it, so LN can’t be too bad. And when they do even a modest amount of investigation, LN turns out to be not quite ready. Lots of things in technology over promise and under deliver, of course, but what those new to the space might not realize is how Lightning has been the new-new thing for BTC since 2015. A new video by Collin Enstad puts it all in perspective.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdVqZ0UOMmU[/video]

[https://coinspice.io/wp-content/uploads/...AAvAjz.png[/img]

I did spend 13 minutes of my life watch that obviously disingenuous and seemingly ill-informed and biased youtuber. Sure, he is a good looking guy, so despite his patronizing tone, he is not unpleasant to watch, and he has a decent voice.

Yet, you should take that guy with a BIG ass grain of salt, and pretty much the same criticisms that I raised earlier in various posts in this thread about bitcoin naysayers and lightning network bashers is applicable to his content and various strawman, out of context and calling it too early talking points, and also seeming to want to suggest that if lighting network were to fail, then bitcoin would fail, too.... which is another dumb point that ignores that the use of lightning network is optional and in very early days.. as he wants to inappropriately repeat various exaggerations, even by saying that lightning has been "the solution" since 2015, when it only went on testnet (that went on the live network, in a rogue kind of way against the recommendation of a lot of bitcoin developers) in January 2018.

By the way, a website that shows an ongoing growth in various aspects of the lightning network seems to negate almost every single point of the dumbass's (aka Collin Enstad) lightning network and bitcoin naysaying video.

https://1ml.com/statistics

The growth in lightning network is regular and ongoing and seems to be building relatively fast on a fairly steady basis.. with some growth spurts, here and there, and currently shows 7,2091 lightning nodes, 34,297 channels and a total capacity of 774.2 BTC.

By the way, in my earlier response, I forgot to mention at least one additional dumb and seemingly ill-informed talking point that Collin Enstad mentioned in the end of his video to show how out of touch he is, which was that bcash represents the original satoshi vision to transact. blah blah blah... and I had already responded to the nonsense of such talking point in my earlier responsive posts in this thread.

One last point, his reference to Jack Dorsey also seems to be attempting to spin a positive into a negative. Of course, the Jack Dorsey embrace of bitcoin and lightning is great for attempting to expand bitcoin adoption through twitter and square, while at the same time showing that Dorsey is taking a decent risk in his attempts to experiment and innovate on a system (namely the lightning network) that is far from user-friendly - yet it has already been shown in such early twitter stages of attempting to incorporate lighting network that a decent number of twitter users are trying to use the interface... very bullish, overall, even if very early in levels of adoption.

In just a short period of time (three months according to the tweet) tipping_me has experienced a decent amount of lightning network sign-ups and application installations, yet I believe that the twitter incorporation of tipping_me lightning network is a lot younger.. maybe only a few weeks since tipping_me was added as an option in twitter (early days... early days).

https://twitter.com/kerooke/status/1102669700872384512

A nearly 10 day old tweet from PlanB stating why BTC "will not" drop below $2k.

Believable? That's another question.

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/statu...44289?s=21

>>>>>>>>>planB
‏......
Why #bitcoin will not drop under $2k:
1) Miners already capitulated (difficulty -25% Nov/Dec)
2) Too close to the Halving (14 months)
3) BTC never dropped below geometric mean ($2750)
4) BTC never dropped below 50% of stock-to-flow model ($5500)
5) RSI bottomed at (42) now rising<<<<<<<<<

I believe some guys here (at least I do.... hahahahaha) appreciate Tom Lee's bitcoin bullish analysis, and here is a link to a recent interview with him.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/14/another-...m-lee.html

Broken the wall of 1000 BTC capacity on LN

https://1ml.com/statistics

https://medium.com/@danhedl/planting-bit...bd1459cb23

Quote: (03-16-2019 04:22 AM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  

Broken the wall of 1000 BTC capacity on LN

https://1ml.com/statistics

I think that a lot of BTC HODLers appreciate that LN network capacity is growing and seeming to show a kind of power.

However, we should continue to be skeptical of possibilities that LN is going to be attacked, and there is some concern about abilities to protect LN from attacks in which growth of nodes and channels are not organic but instead a kind of astroturf... that could be used to attack or just to cause worse user experiences on the LN network.

A series of tweets and responses from hodlenaut describes the issue. He says: "20 of the 21 biggest capacity nodes on LN are run by LNBIG/LNOneYear" which seems to be one or two players currently controlling about 600 BTC worth of the LN network nodes... and might NOT be good to route through them or just to attempt to write them off as if they are not contributing in an honest kind of way to the LN network.

https://twitter.com/hodlonaut/status/110...1482798081

Regarding our recent visit to $4k, I will concede that $4k is not any kind of done deal, which means that we are going to have to revisit $4k again at some time in the near future (hopefully). Hopefully, before Tuesday or so, but it is understandable that the road up to, even sub $5k BTCs, could take a decent amount of time to play out.

I don't want to engage in scapegoatism logic, but I still believe that it is reasonable to blame shitcoins for a continued inability for bitcoin to go up until moar of the froth is purged from those various shitcoin twats.

If you take a current snapshot of the past week of BTC's price appreciation, as compared to many shitcoins, during that time, many of those shitcoins are price appreciating more than 5% while bitcoin only price appreciated 1% or so.... and some of them had price appreciation numbers in the 15% arena.

With shitcoin arrogance like that, it seems to me that they gotta be beaten up a whole hell of a lot more in order that they are a bit more humble bumbles - instead of having some kind of false presumptions that they are leading price, when they are not.

Bitcoin remains the dog.. not those arrogant pump-filled imitators.

So, yeah, maybe bitcoin's price is ONLY at these continued decently high levels of about 3x from three years ago, because of some of the symbiotic price backs and forths from shit coins and ICOs - including money coming into the space through pump and dump scams and shitty imitations, and it seems to me that an ongoing purging out of that crap is going to make it much more difficult to transition into a BTC bull market.

I remain as anxious as any other BTC HODLers to transition the fuck out of this current BTC bear market, but have to concede that it could take some more time to get out of here..

Anyhow, largely I stick with the assertion of my earlier post regarding 3 scenarios to get out of our current ongoing bear market.

i think we're going to trade sideways for 3-6 months, i'm betting on the 'bottom being in' already and doing a lot of accumulation of btc at these prices. I think it's good for bitcoin to have some life coming back into alts. - shows confidence is slowly returning to market.