The Hyperwave Team's Viewpoint in multiple videos on their channel is that Hyperwave Phase 7 will not complete until Phase 7 retests the Phase one low of 1,000 USD. Simple A-B-C wave analysis of Wave C equal to Wave A equals a target retest of 1242 USD. And even this range maybe optimistic as there are a huge number of orders on the VPVR (Volume Profile-Visible Range) at
670 and 189.

Therefore if you are buying into "The BTC Bottom is now" Mantra at 3863 right now be sure to at least hedge with a 20% or less Trailing Stop Loss and some 1,000 and 500 pt Puts (Shorts) on Bitmex etc. (Not sure if you can short BTC on the new ABBRA virtual wallet and trading platform yet).

Hyperwave Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLJxbdX...QSw/videos

Quote: (03-07-2019 01:26 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

The Hyperwave Team's Viewpoint in multiple videos on their channel is that Hyperwave Phase 7 will not complete until Phase 7 retests the Phase one low of 1,000 USD. Simple A-B-C wave analysis of Wave C equal to Wave A equals a target retest of 1242 USD. And even this range maybe optimistic as there are a huge number of orders on the VPVR (Volume Profile-Visible Range) at
670 and 189.

Therefore if you are buying into "The BTC Bottom is now" Mantra at 3863 right now be sure to at least hedge with a 20% or less Trailing Stop Loss and some 1,000 and 500 pt Puts (Shorts) on Bitmex etc. (Not sure if you can short BTC on the new ABBRA virtual wallet and trading platform yet).

Hyperwave Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLJxbdX...QSw/videos

You don't need to short bitcoin in order to prepare for "the bottom is not in" scenarios.

It has proven dumb to short bitcoin on a lot of occassions in the past, including when significant price corrections have already occurred, and also if you are not used to and experienced with trading - including how traders on various exchanges that employ margin trading and shorting abilities, manipulate the fuck out of margin trades in order to force stop losses to execute and then the price moves in the opposite direction, and you will be much better off just attempting to accumulate BTC, including having fiat available to buy more BTC, just in case some of the bear theories play out, whether they are the hyperwave theories or other "the bottom is not in" scenarios.

VPVR tracks past orders to find potential levels of resistance and support. (IE if a lot of people bought and sold bitcoin at 3000$, VPVR will show a huge spike at 3000$)
On its own I don't think VPVR is a bull or bear flag, so saying that it's showing heavy activity at the sub-1k level doesn't necessarily mean much.
I haven't looked at a VPVR for Bitcoin in a long time because my tradingview subscription is no longer active, though, so it may be that I'm missing something?

Quote: (03-07-2019 01:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Quote: (03-07-2019 01:07 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings Take on the...
[edited out]

I recall some pretty dumb stuff coming from the Weiss raters in previous articles last year-ish, with their seeming inabilities to get what differentiates bitcoin from other cryptos, and their assessment in the above quoted article is a lot better in that regard.

So kudos to you, Deepdiver on finding and providing that article.. and it may reflect that you are also starting to get what is bitcoin, since I recall you bashing on bitcoin quite a bit, too, last year-ish.

Last yearish Bitcoin Dropped from nearly $20K (Coinbase ATH 19,891) Hyperwave Phase 4 Peak to current Phase 7 down currently Coinbase 3,870 Let's see 19891-3870= 16,021 LOSS. Down 80.5% and per the Hyperwave team must Complete its retest of the Phase 1 beginning at $1,000 before the next BTC Bull Run can begin.

Of course the Omniscient JJG a confirmed crypto fanatic and self determined Guru deigns to condescend to those who discuss facts as "Bitcoin Bashing" especially key technical analysis questions like 1. Where have we come from? Where are we now? Where are we going to?

As for Weiss Crypto they have one of the most comprehensive and balanced Crypto rating systems based upon both adoption and enhanced technologies with Bitcoin rated C+ and Ripple, Stellar, EOS and Cardano at B+ their highest current rating.

I happen to like the Litecoin and Monero projects as coins I regularly actually use in addition to some of the stable-coins for trading.

FYI:

Disclosure of [Weiss] Model Components:
https://weisscryptocurrencyratings.com/about

To be consistent with the transparency that has become the hallmark of the cryptocurrency space, Weiss Ratings’ intent over time is to disclose as much as possible about its model.

However, decades of experience in the financial marketplace indicate that, once armed with the specific formulas or processes of a ratings model, some rated entities seek to game the system: They try to manipulate data they can influence or control with the goal of achieving an unfair advantage. To help avoid this outcome, disclosure must proceed in phases, beginning with a broad description of the four key indexes in the Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings model. These are:

The Risk Index. A composite of sub-indexes that measure (a) relative and absolute price fluctuations over multiple time frames, (b) declines from peak to trough in terms of frequency and magnitude, © market bias, whether up or down, and other factors.

The Reward Index. A composite of sub-indexes that evaluate (a) returns compared to moving averages, (b) absolute returns compared to a benchmark, © smoothed returns compared to a benchmark, and other factors.

The Technology Index. A composite of sub-indexes calculated by a manual analysis of publicly available white papers, public discussion forums or announcements, and open source code to evaluate the protocols underlying each cryptocurrency. Factors considered include the level of anonymity, the sophistication of monetary policy, governance capabilities, the ability or flexibility to improve code, energy efficiency, scaling solutions, interoperability with other blockchains and many more.

The Adoption Index. A composite of sub-indexes that evaluate transaction speed and scalability, market penetration, network security, decentralization of block production, network capacity, developer participation, public acceptance, plus other key factors.

Each of these indexes is appropriately weighted, compared and then evaluated in terms of how it interacts with the other three indexes systemically. The end result of the analytical process is the Weiss Cryptocurrency Rating.

Overall, Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings provide a well-rounded, solidly-grounded opinion based on hard facts and steeped in four decades of ratings experience. They can serve as much-needed cryptocurrency GPS for investors.

What I like about Weiss is they avoid the Crypto Fanboy FUD/FOMO pump and dump hype.

Insert BitConnect Tarzan Yell here for effect...

I dunno, Weiss's ratings felt pretty gimmicky to me. Maybe I'm just sour on them because they published the first of them right before the end of the boom, so they came out and said things like "Cardano is a B+!" right before Cardano got hit with something like a 90% drawdown.

How well have Weiss's ratings correlated to returns over the past year and three months? Did higher rated cryptos have less losses?

Quote: (03-07-2019 02:40 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

VPVR tracks past orders to find potential levels of resistance and support. (IE if a lot of people bought and sold bitcoin at 3000$, VPVR will show a huge spike at 3000$)
On its own I don't think VPVR is a bull or bear flag, so saying that it's showing heavy activity at the sub-1k level doesn't necessarily mean much.
I haven't looked at a VPVR for Bitcoin in a long time because my tradingview subscription is no longer active, though, so it may be that I'm missing something?

FYI:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD...5-to-2019/

(Coinbase Data)
Volume Profile-Visible Range Buy Sell Order Clusters at key price points - basically what the entire BTC Crowd of Traders are betting their money at on Coinbase...

BTC VPVR TPO (Time Price Opportunities) Clusters Chart Timeframe 2015 to 2019:
6,350
3,890
2,600
1,000 interesting that this is the Hyperwave Phase One retest target...
650
189 Current POC or Point of Control on the Longer Timeframe BTC daily chart as a bold red horizontal line.

Quote: (03-07-2019 03:04 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

I dunno, Weiss's ratings felt pretty gimmicky to me. Maybe I'm just sour on them because they published the first of them right before the end of the boom, so they came out and said things like "Cardano is a B+!" right before Cardano got hit with something like a 90% drawdown.

How well have Weiss's ratings correlated to returns over the past year and three months? Did higher rated cryptos have less losses?

Weiss' disclaimer is that their model is optimized for long term viability of any specific Crypto Project with disdain for ETH type Token Projects as money grabs - and not optimized for Trading Purposes so more a Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis like Hyperwave which by comparison are hardcore Bitcoin Core maximalists who have complete disdain for all Alt Coins - useful to understand both sides of the Crypto spectrum.

Interesting that Weiss rates EOS and Cardano Technologies greater than Ethereum though ETH has greater usage and adoption currently.

Quote: (03-07-2019 02:48 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

Of course the Omniscient JJG a confirmed crypto fanatic and self determined Guru deigns to condescend to those who discuss facts as "Bitcoin Bashing" especially key technical analysis questions like 1. Where have we come from? Where are we now? Where are we going to?

I suppose it is one thing if you are just putting out reports of others, or if you are attempting to engage with the bitcoin topic and to make some of your own analysis about the topic based on current facts and logic and attempting to assign reasonable likelihoods to the future.. if we are talking about likelihood of success or price or whatever.

I have never proclaimed to know the future price direction of bitcoin, especially the short term, and at most I am sometimes will assign 60/40 probabilities .. and that is when I rarely feel strongly.. and more often I am assigning in the arena of 50/50 probabilities to short term price directions while preparing for either price direction.

Perhaps, I am more critical of other posters who are making more certain probability assignments of short term predictions, and I am also presumptive that long term betting on bitcoin is likely going to pay off, even if you make some mistakes so long as you engage in dollar cost averaging and buying on dips.

Of course guys are responsible for themselves, but that is what I believe to be a decently sound strategy including not investing more than you can afford to lose or gambling too much with your investment. A fairly conservative approach in my opinion.

So, even though i have some preferences about what is good or bad or misleading information, I post a lot about bitcoin, and I can be discerning of positions of others, I doubt that I am proclaiming to be a bitcoin or crypto guru, even though you are making that label.

So in that regard, I don't tend to focus on non-bitcoin developments, except to the extent that they sometimes overlap with what is going on in bitcoin and therefore, I learn about various cryptos through that kind of incidental exposure rather than trying to decipher exactly the level of shit or pump and dump of the various non bitcoin projects, and thus my main focus has continued to have been bitcoin, so "crypto" fanatic seems quite misplacing of a label especially since I am fairly irritated by lumping bitcoin with cryptos.. as you should have noticed over my many posts.

Quote: (03-07-2019 02:48 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

What I like about Weiss is they avoid the Crypto Fanboy FUD/FOMO pump and dump hype.

It is not a matter of whether you are a bitcoin or crypto fanboy, but whether you understand how bitcoin is different from crypto generally... even though they both have technological aspects. In other words, getting caught up on the technology seems to misplace the understanding of what is valuable about bitcoin.

If you are attempting to make a lump categorization as bitcoin and crypto based on mere technology, then perhaps you don't understand the sound money aspect of bitcoin and/or various network effects that differentiates bitcoin from the others.. as the dog wagging the tail.. instead of getting too focused on the tail.

In my earlier post from today in regard to the Weiss group Facebook coin assessment, I may have been too early to praise a recognition of that ability of you or the Weiss ratings group to distinguish bitcoin from crypto.

Quote: (03-07-2019 03:22 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

Weiss' disclaimer is that their model is optimized for long term viability of any specific Crypto Project with disdain for ETH type Token Projects as money grabs - and not optimized for Trading Purposes so more a Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis like Hyperwave which by comparison are hardcore Bitcoin Core maximalists who have complete disdain for all Alt Coins - useful to understand both sides of the Crypto spectrum.

I do think I remember reading that. It's interesting reading, but in a sentiment based market like crypto I'm not entirely sure how valuable those ratings would be. ETH is having a lot of issues with its technology upgrades, and the ice age is hitting, so I'm not surprised they give it a lower rating.

Thanks for the VPVR link. It's cool to look at, particularly because it shows a huge VPVR spike right where we're at now. I wonder if that's an artifact of the fact that we've been ranging in this area for a while, or if that was there before.

I got two interesting takeaways from that chart, firstly, that the VPVR indicates that support at 3000 may not be as significant as I expected. 3000$ was psychologically a huge number for me, just because of the time when I got into bitcoin (When I was first starting there were "Will bitcoin break 3k" articles everywhere) so I assumed it would function as an extremely strong support point. VPVR indicates this may not be the case, and thinking back, 10,000$ was an even more significant number psychologically, but it provided no significant support at all!

I would say that before we think about the sub-1000$ VPVR points, the more important one would be in the 2200-2700$ area, which you pointed out in your link. There's a long way to fall before even 860$ is in play.

EDIT: God it feels so nice to just talk TA with somebody who's using the indicators properly, who isn't making crazy, goofy predictions, and is just saying what they think in a calm, level manner. It feels like it's been FOREVER.

Quote: (03-07-2019 03:37 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Quote: (03-07-2019 02:48 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

Of course the Omniscient JJG a confirmed crypto fanatic and self determined Guru deigns to condescend to those who discuss facts as "Bitcoin Bashing" especially key technical analysis questions like 1. Where have we come from? Where are we now? Where are we going to?

I suppose it is one thing if you are just putting out reports of others, or if you are attempting to engage with the bitcoin topic and to make some of your own analysis about the topic based on current facts and logic and attempting to assign reasonable likelihoods to the future.. if we are talking about likelihood of success or price or whatever.

I have never proclaimed to know the future price direction of bitcoin, especially the short term, and at most I am sometimes will assign 60/40 probabilities .. and that is when I rarely feel strongly.. and more often I am assigning in the arena of 50/50 probabilities to short term price directions while preparing for either price direction.

Perhaps, I am more critical of other posters who are making more certain probability assignments of short term predictions, and I am also presumptive that long term betting on bitcoin is likely going to pay off, even if you make some mistakes so long as you engage in dollar cost averaging and buying on dips.

Of course guys are responsible for themselves, but that is what I believe to be a decently sound strategy including not investing more than you can afford to lose or gambling too much with your investment. A fairly conservative approach in my opinion.

So, even though i have some preferences about what is good or bad or misleading information, I post a lot about bitcoin, and I can be discerning of positions of others, I doubt that I am proclaiming to be a bitcoin or crypto guru, even though you are making that label.

So in that regard, I don't tend to focus on non-bitcoin developments, except to the extent that they sometimes overlap with what is going on in bitcoin and therefore, I learn about various cryptos through that kind of incidental exposure rather than trying to decipher exactly the level of shit or pump and dump of the various non bitcoin projects, and thus my main focus has continued to have been bitcoin, so "crypto" fanatic seems quite misplacing of a label especially since I am fairly irritated by lumping bitcoin with cryptos.. as you should have noticed over my many posts.

Quote: (03-07-2019 02:48 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

What I like about Weiss is they avoid the Crypto Fanboy FUD/FOMO pump and dump hype.

It is not a matter of whether you are a bitcoin or crypto fanboy, but whether you understand how bitcoin is different from crypto generally... even though they both have technological aspects. In other words, getting caught up on the technology seems to misplace the understanding of what is valuable about bitcoin.

If you are attempting to make a lump categorization as bitcoin and crypto based on mere technology, then perhaps you don't understand the sound money aspect of bitcoin and/or various network effects that differentiates bitcoin from the others.. as the dog wagging the tail.. instead of getting too focused on the tail.

In my earlier post from today in regard to the Weiss group Facebook coin assessment, I may have been too early to praise a recognition of that ability of you or the Weiss ratings group to distinguish bitcoin from crypto.

LOL - JJG Again displays his acute condescension to RVFers sharing useful information and his command of How to win friends and influence people NOT...

https://www.amazon.com/How-Win-Friends-I...0671027034

OBTW as pertains to the Hyperwave Team if you sit through a bunch of their VLOGs on YT etc you will discover they are predicting some spectacular future values for BTC as Bitcoin Maximalists - they are fond of the Book The Bitcoin Standard.

Takeaway after BTC Phase 7 completes at the $1K target the next BTC Bull Run will dwarf the 2017 bull run for a number of reasons. Per Hyperwave at $1K BTC if you acquire a handful you will be relatively wealthy in a 5 to 10 year timeframe of course with caveats.

I will let you do your own research and come back to discuss the possible long scenarios...

Quote: (03-07-2019 03:46 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

3000$ was psychologically a huge number for me, just because of the time when I got into bitcoin (When I was first starting there were "Will bitcoin break 3k" articles everywhere) so I assumed it would function as an extremely strong support point.

I think that in 2015/2016 there were a lot of folks considering $3k and above to be a kind of blow off top. I had frequently considered $3k to $5k to be a rough ball park high end of the blow off top. Surely, there was a lot of surprise getting above the $10k resistance.. which seemed to be extreme scenarios, but also a kind of going through that $10k price arena like butter.

Quote: (03-07-2019 03:46 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

I would say that before we think about the sub-1000$ VPVR points, the more important one would be in the 2200-2700$ area, which you pointed out in your link.

There may be some truth to the $2,200 to $2,700 price arena as a kind of sticking point, and that was an area of floating support during the discussion about the impact (perhaps negative) of the August 2017 forking... and whether that period was going to be bearish or bullish (ended up being bullish and around $2,600 was the BTC price jumping off point for that part of the 2017 bull run that ended up in the steepest part of the exponential price growth for that possible "blow off top" from abut $2,600-ish to $19,666.

Quote: (03-07-2019 03:46 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

There's a long way to fall before even 860$ is in play.

That seems like real pie in the sky to be hoping or expecting any kind of price point like that.

Quote: (03-07-2019 03:54 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

LOL - JJG Again displays his acute condescension to RVFers sharing useful information and his command of How to win friends and influence people NOT...

https://www.amazon.com/How-Win-Friends-I...0671027034

It's condescending for me to attempt to outline on the cuff how I approach the bitcoin topic?

Or you think that it is condescending for me to assert that no guy should be relying too much on expert analysis in articles or those of financial institutions without also providing some of his own insight and analysis on the topic?

Anyhow, I have not been trying to be condescending in recent posts, so you may be reading too much into what I had meant to say or that I was attempting to achieve.

By the way, aren't you acting condescending when you are suggesting that I need to read a book about winning over friends?

Quote: (03-07-2019 04:11 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

Takeaway after BTC Phase 7 completes at the $1K target the next BTC Bull Run will dwarf the 2017 bull run for a number of reasons. Per Hyperwave at $1K BTC if you acquire a handful you will be relatively wealthy in a 5 to 10 year timeframe of course with caveats.

Your level of rich might not be much different if you pick up a decent amount of BTC at current prices, either.

Of course, it is not a bad thing to prepare for BTC prices to go down, just in case, but any guy should also be preparing for UP, too, and if the down prices do not happen, and even if BTC prices don't go below $3,122 (the current low), then there could be a significant risk that some guys may end up buying much higher because they got too greedy and they were neither prepared for either price direction and they were attempting to maximize their down buying price (likely too much of a gamble, even if you are describing it as a near certainty coming from supposed experts).

We saw a lot of supposed BTC experts in previous UP waves too, that were waiting to buy at lower prices, and completely missed out or ended up buying way too high because they were not prepared for either UP or the possibility that down would not be as great as they expected.

Quote:Quote:

That seems like real pie in the sky to be hoping or expecting any kind of price point like that.

Well, possibly. I would want to see a much bigger price drop before I started considering it as a serious possibility.

That said, when I read this I got curious about the idea of 860$ being a potential retracement of the entire 2017 advance, so I decided to look up what the price was on January 1st, 2017. (I had a decent idea, of course, but I couldn't remember the exact number.) Lead me to this hilarious article on Coindesk which I think is worth a read for some perspective.

Quote:Quote:

Jan 1, 2017 at 21:04 UTC Updated Jan 3, 2017 at 11:13 UTC

The price of bitcoin inched upward over the course of trading today, passing $1,000 for the first time on CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index since early January 2014.

Though the price (at press time) was still shy of a three-year high of $1,023 set in January of that year, the milestone nonetheless marks a bright beginning to 2017 for the digital currency. (Bitcoin appreciated by more than 100% in 2016).

The price had reached as high as $999 earlier in the day only to fall back to the $960s, a pattern that was similarly observed over the last week of trading as bitcoin failed to build momentum toward $1,000.

The increase notably took place during what was a day of lower-than-average trading volume, 7-day exchange data from Bitcoinity reveals.

As asserted by analysts, 2017 is expected to be a banner year, one that could finally lead the price to pass its all-time high of $1,216.7 set in 2013.

Aah man, if I could live 2017 over again I would be sailing the Mediterranean in a yacht made of supermodels and cocaine. What a time to be alive that was.

A metric showing how much people are willing to pay to use bitcoin can be a much stronger indicator of long term fundamentals than what some financial think tank might consider relevant. There are a lot of metrics, so sometimes it can be difficult to put too much weight on any given one, even though I like this data showing how much fees were paid to BTC miners from 2010 to 2018.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1096764890721804288

JJG when are we hitting 4k? I'm tired of this hovering around 3700-3900.

Quote: (03-07-2019 06:48 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  

JJG when are we hitting 4k? I'm tired of this hovering around 3700-3900.

Soon. Tm

Bitcoin is going to really hurt credit card companies. These companies make about 3% on each transaction, for example that is all visa does, it isn't a bank it is just a processor. Merchants are in the business of making money, and that 3% cuts into the bottom line significantly. If they can use bitcoin and lightning network and get that down to less than a 1%, that is a huge incentive to pivot. Most people already have a smart phone, merchants could justify spending money on bitcoin terminals when they know they will get the investment back and not have to deal with cc companies anymore.

I see this happening in 2-5 years. There is just too much financial incentive for merchants to resist. They took a while to upgrade to EMV because if not they would be liable for breaches. There was no profit motive and hence it was a slow transition. Bitcoin transition will be quicker. One big merchant jumps in the market, others will follow so they are no left behind.

There's a lot of technical hurdles, not just adoption hurdles, that would have to be overcome for this to happen.

Quote: (03-07-2019 08:07 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

There's a lot of technical hurdles, not just adoption hurdles, that would have to be overcome for this to happen.

Absolutely. But they will be solved, just like the internet solved technical hurdles to get to where it is today. There is just too much incentive to ignore. It's going to happen, it's just a matter of when. China never adopted credit cards, they went straight from cash to digital payments.

Everyone gets tied up to daily price speculation, so I'm instead adding some original content. Not only are banks about to be disrupted, cc companies are too. The glory days are over. Humanity has figured out a better solution.

Quote: (03-07-2019 08:09 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

Quote: (03-07-2019 08:07 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

There's a lot of technical hurdles, not just adoption hurdles, that would have to be overcome for this to happen.

Absolutely. But they will be solved, just like the internet solved technical hurdles to get to where it is today. There is just too much incentive to ignore. It's going to happen, it's just a matter of when. China never adopted credit cards, they went straight from cash to digital payments.

There may be significant changes and even competition options in your 2-5 year timeline, but I cannot see credit card companies getting displaced in that amount of time absent some really BIG adoption and even user-friendliness. Even in the past about 5 years between the 2013 BTC price bubble and the latest 2017 price bubble, both adoption and development around bitcoin has not even brought BTC adoption to more than 1% world wide.....

There could be several doublings of bitcoin adoption and creation of use cases with user friendliness, and maybe even then bitcoin would still only have less than 5% adoption, so there is going to be room for CC for a while, probably longer than 10 years - even though I agree with your overall premise that bitcoin is going to end up dominating and gaining market share with the passage of time, but it is likely going to take a decent amount of time to really displace the incumbents or causing them to focus on BTC exclusively, if that is what ends up happening.

Visa and Mastercard enable people to buy stuff on credit, I remember being 20 years old, applying for a credit card online and the next thing you know I get a credit card in the mail with a 10k limit a week later. It's not like you can start a crypto wallet and receive thousands or tens of thousands worth of credit.

I didn't say credit cards were going to be totally replaced in 2-5 years. I said they would be really hurt. For credit cards to fully die, I think more old people have to die first. We will absolutely be able to shop at a growing number of merchants with bitcoin and LN in 2-5 years.