Home ownership among the young is at a 30-year low. Millennials are opting to rent rather than buy in large numbers. This has all kinds of negative effects for communities, since young homebuyers are what forms the core of a community's next generation. It's bad for the country, because homes mean larger families in a time of declining birthrates. And it's bad for the millennials themselves, because for many generations a home has been a source of great wealth and pride.

There's been a lot of speculation about the reasons for this problem: is it rising home prices pushing ownership out of reach of anyone but the wealthy? Job instability that means you could be forced to pack up and move across the country at any time? Zero interest rates and high taxes making it difficult to save?

One Australian millionaire knows exactly what the cause is: too many millennials are eating avocados:

Quote:Quote:

Freely spending on avocados — the pricey, popular superfruit beloved by young people — may be one of the reasons why some young people can't afford a house, according to Australian millionaire and property mogul Tim Gurner.
"When I was trying to buy my first home, I wasn't buying smashed avocado for $19 and four coffees at $4 each," Gurner told the Australian news show 60 Minutes.
Only 32% of home owners were first-time buyers in 2016, the lowest point since 1987, according to a study by NerdWallet. A recent study by HSBC found that American millennials have a homeownership rate of 35%, and in Australia only about 28% of millennials own their homes. Cost is often a major factor in millennials' decisions to buy — the study found that a lot of young homeowners got a financial boost from their parents when making their purchase.

It goes without saying that this is obvious nonsense. All the millennials I know are in heavy debt, or working low-end jobs with no obvious promotion path. The exceptions are mostly fleeing the country. I personally could no more buy a house than I could buy a space shuttle.

One of the biggest problems I think Western culture has is the loss of civic responsibility among the wealthy. The word "Noblesse Oblige" has more or
less vanished from the national vocabulary. The old tycoons, for whatever flaws they may have had, donated their wealth to build libraries and to help the poor.

Our current elites seem to absolutely hate their own citizens. I have no idea why, or when this changed, but it's hard to come up with any other explanation. It seems to me that this is going to end poorly. I know when I read this my first thought was that one way to encourage home ownership among the poor would be for the government to throw Mr. Gurner in jail, confiscate his properties and just hand them out to the poor. I'm well-read enough to know exactly why this is a terrible idea, and it's still tempting.

I can't even imagine what the guys who are 80k in student loan debt are thinking.

Playing Occulus Rift and and watching porn are more fulfilling than the stress of a costly mortgage & shabby wife that complains with an ever present threat of divorce costs.

Until that equation changes what is the point for most guys? I haven't met too many girls that want to become homemakers.

Meaning where is the motivation coming from for guys to make great $? If you tell a guy go to RVF, build a location indepedent business that makes $200k a year on autopilot and move away... I mean seriously how many guys are going to climb that mountain no matter how much evidence there is to go that way?

To think of it I don't think I have ever heard a girl say on a date that she dreams about having a nice home with kids, not once. In fact it is like a game to keep that as far away in conversation as possible. God forbid if the guy brought up having a nice house with kids on a date, then he is desperate. It's twisted.

Being cool is fucking gay nowadays.

It's simple really. There are very very few "jobs" that lead to affluence in the West.

More than ever: If you're not working for yourself then you're working to make someone else wealthy.

Quote: (05-15-2017 07:56 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

I know when I read this my first thought was that one way to encourage home ownership among the poor would be for the government to throw Mr. Gurner in jail, confiscate his properties and just hand them out to the poor. I'm well-read enough to know exactly why this is a terrible idea, and it's still tempting.

Actually Mr Gurner has a point. Millenials don't have a clue as to what delayed gratification means. They want all of the rewards without taking any of the risks or making any sacrifices required.

Not everyone gets to be rich and famous.



But then not evryone deserves to be

Yeah, cause millenials are DEFINITELY the ones who burned through more resources in two generations than all of previous human history combined.

Quote: (05-15-2017 07:56 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

Our current elites seem to absolutely hate their own citizens. I have no idea why, or when this changed, but it's hard to come up with any other explanation. It seems to me that this is going to end poorly. I know when I read this my first thought was that one way to encourage home ownership among the poor would be for the government to throw Mr. Gurner in jail, confiscate his properties and just hand them out to the poor. I'm well-read enough to know exactly why this is a terrible idea, and it's still tempting.

Well, the American elites 100 years ago or so were:

1) mostly WASPs
2) Industrialists
3) Builders and innovators

The situation has changed. The current elite is mostly Jewish and kleptocratic - Wall St. parasites and hedge fund managers and such. And they really don't like white, working class people.

The problem is at least threefold.

(1) Modern people, not just Millennial, but everyone now expects to have a lot more than people did 30 years ago. It's not just the fridge, the tube TV, a functional car, the washing machine and the dryer. It's the smartphone with data-plan, the high speed Internet connection, a shiny, "hip" car and trips out to be "foodies." The cost of being a "normal person" is so much higher than it was 1 or 2 generations ago. Worker wages are also down, which adds fuel to the fire. Individual purchasing power is very low these days.

(2) Older folks are dependent on getting a good return on their investments so that they can retire. A lot of these investments are in real estate.

(3) No one starts their own business anymore, so everyone has to go to a big city where there are "jobs," because a 4 year degree doesn't even teach you how to effectively start, manage and profit from a no frills house painting service so that you never have to be beholding to a boss if you don't want to be. People are educated to be a cog and therefore have no choice but to go where the jobs are and pay the related housing expenses for those limited areas.

Quote: (05-15-2017 08:29 PM)YoungBlade Wrote:  

Yeah, cause millenials are DEFINITELY the ones who burned through more resources in two generations than all of previous human history combined.

Like the line in Shawshank Redemption: "Get busy living, or get busy dying". They can either piss and moan about what they weren't given or take advantage of what they were like every generation before. Personally I believe there's never been a better, safer, rich-in-opportunity time to live in human history than right now.

Im surprised this cunt isn't a baby boomer, because this is the sort of lame "advice" they routinely give from inside their bubble.

Work hard, do overtime.
Save hard
Go without
Start at the bottom of the property ladder and work your way up.

They say these things as if it's some sort of arcane, sage advice, but they don't seem to comprehend that the world has changed since their day, and doing what they did is no longer a complete solution, in large part due to their own actions. Lets compare their youths with ours:

1970 - Leave school and walk into a job with good enough salary to buy a (cheap) home and support wife and kids.
vs
2017 - Leave school, then go to uni (accruing $20,000+ debt in the process) before competing with cheap overseas labour for an entry level position that hardly pays the rent on a 2 bedroom crap shack. If you are lucky enough to get a salaried position, chances are you wont be paid overtime, but might be expected to work it anyway.

But this guy is a "property mogul" and in Australia at least, this is a sure sign of someone out of touch. The old advice holds true - start at the bottom. But what they don't tell you is that "the bottom" was bought out by baby boomers, who chucked a coat of paint on it and sold it for double the price. The bottom end has been massively inflated, and the proceeds went straight into the baby boomers pockets. 10 years or so ago my city went through a property boom, and I know people who bought apartments (on a mortgage, fuck all money down) then sold them at $100K profit, before construction had even finished. Great if you were advanced enough in your life to be in a position to take advantage (ie a baby boomer) tough shit if you weren't.

Lower end properties in the boomers day were 3 bedroom homes or duplexes, maybe 10 or 20km from the CBD. Now it's a cheaply built 2 bedroom home on a tiny block, 50+km from the CBD. Of course baby boomers don't care about that - they focus on having a "big screen TV" in the house, as a sign that kids these days just want all their newfangled gadgets and they want it now.

Man...I could go on all day about this, but what's the point? I'm just muddling along, trying to pay off my low-end house in under 20 years without being replaced by Indians and having my home divorce raped away from me. This is the world this noble generation built. Kids these days eh - apparently we should be grateful.

This is a bit of a tangent, but the avocado thing is the absolute worst kind of misleading clickbait nonsense. He was using avocados as an example to convey that millenials spend lots of money on unnecessary luxuries, not arguing that avocados themselves contribute meaningfully to millenials' financial woes.

It may seem like nitpicking, but this type of misrepresentation is precisely how a harmless social meetup turns into a gathering of diabolical "pro-rape advocates," so we should call it out when we see it.

Im not saying "start at the bottom and work your way up". Quite the opposite.

No question the game has changed and the rules are different. Playing the new game by the old rules is certainly not prudent

The name of the game now is equity. If you're not building it you're never going to get ahead.

Quote: (05-15-2017 09:36 PM)PapayaTapper Wrote:  

Im not saying "start at the bottom and work your way up". Quite the opposite.

No question the game has changed and the rules are different. Playing the new game by the old rules is certainly not prudent

The name of the game now is equity. If you're not building it you're never going to get ahead.

You've said this before and I wasn't quite sure what you meant. Stocks? Are you referring to just recurring income streams in general?

Quote: (05-15-2017 08:40 PM)Suits Wrote:  

The problem is at least threefold.

(1) Modern people, not just Millennial, but everyone now expects to have a lot more than people did 30 years ago. It's not just the fridge, the tube TV, a functional car, the washing machine and the dryer. It's the smartphone with data-plan, the high speed Internet connection, a shiny, "hip" car and trips out to be "foodies." The cost of being a "normal person" is so much higher than it was 1 or 2 generations ago. Worker wages are also down, which adds fuel to the fire. Individual purchasing power is very low these days.

(2) Older folks are dependent on getting a good return on their investments so that they can retire. A lot of these investments are in real estate.

(3) No one starts their own business anymore, so everyone has to go to a big city where there are "jobs," because a 4 year degree doesn't even teach you how to effectively start, manage and profit from a no frills house painting service so that you never have to be beholding to a boss if you don't want to be. People are educated to be a cog and therefore have no choice but to go where the jobs are and pay the related housing expenses for those limited areas.

Pretty much this.

Gurner's comments have to be taken in the Australian context in particular, because that's where he made his money and the property market in the most popular areas is just completely insane. The Sydney and Melbourne property markets in particular have just passed the point of rationality, but everyone keeps buying into the fucking things because property is basically the only moneymaking investment Australia has, and because everyone has the narcissistic desire to be where the action is, in the city.

In passing, the most vomitworthy shows on Australian TV, and I am including everything from Real Plastic Housewives of Sydney right through to Q&A on the ABC, are the property redevelopment shows/competitions. The Block in particular: the series follows a bunch of morons as they redevelop a shithole in some moderately well-to-do suburb in Sydney, Melbourne, or Brisbane, and concludes with a televised auction of the properties. The team that gets the highest price for their apartment wins.

It is just sickening as you watch these idiots grinning like sharks as the prices go higher and higher and higher. That's someone else's life that's being bid away. That's someone's hours with their kids that are being bid away, and it's being treated like it's some sort of good thing, like it's a lottery where everyone with a dog in the fight wins.

Back on topic, I'm not saying Gurner is perfectly in perspective. He had his start only because he had thirty grand given to him by his grandfather and had the immense balls to take over a lease on a suburban gym at the age of 19, renovating it in 4 weeks and getting it rolling again. A lot of millionaires don't admit or heavily downplay the immense luck that factors into their immense wealth: four out of five small businesses fail in the first five years, he sold the gym one year later to some other poor sucker and went into property development.

But at the same time he says pretty plainly that it's the madness for immediate high standards of houses that is pumping property prices through the roof. (An ironic observation, because he actually sells high-end luxury apartments for a living.) That much I can appreciate: even in 1970s Australia, a working-class couple were able to buy a house in a good-ish area outright without a mortgage only if you saved hard and busted your arse in some mining shithole for a couple of years or so. Bank credit was a lot harder to come by, too, and the standard was a 3x1, not a 4x2, even if it came on a larger block of land. On the other hand, at least the houses were mostly new: millennials mostly can't afford to build, they have to buy the Boomers' shitboxes.

I don't think it's a case of Millennials wanting more than they can afford. I think a lot of Millennials would gladly move into a cheaper place without granite countertops, etc. if it was available, but they simply don't seem to be. It's the same way with college: Millennials would probably gladly take tuition at a place that offered a good education for 5k a year, but didn't have countless fancy gyms, "student life advisors" and other such frivolities. But it's simply not available. If you're a college kid your options are basically go to the community college for a degree that won't help you get a good job, or go hugely into debt. The middle road just isn't there anymore.

Reply to Paracelsus :
Then there's the other problem whereby you get to expend ridiculous amounts in Australian cities (esp. for new units / apartments) that are so hastily slapped together with such low quality materials & with such poor craftsmanship, that you don't even get your monies worth.

Its just a massive clusterfuck right now. The biggest problems for Millenials is the preponderance of student loan debt and the cost of housing in the larger metropolitan areas. The student loan fiasco is definitely a creation of the elites. It's beyond comprehension to me how readily 100K loans are given out to 18yr old kids to study complete bs. To me this is utterly criminal especially given how these loans aren't even dischargable in bankruptcy. Yet if that kid went to the bank to get a business loan for 30K, he'd be given a police escort out of the bank. So now, a kid who has 50-60K in student loans and then has to come up with a 50-60K downpayment for a house that you then have to pay a huge mortgage and exhorbitant property taxes for. Can't say I blame Millenials for not wanting to sign up for that, especially with the horrible job market and depressed wages of the last 10 years. Hell I'm an old man and I don't even want to deal with property ownership ever again. I'm quite happy to be renting.

Another huge problem for Millenials is that many of their parents are clueless idiots who have given no advice or bad advice to them. So many Millenials come from broken homes and have no family they can really count on to guide them, no wise father to help them. This in fact may be the biggest handicap that Millenials have and it is disgraceful how my generation failed these children (thankfully I'm an exception to that).

However, I would also say that Millenials aren't blameless either. A lot of them are quite spoiled and have high expectations for their lifestyles. A lot of people in general have no ability to practice delayed gratification either, they want it all now. Going to college can still be worth it, provided you study things that you can go out into the world and get paid for, work hard in high school to grab scholarships that so many colleges do offer and forget the stupidly expensive private schools (this is something I wish was preached a lot more because it can have a huge impact financially to have good grades opening up scholarships to lower debt burdens) . Also, so many Millenials just have to live in NY or LA or some other high priced, high tax shithole metropolitan area instead of more affordable places like Atlanta, Phoenix or Dallas. These other places have plenty of jobs and often times better people too.

The elites have definitely made it harder for regular people to get ahead and this is no doubt by design as they want to remain where they are without any competition or threat. Through taxation and regulation along with propagandizing and debasing the culture, the elites really have separated themselves from everyone else. That said, I still think that Millenials can get ahead but they have to be creative and think outside of the box and not do what the rest of their peers are doing.

Quote: (05-15-2017 10:11 PM)doc holliday Wrote:  

However, I would also say that Millenials aren't blameless either. A lot of them are quite spoiled and have high expectations for their lifestyles. A lot of people in general have no ability to practice delayed gratification either, they want it all now. Going to college can still be worth it, provided you study things that you can go out into the world get paid for, work hard in high school to grab scholarships that so many colleges do offer and forget the stupidly expensive private schools (this is something I wish was preached a lot more because it can have a huge impact financially to have good grades opening up scholarships to lower debt burdens) . Also, so many Millenials just have to live in NY or LA or some other high priced, high tax shithole metropolitan area instead of more affordable places like Atlanta, Phoenix or Dallas. These other places have plenty of jobs and often times better people too.

I keep hearing about these spoiled Millennials (A word which I am only today learning has two "n"s in it, by the way) but I don't know that I've ever actually met one. Maybe it's a generation thing.
As for whether these places are affordable, I just typed "Atlanta Home Prices" into Google News and here were the top 3 stories that came up...

Home Buying? Here's why you'll pay more in metro Atlanta.

As Atlanta Home Prices Rise, Can Buyers Actually Afford Them?

Atlanta Home Prices Up 10.6% In A Year. Is there a bubble?

The problem is far, far more widespread than just LA and NY, which the vast majority of millennials avoid.

The experiences of Millenial homebuyers in the Anglosphere countries depends highly on where they are buying, prices are crazy in places like Sydney, Melbourne, Vancouver, Toronto, New York and San Francisco but there are still plenty of places in all of those countries where a young person, especially a double income couple can afford a decent home. I was at a small house party with three of my oil sands buddies on the weekend, they all moved to Edmonton in 2012 when I was hyping it up and they all got into my trade and have been steady since. We are all in our late 20s/early 30s and all make around $80-100 and all of us are now home owners, the latest guy just bought a house last month. Fortunately we live in a city where housing prices are still reasonable, about $250-350,000 for a nice two bedroom condo like mine or $300-450,000 for a modest house. Personally I'd rather live in a second tier city and have extra money for travel, investments and possibly entertain the idea of having a family then be house broke in a cool city slaving away to pay off a mortgage that I can't afford.

It does suck pretty bad that there's so many people in the above mentioned cities that literally can't afford to live in the neighborhoods that they grew up in because their governments encourage rich immigrants to park their money in the safe investments of property in a stable country, like we see happening with the Chinese in Vancouver.

Cashed up Chinese investors also had a field day in Australia over the previous few years.

Expect for one small potential problem.
I hear the big banks are realizing to their detriment that these cashed up foreign investors may not be as cashed up as they claimed.

Quote: (05-15-2017 09:50 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

Quote: (05-15-2017 09:36 PM)PapayaTapper Wrote:  

Im not saying "start at the bottom and work your way up". Quite the opposite.

No question the game has changed and the rules are different. Playing the new game by the old rules is certainly not prudent

The name of the game now is equity. If you're not building it you're never going to get ahead.

You've said this before and I wasn't quite sure what you meant. Stocks? Are you referring to just recurring income streams in general?

Equity in a business

Can whatever youre doing as a job be done independently? As a consultancy
perhaps?

Example: A good friend of mine was working for a large market research co. This company has offices in LA, NY, London, etc. He ran one of the consumer product divisions for years. Made really good money but was being run ragged by the company, traveling. Every year they raised his divisional sales quota and every year they ratcheted back his bonus. And every year Id ask "Why dont you just start your own shop?" His answer was always basically "Im not sure if I can"

3 years ago after he worked there for 8 years the company was acquired for several hundred million $ and all he got was a pink slip...while the equity stakeholders got rich(er).

Fast forward to today and he's running his own shop and last year did about $8 million in sales and growing. He ended up taking several of the client accounts that he had relationships with and several key employees as well.

He got over his fear becasue he had no choice, He's basically doing the same work but now he's the one building equity in a company that he can likely sell down the road. He's also happier and more motivated because his fate is in his own hands. There's not someone else deciding how much money he makes

Quote: (05-15-2017 10:26 PM)CynicalContrarian Wrote:  

Cashed up Chinese investors also had a field day in Australia over the previous few years.

Expect for one small potential problem.
I hear the big banks are realizing to their detriment that these cashed up foreign investors may not be as cashed up as they claimed.

Comes down to this: the Chinese government is putting heavier capital controls in place because they know their economy is a Ponzi scheme at heart. They want to make sure as many assets as possible are within Chinese jurisdiction for taxation when the collapse in their bond market comes. As a result, the economic refugees as a group in Sydney were able to come up with deposits, but they couldn't get the rest of their money out, resulting in a big fall in apartment sales in particular.

Quote: (05-15-2017 10:17 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

Quote: (05-15-2017 10:11 PM)doc holliday Wrote:  

However, I would also say that Millenials aren't blameless either. A lot of them are quite spoiled and have high expectations for their lifestyles. A lot of people in general have no ability to practice delayed gratification either, they want it all now. Going to college can still be worth it, provided you study things that you can go out into the world get paid for, work hard in high school to grab scholarships that so many colleges do offer and forget the stupidly expensive private schools (this is something I wish was preached a lot more because it can have a huge impact financially to have good grades opening up scholarships to lower debt burdens) . Also, so many Millenials just have to live in NY or LA or some other high priced, high tax shithole metropolitan area instead of more affordable places like Atlanta, Phoenix or Dallas. These other places have plenty of jobs and often times better people too.

I keep hearing about these spoiled Millennials (A word which I am only today learning has two "n"s in it, by the way) but I don't know that I've ever actually met one. Maybe it's a generation thing.
As for whether these places are affordable, I just typed "Atlanta Home Prices" into Google News and here were the top 3 stories that came up...

Home Buying? Here's why you'll pay more in metro Atlanta.

As Atlanta Home Prices Rise, Can Buyers Actually Afford Them?

Atlanta Home Prices Up 10.6% In A Year. Is there a bubble?

The problem is far, far more widespread than just LA and NY, which the vast majority of millennials avoid.

I just used Atlanta as an example but you're right, the problem is widespread. But I still think there are places in the US that are affordable but you have to be willing to think outside of the box. Smaller cities like Columbus OH, Indianapolis, Boise ID may be better examples of affordable places with big city amenities. I do for the record think that my generation failed Millennials big time as I said above so I don't want to make it sound like I don't understand the difficulties that young men especially face these days. I talk to my 19yr old son and my 22yr old daughter all the time about these things. I also pay for my kids college and my daughter will be graduating in June with zero student loan debt and that is my goal for my son too. Student loan debt is pure evil in my books. And yes, I keep spelling Millennials with one n only.

Quote: (05-15-2017 10:35 PM)doc holliday Wrote:  

I just used Atlanta as an example but you're right, the problem is widespread. But I still think there are places in the US that are affordable but you have to be willing to think outside of the box. Smaller cities like Columbus OH, Indianapolis, Boise ID may be better examples of affordable places with big city amenities.

Not as much as you might think:
Boise is hitting record highs for home prices.

In Columbus, rising rents are making neighborhoods unaffordable.

And Indy is hitting record highs as well.