If lamestream America is out of touch with our nation's rank and file, then the cognitive dissonance will show up in prediction market forecasts and actual results.

Based on this, I decided to put my money where my mouth is, and began betting on Trump winning NH and also the nomination. All I need for a reasonable profit is for his odds to improve, which they now seem to have done.

Let's use this thread to share betting strategies for the coming election.

Too little, too late. We were placing bets back in July when Trump was -800 for the primary. Also he was -1200 for the general. Betting on Trump now when he's in the lead isn't a hustle.

Quote: (02-07-2016 03:11 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

Too little, too late. We were placing bets back in July when Trump was -800 for the primary. Also he was -1200 for the general. Betting on Trump now when he's in the lead isn't a hustle.

lol... silly me for not being active for almost a year.

Your signature is a very apt description of this thread.

There's still money to be made, though. I'm making 66% percent return on Trump winning NH, which is a sure thing. Not shabby for a week's investment.

I'm far from sure he's gonna get the nomination though. I expect Cruz's odds to improve significantly the coming weeks.

I bet 1k on him last month at +550 on a site called bet365. Right now he's at +700 so now is the time to bet.

Timeline:
November +800
December +650
January +550
Mid Jan +333
a little later +550
Now +700

Also Samseau I could be wrong but I think you have your -/+ mixed up. + implies an underdog and - implies preferred. Right now Clinton is at -125

Quote: (02-07-2016 07:58 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  

I bet 1k on him last month at +550 on a site called bet365. Right now he's at +700 so now is the time to bet.

Timeline:
November +800
December +650
January +550
Mid Jan +333
a little later +550
Now +700

Also Samseau I could be wrong but I think you have your -/+ mixed up. + implies an underdog and - implies preferred. Right now Clinton is at -125

Yeah, I got the +/- mixed up, but where are you getting these odds? I just went to bet365, and I see 1/3 odds on Trump. If I wager 100 on Trump I can win 133.... that's not bad but not amazing. To be totally honest I'm not sure if it's worth the risk of being scammed, which is a possibility with all of these Euro sites. If they don't pay me out, what recourse do I have since this sort of gambling is illegal in the USA?

   

I got bet365 vouched for by a close friend who bets daily (as a profession).

On bet 365 on the right above bet slip it says Odds. Yours is set to Fractional. Change it to American and you should see the +/- system.

Just to make things clear guys, if the odds are +700 that Trump wins the US Presidential elections and he does win in Nov. That means for every $100 you bet, you will make a return of $700, so $800 total. I bet 1k roughly at +550 in Jan so if he wins in Nov then I'll win $5500 and make back my original 1k.

Right now I'm going to log into my account and see if I can pull my 1k out, take a small loss but put it back in at the +700 odds.

The +700 will change depending on what happens in NH and SC so things do change very quickly as the timeline above has shown. Before the GOP debate/Trump for veterans event, odds were +333, after the debate/TFV it became +550 and after the Iowa Caucus it went to +700.

Quote: (02-07-2016 09:52 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  

I got bet365 vouched for by a close friend who bets daily (as a profession).

On bet 365 on the right above bet slip it says Odds. Yours is set to Fractional. Change it to American and you should see the +/- system.

Just to make things clear guys, if the odds are +700 that Trump wins the US Presidential elections and he does win in Nov. That means for every $100 you bet, you will make a return of $700, so $800 total. I bet 1k roughly at +550 in Jan so if he wins in Nov then I'll win $5500 and make back my original 1k.

Right now I'm going to log into my account and see if I can pull my 1k out, take a small loss but put it back in at the +700 odds.

The +700 will change depending on what happens in NH and SC so things do change very quickly as the timeline above has shown. Before the GOP debate/Trump for veterans event, odds were +333, after the debate/TFV it became +550 and after the Iowa Caucus it went to +700.

Well, you're talking about the general election. Those are much tighter odds than the primary. I was playing -800 bets on the PRIMARY. Easy money as far as I'm concerned. The general is a much bigger risk. The stakes are way higher, and the democrats can pull some dirty shit to steal the election. Regardless betting huge on Trump for the general may not be such a bad idea, because if Hillary takes the election we're all gonna get royally fucked anyways so may as well go big on Trump.

I just tried to create an account on bet365. I cannot list the United States as a country of residence? How do Americans bet on this site?

Betfair has Trump at 13:1. Worth throwing a few dollars on

Bovada is open to US citizens and I have received checks from them before. The odds there aren't as good as other sites currently with Trump at +160 for the primaries and +500 for the general, but Im still thinking about throwing down some money on the primaries there anyway.

Quote: (02-07-2016 10:26 PM)big poppa Wrote:  

Betfair has Trump at 13:1. Worth throwing a few dollars on

Americans can't bet on that now can they?

Notice the sites with the best odds for making money on Trump are the ones Americans cannot bet on.

The ones where Americans can make bets, the odds are much lower because of all the Americans who are piling up on the other side of the bet against the Euronoobs.

Fractional or US odds are kinda goofy and unintuitive, demical odds all the way

With decimal you can clearly instantly see by how much your stake will be multiplied. Odds of 2.0 means you'll double your stake, anything under 2.0 and you still win but it'll be less than your stake, anything above 2.0 and you're starting to make some seriously nice returns on your investment

Also if you're a US citizen, I strongly recommend that you use Predictit. It gives you the delicious and great opportunity on simply arbitrage betting on the changing sentiment of how the people perceive the candidates, not just on the outcome itself. Easy money if you can predict how the mood of the cucks will shift and also to hedge your bets on both outcomes

I've never done any betting at all before and I'm betting mainly for fun now, so I'm perfectly happy to take my 9:1 odds. Will pay for a very nice vacation.

   

Also threw in $6 for Sanders just out of morbid curiosity

5.1 that Trump wins the nomination?

Betfair is only doing 3.4. The bet on Trump winning NH looks like a nice investment.

Next good bet would be Cruz's overall chances for winning the nomination going up after SC. He's currently at 8.2 on Betfair.

Jefe, that's just the average between a 10:1 bet from a few months ago and a 3:1 bet from this evening.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-p...016/winner

Check your best odds here. Obviously not all betting platforms are featured on that site. Trump had odds of 12.8 right after Iowa, now the panicked cucks calmed themselves down a bit and Trump is falling again (as in, people give him a higher chance of winning)

to be fully honest, I'm almost in tears that I put off betting on Trump in September until so late. In September he had odds of like 20.0-30.0ish. That would've been a 100 stake and 3000 winnings

Since I live in europe, what are some good european betting sites?

Quote: (02-09-2016 11:23 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

Since I live in europe, what are some good european betting sites?

Check my post above yours

Check your odds on:

• Betbrain.com
• Oddschecker.com
  

Reliable bookmakers (if you come across a good offer, always check here first):
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/sportsbooks/

Pinnacle is the best one out there, Bet365 pretty much excellent if you don't do it professionally, Betfair's sport exchange can offer better odds, Betdaq is another reliable exchange. There are a few more I can recommend. Winners are generally not welcome though, so if you have a few successful bets with higher stakes you might encounter betting limits (e.g. your stake is limited). You will always get your money though, unless you provided fake information or bet illegally or used some fishy bookie but it goes without saying you shouldn't be doing that in the first place.

I gladly answer any questions.

Damn, wish I was outside of the US right now so I could get the odds some of you guys are talking about. As it is most sites don't allow deposits from US banks or credit cards.

That being said, I put a few hundred on Trump to win the general election at the +500 on Bovada. I still think that is a good bet overall, and I'm pretty happy with it.

After New Hampshire today the odds are likely going to drop, at least temporarily. Not long before Trump is no longer the underdog IMO.

Marty, what about Matchbook (I used that)? They seem nice and reputable to me. I used them primarily because their UI was very user-friendly.

Quote: (02-09-2016 05:06 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

Marty, what about Matchbook (I used that)? They seem nice and reputable to me. I used them primarily because their UI was very user-friendly.

Matchbook is another exchange (meaning you don't just take the bookie's odds but you can actually "be" the bookie and offer odds that others can take and vice versa. It's a P2P platform, the provider of the exchange only takes a cut in form of commission, usually 2-5% of the winnings). I don't have personal experience with them but they seem solid. The only problem is liquidity (meaning either you don't get the best odds, e.g. there's a huge gap between the back and lay side - someone offers 2.0 for Trump but that's way too low and someone wants to buy at 20.0 which is way too high and nothing in-between; or you can get sometimes matched at a good price but only for a small amount). This is less of a problem for bigger events. Also they have a slightly different commission structure but this doesn't come into play unless you're a pro.

Betfair is the biggest exchange but they are spineless greedy motherfuckers. They started out as pretty much the perfect exchange but have become extremely greedy and introduced a disgusting premium charge a few years ago which targets everyone who is a long term winner. If you're a pro, there's not much you can do to avoid this, as the other exchanges lack the liqudity of Betfair. But if you just want to place a few bets now and then, I'd suggest avoiding them, the pro's fucking hate their guts. So Eel, my suggestion would rather be Betdaq, their interface is similar to Matchbook's and there's a wider array of things to bet on. Liquidity is usually somewhere between BF and MB. I haven't used them for a while though, they are not available in my country.

It's useful to check the odds before placing the bet and having accounts at different bookies. It does make a huge difference. Especially if you use a local bookmaker, those are usually the worst.

Not sure what's happening, but either a lot of EU betting sites halted their betting markets during this NH primary election or they pulled out of political bets completely