Quote: (12-29-2018 03:21 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:
Alex Jones is great fun to listen to, but he's another guy who's in the category of predicting 50 of the last 2 recessions.
Quote: (12-29-2018 03:21 PM)BaatumMania Wrote:
I don't think this one could be worse than 2009. 2009 had the whole mortgages being given out to potato people. And then baby boomers made it much worse by potato dumping all their retirement funds thinking shit was about to hit the fan. I don't think there's as much dumping this time around.
Quote: (12-29-2018 05:48 PM)The Father Wrote:
Quote: (12-29-2018 05:45 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:
I guess it all depends on whether the potato people will still trust the dollar as a safe haven?
Potato people? Wus that? You mean, like the Irish?
![[Image: icon_question.gif]](https://rooshvforum.network/images/smilies/new/icon_question.gif){kind=icon}
Quote: (12-29-2018 05:23 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:
I`m not taking financial advise from Alex Jones either, but I still think that Schiff is right about the fundamentals. Unfortunately also about the political consequences, which will mean a Socialist/Marxist candidate wins in 2020.
Quote: (12-29-2018 05:53 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:
Quote: (12-29-2018 05:23 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:
I`m not taking financial advise from Alex Jones either, but I still think that Schiff is right about the fundamentals. Unfortunately also about the political consequences, which will mean a Socialist/Marxist candidate wins in 2020.
How much money have you made off of Schiff's calls in the past? Do you know anybody who made a lot of money following his calls?
Quote: (12-29-2018 05:53 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:
Quote: (12-29-2018 05:23 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:
I`m not taking financial advise from Alex Jones either, but I still think that Schiff is right about the fundamentals. Unfortunately also about the political consequences, which will mean a Socialist/Marxist candidate wins in 2020.
How much money have you made off of Schiff's calls in the past? Do you know anybody who made a lot of money following his calls?
Quote: (01-02-2019 04:46 AM)Walt_Heisenberg Wrote:
Also note that cash is finally worth something with the rising interest rates after years of earning nothing. You literally had no choice but to invest in the stock market or risk losing purchasing power to inflation. Now, you can park your cash in a money market account earning a risk free 2.5% or look for 3-5 year CDs earning 3% or more. Why take any risks in this overpriced market?
Market timing is a fool’s game, IMO, so I’m not saying wait for a bottom to buy back in because who knows when that is. I’m perfectly comfortable earning a measly 3% this year. There’s nothing wrong with some risk management and capital preservation after a 10 year bull market.
Quote: (01-01-2019 12:47 PM)robreke Wrote:
Happy new years market update:
I have a few observations after doing my quarter end market analysis for what it's worth-
I never trust the first rally off the lows, which is what we're experiencing. The up days have been on low volume, which is a sign of weakness, The down (distribution) days preceding this bounce were on much higher volume. A telling sign that I think means we may get a substantial bounce here, but lower lows are very possible.
We’re up 7 percent off lows with this bounce. This correction we're undergoing is, I believe a cyclical bear market within a secular (long term) bull market. More on that below.
The average "first rally bounce" that occurs in a cyclical bear within a secular bull is +13% since 1920s.
The problem with these rallies is that they occur around a lot of volatility, which makes properly buying individual stocks very difficult.
So, it makes stocks risky.
It’s important to recognize if it’s a cyclical correction (which I said I believe it is) or if it’s associated with a recession and therefore a secular (bigger longer term) bear market.
The signs of an impending recession that I watch are not showing themselves at this point. There are a few concerns with interest rate and SOME inversion of the yield curve, but many of the other indicators that often flash before a recession are not showing themselves. These reasons and a few others are why I, again, think we're in a cyclical (shorter term) bear market.
I converted the portfolios I manage for my clients (ETFs and managed money) to 50% cash on October 17 before the watershed decline started. All individual stock trading accounts have been in cash starting a few days before that, with the exception of some short term stock trades I made about 2 weeks ago. I'm planning on reinvesting once I see the "long term buy signal" I follow go back to a buy (back to fully invested in ETFs, mutual funds). Individual stocks will only be bought after they have properly set up and when the market signal is back to a buy.
At this point, I think we could see a snap back rally, another, deeper downside for a bit and then , finally, the long term bull market will resume. I think that potentially there could be much more upside in the stock market, perhaps for years. I base this on the fact that, if you look at cyclical bear markets within secular bulls, after these short term bear markets played themselves out, the market advanced well past these corrections and went on for years or decades.
Case in point - 1987 was a cyclical correction (very dramatic) within a secular bull market ( 1982-2000) After 1987, the markets went up many many times from there for another 13 years. 2000 - 2010 was the "lost decade" where it was all sideways action punctuated by two bear markets.
We're now about 9 years out of that mega-consolidation (sideways action ) of 2000-2010. In the context of what markets have done after long term (decade or longer) sideways action, 9 years is not excessive. For example, the 1970s were a lost decade that, juxtaposed with a chart of the early 2000s, looks very similar. What happened after the lost decade of the '70's? A bull market that lasted 20 years (with, as I mentioned some cyclical bear markets within it)
The current sentiment composite shows very negative sentiment which is a good contrarian indicator.
I think we could be setting up for a buying opportunity, with this pullback but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet.
Some of the red flags or at least things to watch is the fact that the Fed us raising into a weakening environment which is a little different than the past when they usually raise into an inflationary environment.
There are a few catalysts which could spark a new rally to get us out of this correction. For example the tariff situation is eventually going to blow over with China. This maybe the catalyst to spark the next rally. Or, perhaps a fed policy change.
Quote: (12-26-2018 09:59 AM)Deepdiver Wrote:
Is the once great GE Going to be flushed down the toilet - NO, is it going to be sold to China for pennies HELL NO - WHY you Ask? Because GE is approx #39 on the Federal Top 100 Prime DoD Contractors list...
New CEO Culp used TSP Toyota Supply Program basically the new ISO/Deming Stats Quality Control/JIT to create 400% returns for Danaher Stakeholders and he is doing same now to Turn Around GE...
One of the tried and true two to 10 bagger+ strategies is to invest in previously great companies now on hard times but ripe for a turnaround. GE was $33.00 in July 2016 - trading today 26Dec2018 at 6.81 and 52 week low was several days ago at 6.66.
The VPVR POC on the 3 year daily chart from the above swing high to current swing low is in fact 30.34 and the 12 month POC is 13.81, therefore, the $15.00 calls had quite a bit of open interest outstanding holds of 228,158 on this option.
Therefore these 12 month in the future GE $15 Call options have a low time premium for the potential returns...
10 Call Options allows you to control 1,000 GE shares for only $155.00 and when it rebounds with some improving news over the next 4 quarters the returns on these options could be in the 5X to 10X range.
DateOrderTypeOrder typeQuantitySymbolPrice typeTermPricePrice
12/26/18630Option
Buy Open
10
GE Jan 17 '20 $15 Call
MktDayMkt
0.15
Total price $159.95 including commission on 10 GE Call Options
Quote: (01-03-2019 05:14 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:
You said:
"I'm planning on reinvesting once I see the "long term buy signal" I follow go back to a buy (back to fully invested in ETFs, mutual funds). Individual stocks will only be bought after they have properly set up and when the market signal is back to a buy."
Curious if you could explain/share your Long term Buy Signal?
Quote: (12-29-2018 01:53 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:
Thank you for posting about that hack Armstrong. His advice and predictions are functionally useless.
There's a thread on bitcointalk about the very man. A few people have been actually tracking his calls and have called them out as flat wrong.
Notice how he hasn't posted crap on his private blog during the most volatile time of the year? The guy is an above average trader but that's it. He's no better than dice at predicting price movements.
Edit: the last twenty pages have some of the most critical comments. The guy's a blubbering idiot conning people into think he's some Nostradamus.
Quote: (01-03-2019 10:47 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:
Quote: (12-29-2018 01:53 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:
Thank you for posting about that hack Armstrong. His advice and predictions are functionally useless.
There's a thread on bitcointalk about the very man. A few people have been actually tracking his calls and have called them out as flat wrong.
Notice how he hasn't posted crap on his private blog during the most volatile time of the year? The guy is an above average trader but that's it. He's no better than dice at predicting price movements.
Edit: the last twenty pages have some of the most critical comments. The guy's a blubbering idiot conning people into think he's some Nostradamus.
Armstrong has a different and interesting take than many others. I would not dismiss him (nor have you or Mr. Father). Look back on any post I made, or others that are interested in what he has to say, nowhere do we say that he is some sort of Nostradamus; we just gave his predictions. Father boy posts one thing and your confirmation bias is hooked. I expect more, Beast.
Quote:Quote:
Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Index in dollars and Euro, While we have had this sell-off and everyone was touting interest rates & trade, it was really about the upcoming elections where the polls project the House will go back to the Democrats. This will only ensure further economic stagnation for the Democrats will do everything in their power to undermine Trump just so they can win back the Presidency in 2020. This enbittered style of politics is just divisive and ensures that the economy will only get worse.
Nonetheless, the market bounced with the Directional Change as it should have. However, the capital flows have swung again. While they turned negative at the top fearing the US elections, the loss of Merkel's CDU and her stepping down as party leader is the prelude to Merkel going out the door. We could even see this develop as soon as December.
Now look at the Dow in Euro compared to dollars. When the dollar perspective looks like a crash, the Euro perspective should a minor correction and support. The question is not how crazy things get in the USA, but how out of the mind things become in Europe in the aftermath of Merkel. Just look at the two charts with a simple uptrend line from the same point, What a difference a currency makes.
Quote:Quote:
Ex. In 2013 he predicted the DOW would double by 2015. At the time of the prediction the DOW was approximately 14,000 - today (April 2016), it is at/near its high of 17,737.00. In 2014 he stated that $100+ crude oil was here to stay. Crude is nohere near that. So both of these are way off base.
Forecaster Martin Armstrong calling for start to a Sovereign debt crisis 2015.75 - he means the 3rd quarter of 2015 but it did not and has not transpired... yet. Notice how he calls this peak government now.
August 25, 2011 - Martin Armstrong: Gold to Correct for 1-3 Quarters Before Resuming Uptrend - Gold was $1740 on that date, did correct lower - but never resumed, eclipsed or equaled that high 1-3 quarters after - nor has it 4.5 years later.
June 1, 2012 - Martin Armstrong: Are Commodities Preparing for a MAJOR RALLY? Armstrong is still looking for gold to explode to the upside into 2015 due to the Sovereign Debt Crisis - in this case the exact opposite happened - Commodities essentially collapsed for the, almost, 4 years following his statement.
November 2009 - "Martin Armstrong: Gold Headed To $5,000 And Beyond!" - 6 years later and no where near. No date and no timeframe means it's BS.
April 19th, 2013 - "We elected Weekly Bearish Reversals in both metals with gold closing at 1397.2 and 2304.1. Gold closed also just below the Weekly Break line 1398.6. This is warning that the FAILURE to exceed Friday's 4/19 high intraday, and a penetration of 1310, we are looking at a drop to $1158. Breach that, and we very well may see $907 in 2 weeks." No chance. Before he said this Gold had dropped $200 in the month of April, 2013 but it ended about $90 higher after he made the statement and it did not reach or breach $1158 although the following month it came close. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 3 years later.
Dec 2012 - "The metals will be taking off during 2013, Martin believes after the summer, going all the way to 2016. Major support is at 1570." - Gold started December 2012 at $1720 and closed 2013 at $1205 - $1570 was not support and June (Summer), it went below $1200.
Oct 2013 - Gold's going to drop below $1000 - and here is an example of his flip-flopping from the previous prediction. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 2.5 years later.
Aug 9, 2013 - "Martin Armstrong has come out with this shocker – Dow 32,000 by 2015! - needless to say this wasn't even close to transpiring.
In 2013 - regarding the above DOW call: "Gold will be a beneficiary too, but in 2015." but later stated ''$650-910 price of Gold coming soon.'' - so this is an extreme flip-flop and neither came close to fruition.
September 14, 2014 - "Is Martin Armstrong Right on Sub-$1000 Gold?" - This seems to be a call that he is sticking with (see below), and I don't disagree, but the timing has not proven him correct to date.
More recently:
"The metals will bottom on the Bechmark targets. Today, gold has collapsed again back down to the 1208 level. All the screaming, hollering, kicking, biting, and name-calling will not prevent gold from meeting its fate. You have to realize there should be a retest of the 1980 high just under the $1,000 mark. There is a risk of testing the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $680. That would probably finish-off the gold promoters for quite a while. I think even a break of $1,000 will make them look rather stupid. But that is what you need at the finale
So presently, different from most of our researched analysts - Martin Armstrong is not feeding fantasies of an imminent rise in the Precious Metals - which, perhaps should be commended as he would probably get more subscribers supporting and trending the Goldbug's hopes. But it seems his, supposed, prescient calls from decades past, have not been supported with any recent calls that he can put on his resume. He seems as clueless as the rest. By making many varied calls perhaps he believes that one would stick to embolden his reputation - like a broken watch is right twice a day. I think the absolute best you can say about him now is that his colorful calls are way too early - OR at worst he should simply be ignored for any short term predictions.
Quote: (01-03-2019 06:34 PM)Walt_Heisenberg Wrote:
AAPL tanking today and taking the market with it is definitely alarming. Will more high profile companies follow with their own revised (down) guidance? Could be an ugly year and stay that way for several more. We could stagnate and face lower returns for an extend period of time. It has happened before and can happen again.
JayR, I should’ve mentioned that I too have a pretty decent 401k plan at work with a good company match. I contribute to that every paycheck so in that sense, I’m also DCA’ing and remain in the market. I’m 20+ years from retirement so hopefully things will work out long term.
But all my other money is in safe cash instruments. If you have a couple of monitors open and time to follow the markets, all this volatility is great, you can definitely make some $$ with short term trades using options, inverse ETFs, etc.
Quote: (01-04-2019 01:59 AM)demolition Wrote:
I suspect the volatility we are seeing from technology company stock is related to the coming-to-light of their fraudulent behavior. Facebook, Twitter, Google in particular have been defrauding their clientele (advertisers) for a long while now. I actually suspect that the way these things are coming to light now is an intentional act of self-immolation to harm the market (and Trump).
