It was morning in Vietnam on October 21, 2017 and I was in the middle of my first three month trip to Southeast Asia. Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo had just completed a second dominant performance to open the 2017-18 NBA season. An ebay notification came in. A buyer had offered me $8,000 for a Giannis National Treasures rookie card that I bought in March 2017 for $5,000. My best offer for the card was $6,000 just two days earlier. Instead of selling, I decided to buy more. In the next few hours, I bought two more Giannis rookie cards for a combined $3,000.
Things got even crazier the next day. Giannis scored a career-high 44 points against the Portland Trail Blazers. I was offered $9,000 for my Giannis National Treasures rookie card. I rejected the offer. The two cards I had bought the day before were in transit (so could not be listed for sale), but I estimated them to be worth around $4,000.
The above is an exceptional situation but shows what is possible in the world of basketball card speculation.
As a young child, collecting basketball cards was a hobby of mine. At the time, I would open a few $50 boxes of cards a year and trade them with friends. My focus shifted to my education and girls in high school and college, and all of the cards (worth less than $1,000 combined) went into storage. A few years ago, I looked up some cards on ebay and found many modern players with cards each worth thousands of dollars. I sensed the opportunity to make money speculating on the values.
In three years of speculating on basketball cards, my profits amounted to the low five figures. Towards the end of the 2017-18 season, I sold my cards to help fund extended travel in Southeast Asia. Here are some of my observations for anyone looking to give it a shot:
-Generational players drive the hobby in the long term and hype drives the hobby in the short term. The hype of a possible emerging generational player leads to large price increases. This dynamic is why I made a lot of money on Giannis cards.
-The winner of the MVP award will often see the largest increase of the season. But here’s the advantage over sports gambling - if you buy a 24 year old player and he wins the MVP at 26, you can hold onto his cards until that happens.
-Under the radar players who turn into stars are where the large gainers are to be found. The 5x’ers. Think Victor Oladipo in the 2017-18 season. There are not a lot of these guys and they are tough to identify so be careful on these types.
-You don’t need to get too cute with your investments. I know a guy that made six figures in profit in one year with LeBron James cards. And he was buying during the 2015-16 season after LeBron had already won two championships. I profited by purchasing Kevin Durant cards after he signed with the Warriors. Timing is very important with cards. If you know what you're doing, you can buy near sure things while others are asleep at the wheel. Knowledge, patience, and awareness are the keys.
-The majority of players’ cards are poor short term investments and the vast majority of players’ cards are poor long term investments. It sounds bleak but it’s easy enough to avoid the poor investments. Collectors (and speculators) overhype first year players and drive their prices to unsustainable levels. The time to buy is often between the players’ third and seventh years when the initial shine is off the player, but they are still improving towards a future MVP award. Exceptions apply in timing and types of players to buy. Post retirement, almost all players except the top superstars decline in value. So you do not want to be holding the cards of a 30 year old run-of-the-mill All-Star.
-Ebay is the top platform for buying and selling cards. It’s a great source of traffic, but there are a couple of negative aspects. The fees are high at 10%, although they are capped at $250 per transaction (if you have an ebay store). And there are some fake sales arranged by sellers to try to drive up the value of their similar cards. Unfortunately, ebay does not show whether an item has been paid for when you look at completed listings. So just maintain a healthy skepticism and look at comps when valuing cards.
-Social media and internet forums are a good way to circumvent ebay. Instagram in particular has a lot of potential for the social media savvy. Not only can you avoid ebay fees, but you have more ways to drive traffic to your page and build relationships.
This is a primer for basketball card speculation. I suggest doing more research before getting into it. There is the potential to make large profits, but many pitfalls along the way. I will try to answer a few questions if any arise.
Things got even crazier the next day. Giannis scored a career-high 44 points against the Portland Trail Blazers. I was offered $9,000 for my Giannis National Treasures rookie card. I rejected the offer. The two cards I had bought the day before were in transit (so could not be listed for sale), but I estimated them to be worth around $4,000.
The above is an exceptional situation but shows what is possible in the world of basketball card speculation.
As a young child, collecting basketball cards was a hobby of mine. At the time, I would open a few $50 boxes of cards a year and trade them with friends. My focus shifted to my education and girls in high school and college, and all of the cards (worth less than $1,000 combined) went into storage. A few years ago, I looked up some cards on ebay and found many modern players with cards each worth thousands of dollars. I sensed the opportunity to make money speculating on the values.
In three years of speculating on basketball cards, my profits amounted to the low five figures. Towards the end of the 2017-18 season, I sold my cards to help fund extended travel in Southeast Asia. Here are some of my observations for anyone looking to give it a shot:
-Generational players drive the hobby in the long term and hype drives the hobby in the short term. The hype of a possible emerging generational player leads to large price increases. This dynamic is why I made a lot of money on Giannis cards.
-The winner of the MVP award will often see the largest increase of the season. But here’s the advantage over sports gambling - if you buy a 24 year old player and he wins the MVP at 26, you can hold onto his cards until that happens.
-Under the radar players who turn into stars are where the large gainers are to be found. The 5x’ers. Think Victor Oladipo in the 2017-18 season. There are not a lot of these guys and they are tough to identify so be careful on these types.
-You don’t need to get too cute with your investments. I know a guy that made six figures in profit in one year with LeBron James cards. And he was buying during the 2015-16 season after LeBron had already won two championships. I profited by purchasing Kevin Durant cards after he signed with the Warriors. Timing is very important with cards. If you know what you're doing, you can buy near sure things while others are asleep at the wheel. Knowledge, patience, and awareness are the keys.
-The majority of players’ cards are poor short term investments and the vast majority of players’ cards are poor long term investments. It sounds bleak but it’s easy enough to avoid the poor investments. Collectors (and speculators) overhype first year players and drive their prices to unsustainable levels. The time to buy is often between the players’ third and seventh years when the initial shine is off the player, but they are still improving towards a future MVP award. Exceptions apply in timing and types of players to buy. Post retirement, almost all players except the top superstars decline in value. So you do not want to be holding the cards of a 30 year old run-of-the-mill All-Star.
-Ebay is the top platform for buying and selling cards. It’s a great source of traffic, but there are a couple of negative aspects. The fees are high at 10%, although they are capped at $250 per transaction (if you have an ebay store). And there are some fake sales arranged by sellers to try to drive up the value of their similar cards. Unfortunately, ebay does not show whether an item has been paid for when you look at completed listings. So just maintain a healthy skepticism and look at comps when valuing cards.
-Social media and internet forums are a good way to circumvent ebay. Instagram in particular has a lot of potential for the social media savvy. Not only can you avoid ebay fees, but you have more ways to drive traffic to your page and build relationships.
This is a primer for basketball card speculation. I suggest doing more research before getting into it. There is the potential to make large profits, but many pitfalls along the way. I will try to answer a few questions if any arise.
