Quote: (08-17-2018 11:52 AM)Abelard Lindsey Wrote:
I think Tesla is the next Theranos. I think it will fail within the next 6 to 12 months and Musk will go the same way as Delorean. I suspect the reason why SpaceX is doing so well in comparison to Tesla is that Musk is not involved in the day to day operation of SpaceX. The rocket engineers have been given pretty much free rein to do what they need to do to develop low cost space transportation and are doing so by doing essentially what my friends and I came up with as the proper strategy over 20 years ago. That is to stick with conventional rocket technology and focus on making the first stage reusable, followed by the second stage, all the while improving the manufacturing technology in making the rockets. The other reason why I think SpaceX is doing so well compared to Tesla is because, paradoxically, I think it easier to develop and manufacture reusable rockets than it is to make a reliable car as consumer product and manufacture millions of them to exacting standards. Making rockets from a manufacturing standpoint can possibly be easier because you're making only one or two of them at a time and are not trying to get the per unit cost (cost of good sold) down to a fine level. From a cost standpoint, there is way more "slop" to play with.
Remember that Musk, personally, is a marketing guy with some IT skills. His claim to fame was being one of the principles in Paypal where he was the marketing guy. Peter Thiel was the technical brain behind paypal and was their overall "brain" behind the outfit. Musk is a bright guy. But he does not personally have the engineering and technical experience or knowledge to understand the issues and processes of making an electric car or developing a reusable rocket. If Musk is falling apart its because he is way in over his head with his various companies, especially Tesla.
Glad to hear someone say it. I've thought for years this guy was ...underwhelming. More fluff than substance. A great self-promoter. Like Richard Branson, who's been selling seats on Virgin Galactac's "first tourist space flight" for YEARS...every year, commercial launch is "right around the corner!!"...but it never happens...and idiots keep putting their $100,000 deposits right into Sir Richard's pocket ...lol...meanwhile, THIS is the closest they've come: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=vir...ORM=VRDGAR
Too many millennials are smitten with Musk...i remember reading some twit's tweet that said "Someday, we'll look back and laugh that there was a time that people doubted Elon Musk or bitcoin".
That's the most millennial tweet i've ever seen. The people who believe either of those bet money on Conor McGregor to beat Floyd Mayweather...AT HIS OWN SPORT!! Which WASN'T McGregor's sport! And still the 'tards believed. Same people.
Tesla, like most founder-led businesses, can be a challenge to work at. Musk is a tin-horn tyrant given to whimsy and emotional volatility. Working for him is like working for Trump or, dare I say it, Steve Jobs. Jobs was brilliant and successful...but a complete asshole! My fave Steve Jobs story:
http://vanshardware.com/2010/07/the-lege...teve-jobs/
Not sure if true or not. But if not, it's based on the fact that Jobs WAS an ass who fired people on a whim. People who had families and kids tuition payments and mortgages. And he ruined their lives on a whim. Glad cancer ate him. Wish it was slower and more painful. Wish the same for all the megalomaniacal, turbulent, volatile a-hole bosses out there. At most companies, a CEO can't be a tyrant - there's a Board of Directors to answer to, and they have voting Shareholders to answer to, etc. The system constrains bad behavior, at least to a degree. But when the CEO and the Board and the Shareholders are all ONE man...he starts to think he's Louis XIII and shouts "Off with his head!!" every time someone is insufficiently amusing. Guys like that can all get cancer, as far as I'm concerned.
Never work for a founder-led company.