Posts: 1,616
Threads: 0
Joined: Jun 2012
Reputation:
4
018 Market Sell Off
02-08-2018, 11:18 PM
^^^ The current selloff takes us back to about thanksgiving 2017. 2 months is not a long time.
I would not be impatient and throw all ones cash/bonds at this correction just yet.
Posts: 4,327
Threads: 0
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation:
65
018 Market Sell Off
02-08-2018, 11:48 PM
Because of the magnitude of the move up in 2017 I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the market pulled back to the levels of mid 2017 or even more extreme..the first quarter of 2017.
SPY going back to 235 or so again would effectively shake out a lot of weak hands in the market.
If a bear market does end up occurring it will take awhile for that to become apparent at any rate.
Posts: 7,562
Threads: 0
Joined: May 2013
Reputation:
83
018 Market Sell Off
02-09-2018, 12:45 AM
Well darn, i'm bummed I bought in yesterday. All of those mini gains are gone and i'm inching closer to my bottom stop losses.
I have a final few grand in cash that needs to be pushed in. I'm stuck waiting for it to settle first which is good because I get trigger happy during times like this.
Posts: 1,616
Threads: 0
Joined: Jun 2012
Reputation:
4
018 Market Sell Off
02-09-2018, 01:34 AM
I am going to hold onto my dip money here. I didn't build up cash to get in on a 10% drop. Especially when these prices were ATHs just 2 months ago.
Everybody is too sure that the economy and markets are going to continue booming. During Obama everyone always seemed to think a crash was coming and it never came, now that we have a pro business president everyone expects a big boom in the economy and markets. This is when the nasty correction will likely happen, maybe not this winter but sometime within the next year. Could be wrong, have been before for sure.
Like The Crazy Chinaman said, weak hands need to be shaken out. Too many weak hands and index worshipers who have never experienced a real crash. If we don't get a healthy drop soon then whatever comes in the next few years will be real nasty.
If one isn't invested they should get in for sure but if one is already invested heavily I would not throw all the dip fund into this thing just yet.
My very amateur opinion is don't worry if we take off from here, we will get a chance to buy Dow ~25,000 again. Just don't be broke when Dow >20,000 comes.
Posts: 4,327
Threads: 0
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation:
65
018 Market Sell Off
02-09-2018, 10:09 AM
My personal opinion: If daily market gyrations, social media, or news guides your decision making especially when it comes to business or trades you shouldn't be invested in the stock market.
At the present day in the present market conditions if your time horizon isn't at least 5+ years long you have no business putting money in. If you're going to put money in then panic when it drops 50%+ in a serious pullback and sell and then use it to buy shoes or something then you'd be better off staying out of the market.