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Important for all assets
#1

Important for all assets

About a Bubble and Margin Call that will cause a crash in all assets.
Check this out:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho...the-market
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#2

Important for all assets

No, you need to explain what it is first, this isn't Reddit.

"Especially Roosh offers really good perspectives. But like MW said, at the end of the day, is he one of us?"

- Reciproke, posted on the Roosh V Forum.
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#3

Important for all assets

Quote: (03-07-2016 03:45 PM)Roosh Wrote:  

We have a lot of newbies here who don't know the best way to share articles and other links, so I wanted to create a brief guide.

How To Start A New Thread With Something You Want To Share:

1. Write a thread subject that is clear and detailed. It's better to be more detailed than vague. All members should know exactly what they're clicking on. Do not try to make your subject "enticing" to get clicks. If you are sharing a news article, simply copy and paste the headline.

2. Introduce the link by sharing a quick summary of what it's about (optional). A one sentence introduction is sufficient.

3. Share an excerpt of the link. If it's a news article, quote at least the main paragraph. If it's a video, embed it. It's better to share the best parts of an article instead of the entire text. If you do share the entire text, bold the best parts.

4. Share the source link. Paste the http:// link for users who want to learn more.

5. Share additional information from your research (optional). Pull in extra videos or pictures that put the issue in context. If your article is about a woman, share a photo of her so we can determine her bangability.

6. Add additional commentary or a reaction gif. After you share the excerpt, feel free to include your opinion on what you just shared.

Here's an example: thread-54308.html

My subject is clear, the excerpt tells members what is going on without requiring them to click over to the news article, I pull in an extra news video, and share a brief commentary on why this is important.

The bottom line is that users should know what they're clicking on when they read your subject and also when they read the excerpt that you share. Because there are so many posts on this forum, this system ensures that members don't waste their time on topics they're not interested in.
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#4

Important for all assets

I am an outlaw.

But i want to help the sheeps.[Image: hamster2.gif]
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#5

Important for all assets

The gist of the article is that the amount of borrowed money being used to buy on the NYSE has never been so astronomically high:

[Image: 97b0f7368247a431167eaa98f414d2b5.png]

If the stock price collapses even by a small amount, then there will be a desperate sell-off by overleveraged people desperately trying to pay off their debt, which will only cause the stock price to collapse further triggering a mass sell-off, since no one is investing real money in the stock market anymore - it's all borrowed leveraged money.

Note that the sheer size of the debt involved in the NYSE dwarfs any previous debt bubble. The popping of this bubble could be a catastrophic depression-level event.
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#6

Important for all assets

Even though the margin debt is at record highs let’s not exaggerate things. The S&P500 has a market capitalisation of over $20 trillion. 300 or 400 billion of Margin debt (according to the above graph) against $20+ trillion of market value does not seem like the end of the world.
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#7

Important for all assets

Seems like there's a crash every 8-10 years. I saw a dip on 2015, so that could be a minidump, with a big one coming in 2023, or one coming in 2019. I think my company's consensus is 2019 small dip and 2023 correction.

I do agree with Australia, that this article would be a lot more helpful if they had a total MC for the S&P, and a percentage of debt comparison vs the S/P as a whole.
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#8

Important for all assets

Quote: (12-30-2017 04:34 AM)True Balla Wrote:  

Seems like there's a crash every 8-10 years. I saw a dip on 2015, so that could be a minidump, with a big one coming in 2023, or one coming in 2019. I think my company's consensus is 2019 small dip and 2023 correction.

I do agree with Australia, that this article would be a lot more helpful if they had a total MC for the S&P, and a percentage of debt comparison vs the S/P as a whole.

2015 was a correction and not a crash. A crash will come soon.
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#9

Important for all assets

So, here's a question that may or may not be stupid: say this is true and stock prices dip a little and it does trigger a massive sell off and collapse in stock markets worldwide. In what way would that affect cryptocurrencies? Would they fall like stocks, go up in value, or is there no good way to say?

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
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#10

Important for all assets

^^all assets will most likely get hit as people pull everything into cash to cover their asses.

Though, I believe we might see a rush into them in the same way people desperate for yield used to rush into bonds. With interests rates so damn low, I don't think people will run to bonds like they used to.
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#11

Important for all assets

Quote: (12-30-2017 03:23 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  

Even though the margin debt is at record highs let’s not exaggerate things. The S&P500 has a market capitalisation of over $20 trillion. 300 or 400 billion of Margin debt (according to the above graph) against $20+ trillion of market value does not seem like the end of the world.

Yes, the graphic is very intentionally misleading, and to the uninformed person it would look like the amount of borrowing is proportionate to the amount of the S&P increase.

As long as rates are slowly eased up, there will be plenty of time to let air out of the bubble without a huge crash.
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#12

Important for all assets

Quote: (12-30-2017 04:55 PM)bucky Wrote:  

So, here's a question that may or may not be stupid: say this is true and stock prices dip a little and it does trigger a massive sell off and collapse in stock markets worldwide. In what way would that affect cryptocurrencies? Would they fall like stocks, go up in value, or is there no good way to say?

Crashes tend to be infectious, like when the housing bubble of 2007 pulled everything else down with it.

What will happen may be something like this:
- Stock markets crash
- Overleveraged speculators are unable to pay the banks the couple of millions that are owed to the banks
- Plus the banking sector itself invests in the stock market, thus losing a lot of value
- In effect the banks run out of cash, both from defaulting stock speculators and from the inability to turn their stock into cash (because the stock price is relatively worthless)
- This causes the banks to throttle lending and get hard ball on collecting any other debt; this leads to a decrease in consumer credit and business credit;
- The fall in overall credit offerred causes the economy to slow down and reduces growth
- Lack of growth and opportunity makes people run to the banks to take their cash, because they are struggling to make money in the real world economy, which only freaks out the banks more and may cause the collapse of weaker banks (because they will no longer be able to give their customers, the ones with savings accounts, any money - because they're 'savings' were all tied up in worthless stocks and debt)
- Collapse of even one bank will lead to a collapse of trust in the system and people will rush to withdraw their cash, ultimately leaving the banking system with nothing. Credit offerings will disappear.
- Since the modern day economy heavily relies on credit for growth, this causes the economy to collapse as a whole
- With increasing unemployment and poor business performance, people will sell their assets to put bread on the table
- Cryptos will generally be sold and demand for cryptos will be sluggish (you can't eat cryptos, and in a depression people are mostly concerned about paying for the necessities, not for assets); this will lead to a relative oversupply of people trying to get rid of cryptos, leading to a collapse in crypto price.

That's my 2c.
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#13

Important for all assets

Quote: (01-01-2018 01:10 PM)Thomas the Rhymer Wrote:  

Quote: (12-30-2017 04:55 PM)bucky Wrote:  

So, here's a question that may or may not be stupid: say this is true and stock prices dip a little and it does trigger a massive sell off and collapse in stock markets worldwide. In what way would that affect cryptocurrencies? Would they fall like stocks, go up in value, or is there no good way to say?

Crashes tend to be infectious, like when the housing bubble of 2007 pulled everything else down with it.

What will happen may be something like this:
- Stock markets crash
- Overleveraged speculators are unable to pay the banks the couple of millions that are owed to the banks
- Plus the banking sector itself invests in the stock market, thus losing a lot of value
- In effect the banks run out of cash, both from defaulting stock speculators and from the inability to turn their stock into cash (because the stock price is relatively worthless)
- This causes the banks to throttle lending and get hard ball on collecting any other debt; this leads to a decrease in consumer credit and business credit;
- The fall in overall credit offerred causes the economy to slow down and reduces growth
- Lack of growth and opportunity makes people run to the banks to take their cash, because they are struggling to make money in the real world economy, which only freaks out the banks more and may cause the collapse of weaker banks (because they will no longer be able to give their customers, the ones with savings accounts, any money - because they're 'savings' were all tied up in worthless stocks and debt)
- Collapse of even one bank will lead to a collapse of trust in the system and people will rush to withdraw their cash, ultimately leaving the banking system with nothing. Credit offerings will disappear.
- Since the modern day economy heavily relies on credit for growth, this causes the economy to collapse as a whole
- With increasing unemployment and poor business performance, people will sell their assets to put bread on the table
- Cryptos will generally be sold and demand for cryptos will be sluggish (you can't eat cryptos, and in a depression people are mostly concerned about paying for the necessities, not for assets); this will lead to a relative oversupply of people trying to get rid of cryptos, leading to a collapse in crypto price.

That's my 2c.

thanks for the post. The problem is that nobody knows when the crash come. It can be tomorrow or in 3 years. In this time you can make millions with cryptos.
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