[thebassist]

Title says it all really: hopefully we're all aware of the bitcoin hard fork coming up on October 25th (just 4 days from today), it would be interesting to see what everyone's thoughts are on the outcome of this event on the entire crypto marketplace.

The general consensus based on the outcome of august's Bitcoin Cash (BCC) hardfork seems to be that people are selling off large portions of their altcoin holdings (and no doubt injecting appreciable amounts of fresh fiat) in order to accumulate bitcoin before the fork date in the hopes of getting essentially free money- since as far as I know all wallets holding any given amount of Bitcoin will be given an equal amount of Bitcoin Gold after the date of the fork. Many seem to think that a large selloff of bitcoin will then occur after the 25th as people look to replenish their altcoin holdings, and pick up some discount alts now that their prices have been ravaged in the runup to the fork.



The circumstances this time around are appreciably different, however, such that people's predictions based on the outcomes of the previous fork may not apply.

There are two factors that I can immediately think of:

First of all, the more I read about Bitcoin Gold, the more it seems like a blatant scam:

Secondly, it is important to note that there was no comparable precedent during the last fork- such that people now think they know what will happen (i.e. many buying bitcoin think they will be getting essentially free money in the form of Bitcoin Gold that they can sell off for other investments). Now the entire psychological profile is entirely different since many are expecting a certain run of events, which will in turn most likely affect behavior in a different way when people actually had zero clue about what to expect last time around (and crucially that they didn't think they knew what was going to happen). This difference in psychology is very likely what has lead to the massive bitcoin pump that we have witnessed recently (or has been a significant contributor to it), and seems to me to be significantly larger in magnitude compared to the runup to the previous fork.

So, what do you think is going to happen? Will we see a big selloff of bitcoin right after the 25th? Is there going to be a lot of money flowing towards altcoins that are now reaching incredibly juicy price points? Will Digibyte recover to all time high levels now? Let's hear it.

[semibaron]

To be honest, I think this is the beginning of the end of bitcoin. The blockchain architecture simply doesn't scale and upgrading always brings this hard fork drama with it.

I just wait for the moment until people realise that one can fork a fork.

For the short term there are 3 scenarios:
1. Btc keeps current value and the new fork is traded in value below
2. People dump btc and cash out in Fiat, pulling the whole altcoin market with it down
3. People dump btc and the money flows back into altcoins

If you know what's going to happen, you are a billionaire.

[[email protected]]

I speculate that BTC gold is going to not be worth much. Once it sells off for less than $10 I think this might drive a temporary sell off into cheap alts. The S2x fork has much more backing by miners (I've heard 50%) and the s2x coin might be worth a lot more. BTC will sell off after the 2nd fork and Alts will make a come back. BTC price will go down but be supported by alts selling off for BTC. I just hope there are no more forks but if anyone can fork BTC that is a problem for alt community.

[SamuelBRoberts]

I know lots of people who want to sell their free bitcoin gold.

I don't know anybody who wants to buy it.

What's coming next is obvious.

[void]

Total market cap is double tapping around 175 billion market cap. If there is a market correction, which ALTS would most likely outperform.

[Jean Gabin]

Alts started to see a rise today, I think the smart money is already buying in low alts knowing BCG won't be worth much after some announcements from exchanges. I think those selling BTC after the fork will get unlucky as BTC price will drop further and alts prices will already have gone up. I was 100% BTC for the last 2 days but now getting back into some very cheap (mostly Asian) alts (WTC, MTL, OMG, NEO LINK, SUB and waiting for a ZEN dip).

[Pinocchio]

Does anyone know if I move my bitcoin off coinbase before the fork will I still get the new fork in my account?

[Steve McQueen]

What happens if your wallet does not support Bitcoin gold? Have any of you any experience on how to claim the new coins in this instance?

[SamuelBRoberts]

If it's not supported you don't get it.

[Steve McQueen]

I read somewhere that if l have my bitcoin keys then l could retro claim, anyone experience of doing that? Kraken look like they aren't going to list, any advice on which exchange will?

[semibaron]

Are we talking about the major 2x fork or the btg shit fork?

[CleanSlate]

(10-23-2017 11:41 PM)semibaron Wrote:  

Are we talking about the major 2x fork or the btg shit fork?

Both, I believe.

Anyone know what date the 2x fork is happening?

[JayJuanGee]

(10-23-2017 11:45 PM)CleanSlate Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 11:41 PM)semibaron Wrote:  

Are we talking about the major 2x fork or the btg shit fork?

Both, I believe.

Anyone know what date the 2x fork is happening?

Here's is a good count downer that is currently showing late on November 16...


http://bashco.github.io/2x_Countdown/

[Jean Gabin]

Expected pump happened (Asian coins going HAM) but I think this pump will only be short-lived, around a good 7-10 days when the new FUD on the other BTC fork will kick in. So get back into alts and enjoy the ride, my picks are above.

[thebassist]

(10-23-2017 11:51 PM)Jean Gabin Wrote:  

Expected pump happened (Asian coins going HAM) but I think this pump will only be short-lived, around a good 7-10 days when the new FUD on the other BTC fork will kick in. So get back into alts and enjoy the ride, my picks are above.

Yep, BTC is down a couple percent, and the vast majority of the rest of the tokens on CMC are in the green indicating that the BTC selloff has indeed begun.

Unfortunately my two biggest picks (REQ and LINK) haven't seen much of a bump- I was hoping to be able to sell off some of both for some Bitcoin to hedge against the 2x fork coming up. We still have some time before the market starts reacting to the so let's see what happens.

[jamaicabound]

(10-23-2017 02:35 PM)Steve McQueen Wrote:  

I read somewhere that if l have my bitcoin keys then l could retro claim, anyone experience of doing that? Kraken look like they aren't going to list, any advice on which exchange will?

I use a Trezor and they are pretty good about doing blog updates keeping you in the loop on what to expect, how to claim coins, etc. Claiming my Bitcoin Cash last time around was super easy. I will say it did take them a few days to work out the bugs to let me claim and all the while people who already had their coins on Bittrex or HitBTC were selling at the highs. By the time I got mine price had dropped so there is something to be said about keeping coins on an exchange if they support whatever upcomming fork. Anyone who's seriouis about crypto and has any serious money in it and who isn't getting a hardware wallet IMHO is pretty dumb and asking for problems, unless you are pretty tech saavy and have an offline computer or something like that.

HitBTC has been one that supported Bitcoin Cash and handled it well and is also supporting Gold as well as Segwit2X so if you want to go that route it's not a bad option. I believe Bittrex while they won't trade Gold will give it to you and let you send it off elsewhere.

As far as claiming forked coins, back during Bitcoin Cash you could send your Bitcoin from an Electrum wallet 1 to Electrum Wallt 2. Your Bitcoins will move, your Bitcoin Cash would be trapped on the first wallet. You then found a wallet which supported Bitcoin Cash and entered those private keys to claim them.

To my knowledge there aren't any Bitcoin Gold wallets out there yet.

[Steve McQueen]

Thanks mate, appreciate the advice

[Jean Gabin]

(10-25-2017 11:02 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 02:35 PM)Steve McQueen Wrote:  

I read somewhere that if l have my bitcoin keys then l could retro claim, anyone experience of doing that? Kraken look like they aren't going to list, any advice on which exchange will?

I use a Trezor and they are pretty good about doing blog updates keeping you in the loop on what to expect, how to claim coins, etc. Claiming my Bitcoin Cash last time around was super easy. I will say it did take them a few days to work out the bugs to let me claim and all the while people who already had their coins on Bittrex or HitBTC were selling at the highs. By the time I got mine price had dropped so there is something to be said about keeping coins on an exchange if they support whatever upcomming fork. Anyone who's seriouis about crypto and has any serious money in it and who isn't getting a hardware wallet IMHO is pretty dumb and asking for problems, unless you are pretty tech saavy and have an offline computer or something like that.

HitBTC has been one that supported Bitcoin Cash and handled it well and is also supporting Gold as well as Segwit2X so if you want to go that route it's not a bad option. I believe Bittrex while they won't trade Gold will give it to you and let you send it off elsewhere.

As far as claiming forked coins, back during Bitcoin Cash you could send your Bitcoin from an Electrum wallet 1 to Electrum Wallt 2. Your Bitcoins will move, your Bitcoin Cash would be trapped on the first wallet. You then found a wallet which supported Bitcoin Cash and entered those private keys to claim them.

To my knowledge there aren't any Bitcoin Gold wallets out there yet.

Strong referral link.

[MrTickle]

(10-23-2017 11:47 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Here's is a good count downer that is currently showing late on November 16...


http://bashco.github.io/2x_Countdown/

Thanks

[JayJuanGee]

(10-23-2017 10:07 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

If it's not supported you don't get it.

This post was referring to whether you could still get your forked coins, even if your wallet might not support the fork.

There are ways to claim forked coins as long as you have the private keys and even if the wallet does not support the fork. You just need to either import your keys into a claim mechanism or back-up your wallet onto another wallet that supports the fork or the splitting.

Each of us needs to be careful when attempting to claim forked coins because we do not want to give our private keys over to some scam site and we do not want to rashly attempt to claim our forked coins and end up losing our bitcoins. So in that regard, we would not want to rush to claim a coin that might be worth 1% of the value and then lose 99%, and it is not even worth it for a coin that might be worth a lot more, if you end up losing your bitcoins through such process.

Some of these coins (forks) have also not really provided protections, such as replay protection, yet, so we have to be careful with that too, in terms of prematurely attempting a claim.

These coins may or may not be like Bcash in various regards, but a lot of folks emptied their wallets of actual Bitcoin first, before attempting to claim their Bcash, because they did not want to risk their bitcoins... the bcash was still there, even after the bitcoins had been moved, so long as the bitcoins had been there at the time of the fork and so long as you had access to the private keys.

There had been some airdrops in the past that are kind of like a fork, because they allow you to claim based on your bitcoin private keys; however, some of the airdrops have date deadlines and could cause you to rush into a situation that ends up costing you more than you wished. A fork, on the other hand, is different from an airdrop because there should not necessarily be any date deadline to claim your coins, and they will be there forever as long as you had the keys at the time of the fork. Sure, we all know that one of the causes of the rush is to be able to sell the forked coins while they still have value because those forked coins could go to zero.. yet is it also possible that they could increase in value down the road. No guarantee of either, of course, even though it seems that coins will not be able to support their value if the chain does not get ongoing support in the future, so in that regard it could actually go to zero or near zero or have no place in which you can cash them out, even if you claim them 5 years (or even 1 year for that matter) down the road.

[Dvorak]

(10-21-2017 09:07 AM)thebassist Wrote:  

So, what do you think is going to happen? Will we see a big selloff of bitcoin right after the 25th? Is there going to be a lot of money flowing towards altcoins that are now reaching incredibly juicy price points?

Seems like more and more people are speculating on this scenario to happen. It's kind of what happened with BTC cash and BTC Gold.
The forked coins might also be sold quickly and re-invested in either Bitcoin or in Alts... Or just kept in cash for a while...

If BTC plunges, an estimated support level for BTC could be around 5k USD (previous resistance). So, one scenario is to pull out of BTC just after the fork and then re-invest into BTC after it takes a hit...

Of course, more people might have these strategies now, and some will want to do it a bit earlier to play it safe. So there might already be a (small) sell-off, even before the fork happens.
Or they might just keep their money in alts or USD and wait and see what happens.
Or you can just HODL, because you can shoot yourself in the foot if your timing backfires...

I'm mainly into BTC now, as I expect a good pump over the next two weeks, once the 6k resistance breaks. I'm not yet sure what I will do once the fork time comes close.

[Pinocchio]

(10-29-2017 07:54 AM)Dvorak Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 09:07 AM)thebassist Wrote:  

So, what do you think is going to happen? Will we see a big selloff of bitcoin right after the 25th? Is there going to be a lot of money flowing towards altcoins that are now reaching incredibly juicy price points?

Seems like more and more people are speculating on this scenario to happen. It's kind of what happened with BTC cash and BTC Gold.
The forked coins might also be sold quickly and re-invested in either Bitcoin or in Alts... Or just kept in cash for a while...

If BTC plunges, an estimated support level for BTC could be around 5k USD (previous resistance). So, one scenario is to pull out of BTC just after the fork and then re-invest into BTC after it takes a hit...

Of course, more people might have these strategies now, and some will want to do it a bit earlier to play it safe. So there might already be a (small) sell-off, even before the fork happens.
Or they might just keep their money in alts or USD and wait and see what happens.
Or you can just HODL, because you can shoot yourself in the foot if your timing backfires...

I'm mainly into BTC now, as I expect a good pump over the next two weeks, once the 6k resistance breaks. I'm not yet sure what I will do once the fork time comes close.

Lets say this happens and there's a sell off. Which fork will you be buying back post fork or both?

[JayJuanGee]

(10-29-2017 07:54 AM)Dvorak Wrote:  

(10-21-2017 09:07 AM)thebassist Wrote:  

So, what do you think is going to happen? Will we see a big selloff of bitcoin right after the 25th? Is there going to be a lot of money flowing towards altcoins that are now reaching incredibly juicy price points?

Seems like more and more people are speculating on this scenario to happen. It's kind of what happened with BTC cash and BTC Gold.
The forked coins might also be sold quickly and re-invested in either Bitcoin or in Alts... Or just kept in cash for a while...

If BTC plunges, an estimated support level for BTC could be around 5k USD (previous resistance). So, one scenario is to pull out of BTC just after the fork and then re-invest into BTC after it takes a hit...

Of course, more people might have these strategies now, and some will want to do it a bit earlier to play it safe. So there might already be a (small) sell-off, even before the fork happens.
Or they might just keep their money in alts or USD and wait and see what happens.
Or you can just HODL, because you can shoot yourself in the foot if your timing backfires...

I'm mainly into BTC now, as I expect a good pump over the next two weeks, once the 6k resistance breaks. I'm not yet sure what I will do once the fork time comes close.

It seems that I largely agree with some of the various scenarios that you set forth, Dvorak, and maybe I even agree with some of you asserted hesitancies regarding betting too big in one direction or another.

I know that this is a repeated theme of mine; however, you should consider ways that you can bet on your hunches, yet without betting your whole load on what you think is likely.

As you may recall the last fork, there were quite a few folks who got screwed out of coins because prices were floating in the $2600s, and then all of a sudden we were close to $4k and even our move from $4900 to $5800, seems a bit sporadic and without explanation with folks expecting larger corrections based on forks or based on expectations that the alts are going to do better, blah blah blah.

Even when I am playing so small with my bets, right now I have so much cash that I have no problem welcoming a crash, that seems on the less than likely to happen - at least not until after we have a bit of a more upwards movement, perhaps into the $6800 to $7800 territory, then we will reassess from there.

So, I guess what I am saying, if I were a betting man (which is maybe not too much of a fair hypothetical because I am not), there can be ways to cash out larger amounts of bitcoin in preparation for these possible large dips that coudl happen.. and you could cash out larger amounts, still make a decent profit if the dip happens, but continue to hold a significant amount of BTC, incase you are wrong - which was my point about bringing but the previous two runs, including the post BCH fork run and including the kind of unexpected pre- BCG run... from $4900 to $5800, which likely had very little to do with BCG, even though there is a lot of spouting out about than not too plausible explanation as if it were the sole reason for the $4900 to $5800 run up in BTC prices.

So, even though, right now, I am considering a run up to $6800 to $7800 to be in the greater than 55% territory, I have no problem being surprised by a 5% correction or a 10% correction or even up to a 30% correction. I hold a decent amount of doubt - perhaps in the 75% or greater territory that we would have a greater than 30% price correction before experiencing at least another or so upwards movement.. that is my tentative thinking.

[jamaicabound]

Has anyone actually claimed their Bitcoin Gold outside of people who got it from HitBTC or YoBit? Bittrex supposedly is handing them out but hasn't, I think Yobit recently started or will be starting soon. My Trezor hasn't allowed me to do so.

I knew Bitcoin Gold would be straight garbage, I'm pretty sure Bitcoin as we know it today will win out over Segwit2 however I'm not certain enough that I'm going to sell early. While I do think people who sell futures or sell asap get the highest value for their new split coins / altcoins, I think segwit 2 could be contentious enough that I'm willing to pass up a small bit of profit on dumping it to ensure the current Bitcoin wins out.

I'd hate to sell my Segwit2x for say a grand and then have current BTC and segwit2 swap values and I lose money.

[Dvorak]

Seems like the BTC pump has already begun, 6,4k currently. A bit earlier than I expected even, I didn't get into the exact position I wanted to (taking some losses at the alt-side), but I can't complain.

Let's hope there is some fuel in this rocket.
Remember that a rumor/news event (e.g. USA possibly banning BTC) might completely mess up any prediction/strategy.

Quote:

Even when I am playing so small with my bets, right now I have so much cash that I have no problem welcoming a crash, that seems on the less than likely to happen - at least not until after we have a bit of a more upwards movement, perhaps into the $6800 to $7800 territory, then we will reassess from there.

7,8k is quite optimistic. Let's see how far we'll go.

I've heard a possible fall to 5k with support level there a couple of times already. I might throw some extra cash at it if we have a good dip.

But who knows, current price rise might just be a general bull-run building up (total market cap is rising as well). Let's hope the 2017 run (which I missed) repeats.

(10-29-2017 10:51 AM)Pinocchio Wrote:  

Lets say this happens and there's a sell off. Which fork will you be buying back post fork or both?

The Segwit2x (B2X) bitcoin is seen as a hostile takeover from the miners. There are very few users/devs in favour of this, so I don't think it has that much long-term potential. I'm even surprised that the futures for them are currently trading at 1k: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/segwit2x/

The "Bitcoin Core" Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) seems to have overwhelming support, so I'll keep these long-term. Might keep a couple of B2X as a hedge (low chance bet).

But yeah, do your own research.