Quote: (11-03-2018 10:25 PM)2 Cool 4 U Wrote:
The only reason the Dems are leading in the polls is because Republicans, and many independents who lean Republican refuse to answer pollsters (the silent majority). Just wait until Tuesday night's election. The silent majority will turn out and cause the dems to go in a meltdown again.
See, this is something I'm not sure about.
My instinct would be to say that this is true, but is it going to be true when Trump himself isn't on the ballot? We have to remember that Trump is a master persuading force of nature that's strong enough to overturn the normal laws of how these things tend to go. Is that going to be in place when he isn't himself running?
I think the Senate looks very good with Rs picking up 2-3 seats. The House is still anyone's guess. The Democrats aren't going to get their "blue wave" because they're too crazy, but unfortunately they don't need one. The margin for error is very small. A splash is all they need.
Beyond the House, two races I'm watching closely are the Georgia and Florida governor races. Aside from 2020 implications, if Abrams and Gillum win the Democrats are going to have two new stars that they can push forward, which is very bad just by itself.
If you thought Obama was bad in his courting and encouragement of Year Zero crazies, he'll be a pipsqueak compared to those two.
I'm reasonably confident that Kemp will win in Georgia but it's still far closer than it should be. Florida is one to be very, very nervous about, as usual. It's so damn close with Gillum might even having a slight edge.