[Rushjones]

College football at its finest..

[OneManWolfPack]

LSU just messed up my safe parlay bet. Dang.

[Disco_Volante]

(09-30-2017 06:27 PM)NKD Wrote:  

What’s your next course of action?

Made this one with a bunch of alternate lines for safety, plus some MLB mixed in for sunday.

$8 to win $2280
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/416ece.../r/540790/

[NKD]

Thanks for sharing! Your predictions have been really good so far. Damn that Minnesota!!!

[Seth_Rose]

Well Disco, looks like I'll be betting against some of your picks this week. Here are mine:

1.) Broncos -3
2.) Browns +3.5
3.) Vikings -2.5
4.) Ravens +3
5.) Bucs -2.5
6.) Colts +12.5
7.) Rams +5.5
8.) Texans +3
9.) 49ers + 6.5
10.) Jets +4

Let's gooo!

[ProGambler]

(09-25-2017 08:04 AM)ProGambler Wrote:  

Surprised Steelers are only 2.5 favs vs Ravens coming back from London. Might be worth a bet to trade (back +3 or +3.5 later in the week)

Closing this at 3.5. Did the same with Denver at 2.5 and 3.5. This is real betting, not muggy parlays.

[NKD]

Aww man another 8 dollars gone

[Becon]

(09-25-2017 08:04 AM)ProGambler Wrote:  

Surprised Steelers are only 2.5 favs vs Ravens coming back from London. Might be worth a bet to trade (back +3 or +3.5 later in the week)

This is how pro gambling works. A situational travel angle would not show up in statistics. You found value laying only 2.5 points and the line closed 3.5. Since the "3" hits around 10% in NFL divisional games, a 50% play at -3.5 -110 become 60% at -2.5. The Steelers easily covered 26-9.

Disco_Volante uses the dubious premise that if every strong favorite is likely to win, then they are all likely to win. Here is Disco_Volante's actual BTC record; dollar values are approximate.

9-15-2017 BTC .01926 ($64) to win .18068 ($605) [LOSE]
9-16-2017 BTC .00983 ($35) to win .20050 ($720) [WIN]
9-18-2017 BTC .16230 ($645) to win .78034 ($3100) [LOSE]
9-29-2017 BTC .00542 ($22) to win .35839 ($1460) [LOSE].
10-1-2017 BTC .00203 ($8) to win .53182 ($2280) [LOSE].

Total bet BTC .19884, net +.01149 (5.8%, $49).

[sharknado]

I hope you guys are just doing this for fun rather than to make a profit. If it's the later, you are far better off investing the money in some ETFs.

Seriously, stop wasting your time. You can't beat Vegas over the long term.

[ProGambler]

I beat it on 2 games this week. YOU can't.

[sharknado]

Anyone can win 2 games in a week. Making money over the long-term? Not possible.

[ProGambler]

I've made 30k on NFL and im bad at it. Broncos went off favs for sb in chinese year of horse and 6.5 dogs against Panthers

[ProGambler]

Bodog and Bovada have Buccs +6. I think that may go off 3.5. Pats are near finished.

[Becon]

(10-02-2017 01:30 PM)ProGambler Wrote:  

I beat [Vegas] on 2 games this week.

You were not clear whether you got lucky and won two games, or whether you beat the closing spread by enough to cover vigorish.

(10-02-2017 02:54 PM)ProGambler Wrote:  

Bodog and Bovada have Buccs +6. I think that may go off 3.5. Pats are near finished.

Vegas opened at +4, so that line was never really available. Bodog/Bovada deal multiple lines, and advertise the "square line". Your account will get switched if you continually bet the sharp side.

[ProGambler]

I know this. Just posting what I believe is a sharp line.

[Road_Less_Taken]

(10-02-2017 06:05 PM)ProGambler Wrote:  

I know this. Just posting what I believe is a sharp line.

Keep the pics coming!

[NKD]

What’s a good bet on that game? I’m not very familiar with nfl games, but I like that it’s only 1 of 2 outcomes unlike soccer where I get fucked by games that tie

[Becon]

(10-03-2017 07:05 PM)NKD Wrote:  

What’s a good bet on that game?

(10-02-2017 02:54 PM)ProGambler Wrote:  

Bodog and Bovada have Buccs +6. I think that may go off 3.5. Pats are near finished.

Another nice call by ProGambler. Pinnacle opened at 4.5, and they are indeed down to 3.5. Bodog had Tampa Bay +6 and is down to +5 now. For the uninitiated, Pinnacle is the sharpest because they offer the lowest vigorish. They were started by former members of The Computer Group, and they take positions. When Pinnacle offers only 3.5 while square books offer more, Pinnacle is asking customers to bet New England -3.5, and discouraging bets on Tampa Bay. So Tampa Bay is the sharp side. New England has been a dynasty, but has a terrible defense now. Nevertheless, squares at Bodog want to bet Tom Brady at any price.

[Peregrine]

(10-02-2017 08:36 AM)sharknado Wrote:  

I hope you guys are just doing this for fun rather than to make a profit. If it's the later, you are far better off investing the money in some ETFs.

Seriously, stop wasting your time. You can't beat Vegas over the long term.

Correction: 99.9% of people cannot beat Vegas over the long term.

I hear this all the time in regards to fund managers. "d00d just go passive, even money managers can't beat passive/monkey throwing darts". Well, yeah. 99.9% can't and .09% of the remaining were the result of survivorship bias.

The remaining .01%? You've never heard of them and/or they're not taking your or my money.

[ProGambler]

Lions ML (4/5, -125, 1.8) my sunday best play

[Disco_Volante]

$4.8 to win $11,680. Bit of MLB mixed in. As long as jets get it done I love all the football picks.

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/e61dde.../r/540790/

Texas A&M is getting 28 at home against Bama. It's probably Kevin Sumlin's last chance to save his job so I think they'll keep it close.

[NKD]

I used to be a gamer two years ago, I honestly haven’t played a game in two years but I like to watch esports from time to time as it was one of my hobbies back when I was gamer/chronic masturbater/acne faced/beta cuck.

I started the account with 50 dollars and lost (22+8) after copying Disco’s bets (I’m not hating, I appreciate that you shared your bets. Was fun!).

So ya I turned 20 dollars into 116 not the biggest amount as I dont have much to bet with in the first place but I know my esports very well. I’ve always came out positive betting on esport, and withdrew whenever I made double my deposit. So I’ll share my wins and fuck ups and also my predictions if you guys would like but don’t blame me if you lose.

You’ll find 10 dollars missing because I have a bet going on now that I lost. Was going to win over 8k from it but tough luck

[Disco_Volante]

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/58ea63.../r/540790/

[Disco_Volante]

ok final degen for this weekend.

$43 to win $3300
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/796ea9.../r/540790/

[NKD]

These 14 games parlays are so risky and you are always picking the side that is “supposed” to win. I feel that strategy doesn’t work, sometimes the underdog or the better team loses in atleast one game which fucks up the whole parlay.

But definitely hope you win. I’m sticking to esports these days and will try to make as much as possible before the championship is over.