Another indicator which does not indicate trouble as of yet is margin debt in the U.S. stock market.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho...the-market
If you look at the graphs in the article, in the first and third graphs you will note that the increase in margin debt over the past two years has been relatively modest as opposed to the parabolic rate of increase just prior to the bursting of the tech bubble or the Global Financial Crisis. A parabolic increase typically occurs right before a major market crash. If you decide to dig into data going further back than 1995 (where the graphs start) it will still confirm this general notion.
For Australian based readers the following link shows the total returns (price change plus dividends) returns of the Australian share-market from 1900 until 2016.
http://www.marketindex.com.au/sites/defa...raphic.pdf
Only in 10 out of 116 years did the Australian share-market (All Ordinaries) post a total annual return (share price change plus dividends) that was a double digit negative figure, which shows how rare crashes actually are. Now I admit this is not comparable to a statistical coin flip/roulette wheel because obviously after a strong run the chance of a crash increases, but I still think its less likely than people seem to think. Also its noteworthy that out of 116 years, 94 years (81% of the time) the market posted a positive return.
Look at the long term chart (pick the maximum option) of household debt to GDP in Australia:
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/h...ebt-to-gdp
You will see from 2002 until around 2007/2008 the ratio increased from around 75% to around 110%. From 2009 until now its increased from around 105% to 125%. That is a much slower rate of increase. Usually credit growth hits frenzied levels just before a crash. We are not seeing that now. In fact over the past 12 months household debt to GDP has been flat. The fact that absolute levels of debt to GDP are higher now is merely a function of the fiat money system that we operate in.
Look at this graph (pick the max option)
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/p...tor-credit
You will see private sector credit growth is actually currently low by historical standards. Again a low level (low percentage increases) of private sector credit growth is not what typically precedes a crash.
Look at the Australian Household savings ratio (again pick the max option for the chart)
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/personal-savings
It has been trending down in recent years but its still nowhere near as low as it was during the tech wreck or global financial crisis indicating that perhaps households are not as confident and not engaging in the level of optimism/recklessness that you would expect to see before a major crash.
Now I could discuss all of these indicators for the U.S. market or the U.K., etc but they would paint a similar story so its not necessary.
Conclusion:
Crashes are rare. Also although debt levels are historically high (and savings rates are low) we are not seeing an exponential blow off top or extreme levels of speculation that you typically expect to see immediately prior to a major market crash.