[LeightonBlackstock]

Quote:

UK PM Theresa May announces plan to call snap general election on 8 June.
She said Britain needed certainty, stability and strong leadership following the EU referendum.
Justifying the decision, Mrs May referred to Brexit, saying: "The country is coming together but Westminster is not."
There will be a Commons vote on the proposed election on Wednesday.
Explaining her change of heart on an early election, Mrs May said: "I have concluded the only way to guarantee certainty and security for years ahead is to hold this election."

(Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39629603)

Well, well, well...

It's election time again...

[Ethan Hunt]

Conservatives will win and there's not much point in betting as you'll have to gamble significant amounts to get any decent return.

I'll check the markets and see what's on anyway.

[Traktor]

Tories and Theresa May to win it by a big majority. Labour are in disarray caused by Corbyn's weak and indecisive leadership. Although he has a lion's share of the rank and file party support, the majority of the Blarite LPP hates his guts. He can count on the support of just 40 MPs at best. Corbyn should have purged the LPP of the Blarite scum but instead dithered and allowed them to undermine him and the Party. However quite a few of their seats are safe. The Lib Dems will recover and gain at the expense of Labour and the Tories. UKIP might pick up a couple of seats but it's a big ask while the Greens could also gain.

Scotland: This is the one to watch. SNP will consolidate it's hold on Scotland. The Tories taking England could very well make up the minds of many Scots to push for independence.

Wales: Tories to come out on top followed by Labour and Plaid Cymru.

N. Ireland: Sinn Féin and DUP to further consolidate their hold as the big two further squeezing out the UUP and SDLP.

Winners: Sinn Fein, SNP, Lib Dems.

Losers: Labour

It could be the very well be a pyrrhic victory for May.

[LeightonBlackstock]

Shrewd play from May?

Strike the election iron while the other parties are so weak?

Hand herself five more years in power to deliver Brexit fully?

Finally put to rest those who keep screaming she wasn't elected whilst having something close to a second vote on the Conservative/Brexit mandate?

Maybe I'm giving her too much credit. I'm no big fan of May/The Tories but it's probably a good play, and keeps Comrade Corbyn out.

As for how I'll vote, I'm split. Would love the UKIP of 2015 back but I'm really not sure if they can pick up a single seat after the Stoke by-election.

[Surreyman]

(04-18-2017 05:59 AM)Traktor Wrote:  

Scotland: This is the one to watch. SNP will consolidate it's hold on Scotland. The Tories taking England could very well make up the minds of many Scots to push for independence.

I've got to disagree here, the SNP have almost all the seats in Scotland already, they've already got it, there's only three seats left. I'm sure they'll keep it, but there's just nothing left to consolidate.

Regarding 'pushing for independence', its up to Westminster whether they get given another referendum. They don't have the ability to just take one.

[Ethan Hunt]

William hill are offering 11/2 that unit take two or more seats.

Might take that one actually.

For winner

1/10 for conservative majority/may to be PM

5/1 for a hung parliament.

Stanjames.com are offering 10k/1 for greens to win!

I'll be voting conservatives as I live in a conservative area an that incumbent. Tactical voting for union would be same as giving labor a vote.

If I lived in a labor area I'd be voting ukip. As that'll give conservatives for biggest advantage.


Conservatives will win either way though.

[Traktor]

(04-18-2017 06:51 AM)Surreyman Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 05:59 AM)Traktor Wrote:  

Scotland: This is the one to watch. SNP will consolidate it's hold on Scotland. The Tories taking England could very well make up the minds of many Scots to push for independence.

I've got to disagree here, the SNP have almost all the seats in Scotland already, they've already got it, there's only three seats left. I'm sure they'll keep it, but there's just nothing left to consolidate.

Regarding 'pushing for independence', its up to Westminster whether they get given another referendum. They don't have the ability to just take one.

What I meant is that the SNP will hold what they have and Sturgeon will use that to strengthen her's and her party's position to push for a referendum. As for Indy Ref #2, there are more than two ways to skin a cat.

[Traktor]

My predictions:


Tories 380 +49
Labour 182 - 50
Lib Dems 11 + 3
SNP 56 NC
UKIP 1 NC
Greens 1 NC
Plaid Cymru 3 NC
Northern Ireland 18
(SF, DUP, SDLP, UUP)

Conservative majority of 100+.

[Foolsgo1d]

The opposition is in a right mess but this allows the Tories to get fat and those who are left by the side over the coming years will rally behind a party left of centre. Its all about demographs and there are an increasing number of areas that will never vote Tory.

Well off Baby boomers dying. For a lot of them this, like Brexit could be the final vote for many of them. They were hoodwinked by New Labour and will either vote Tory, UKIP or none at all.

UKIP is 2nd place and you do not get seats from second place.

Yes the Tories will win but not as big as people might think. This election will show what we're dealing with in Britain once the results are in.

[LeightonBlackstock]

Interesting development on Clacton:

Arron Banks and Douglas Carswell will both stand for this seat

Also rumours of Nigel Farage possibly standing somewhere

[Matsufubu]

Sturgeon of the SNP has called it a "huge political miscalculation", so it's probably not good for her. June 8th isn't far away and doesn't give her time to get a campaign strategy together as well as run one that will win her anything.

Nice coup de main: this will be a massacre for Corbyn. Even if you prefer his politics to May's, he is a weak leader and will lose serious votes for it. The SNP can't really gain much regardless, and by weakening Labour further May can hamstring any voting agreements between them and the SNP.

[DannyAlberta]

This is me being paranoid, but I wonder if this is being done to somehow throw a wrench into Brexit? May and much of her party are not fans of the result of the vote. Not sure how that would be accomplished other than for the Conservatives to basically throw the election and end up losing or in a minority government where Labour, Lib-Dems and SNP hold the balance of power (they were all pretty much 100% "Remain" parties).

I know not everything is a conspiracy, but there are a lot of very powerful people that are extremely butthurt over Brexit.

[britchard]

Well the SNP have nothing to gain, which explains why Sturgeon is angry about it.

I expect UKIP to get 1-10 seats, especially if Nigel stands in an area where he has a really good chance.

The Conservatives will increase their majority slightly.

I'm still not decided on how I'll vote. My vote would be part of a fairly even battle between candidates from the 3 old parties, so I may have to wrinkle my nose and vote for the Tories to stop Labour and the Lib Dems. My heart says UKIP or an independent though.

[Foolsgo1d]

You're laughing if you think any UKIP member apart from Nigel could get a seat. They're backstabbing childish amateurs.

[britchard]

A 'Number 10 source' has apparently said May doesn't want to take part in any potential TV debate. I hope this isn't the case, as otherwise there is just a circlejerk of the left wing parties, excluding UKIP.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39633696

[RaccoonFace]

Nigel weighs in:

[RaccoonFace]

Quote:

Britain’s General Election: A Ploy to Stop ‘Hard Brexit’?

Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May will likely win the parliamentary vote tomorrow that will allow her to call a General Election on June 8th this year. This means a vote is just 50 days away — less time than a usual election cycle in the United Kingdom.
May is riding the crest of a wave right now. The Conservative Party is incredibly popular. In part due to the feckless socialist leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn; the struggle of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) to find a post-Brexit raison-d’etre; and Mrs. May’s handling of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union (EU).

“Brexit means Brexit,” has been her mantra for the past few months, before she formally invoked the Article 50 mechanism by which an EU member state leaves on March 29th.

But she also inherited a manifesto from her predecessor David Cameron that she appears not to be fully signed up to. She and her government ran into the first signs on trouble emanating from this during the Budget earlier this year. Chancellor Philip Hammond was forced into an embarrassing U-turn over the issue of a tax hike — the latest in a series of policy overhang issues that has hamstrung the May government.

She will want to use this General Election to establish a personal and political mandate: allowing her to break from the Cameron government’s pledges, while kicking the Labour Party into touch for the next five years.

What this means for the Brexit process however, is concerning some.

Mrs. May was not on the Leave side at the referendum in 2016. In fact, she was a Remainer, albeit a relatively silent one through the campaign period.

Steven Woolfe, a Member of the European Parliament who sits as an independent, formerly of UKIP, told Breitbart London: “[May] wants to make this her Brexit. The election will make it her win. Therefore one of the possibilities is that those deemed hard Brexiteers will not be regarded as having the power and the mandate anymore. Therefore she can control the Brexit negotiations.

“Whether she will make that a soft or hard Brexit I don’t know but she’ll say I’m in charge and go her way”.

An EU-based source added: “Europe believes if she wins there will be a softer Brexit”.

“The European Union — if you listen to what’s coming out of the spokesman from the EU, they’ve said this is a good day for Britain and negotiations will become much easier from their perspective”.

What’s clear is that while a General Election will stabilise Mrs. May’s position, it does start to raise questions over her commitment to the “Brexit means Brexit” claim.

Other implications stretch north to Scotland, whereby the Scottish National Party (SNP), who won a vast majority of seats in 2015 will be seen to have failed if they don’t hang onto the same number in the country.

The SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, is intent on hold another referendum on Scottish independence, but her involvement in this election will perhaps make this vote itself a UK-wide referendum on the matter, especially if her vote share and number of Westminster seats declines. In Scotland, the Labour Party are monumentally unpopular, though the Conservative Party under the stewardship of Scottish leader Ruth Davidson has managed to make polling inroads into being an opposition party in the country.

Generally speaking, this election currently looks like a win-win for Mrs. May.

What it means for Brexit however, we will all need to be incredibly wary of.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/04/...rd-brexit/

[Ethan Hunt]

After a few days I've had a look at the odds.

Conservative to win has moved from 1/10 to 1/14.

UKIP to win 2 or more seats is now 7/1 up from 13/2 (6.5)

Hung parliament odds have not changed at 5/1

Bet365 are offering UKIP most seats at 750/1(at the moment 6.35% of all bets on most seats are placed here - that's volume of bets not total value)

The prediction for number of seats conservative to win is 380.5 Bets on more would yield 167% return and bets under would yield 200% return. This is probably a safe bet to make some cash on.

Labour to have less than 100 seats is being offered at 8/1.

Labour to have 150-199 seats is offered at evens.

For Sir Nigel Farage to win a seat. 7/2 (3.5).


https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri...ng-markets

[Transsimian]

(04-18-2017 06:58 AM)Ethan Hunt Wrote:  

William hill are offering 11/2 that unit take two or more seats.

I hope they succeed, who else would save us from the Dalek, Sontaran, Cybermen and Autocorrect menace.

[LeightonBlackstock]

UKIP deputy leader Peter Whittle in fine form against a Green here:

UKIP have some of the best men for Brexit/a vision of Britain that a lot of us on this forum want.

It's just a shame they've been so useless and unorganised since Farage stepped down.

Most people are going Tactical Tories. But that could water down Brexit and immigration. (Ruth Davidson has already hinted at this).

Even a couple of UKIP MP's in the commons would be hugely beneficial.

I may vote for them out of principle. But my prediction is they will return zero MP's.

But, I think Arron Banks has a good chance of taking Clacton now that Carswell isn't standing.

[LeightonBlackstock]

Fish finger to stand for election against Lib Dem leader Tim Farron

Quote:

Pranksters have raised over £1,300 (US$1,667) to run a breaded finger of cod against Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron at the upcoming general election on June 8.

Candidates standing for election in the UK must pay a deposit of £500, which is kept by the Treasury if the individual fails to get five percent of the constituency vote.

In his crowdfunding page, the candidate, who goes by the name Mr. Fish Finger, vowed to “knock Tim Farron off his perch and put him in his plaice.”

It is believed the candidate for the Westmorland and Lonsdale seat in Cumbria will attend all campaigning events dressed as a fish finger.

“Any funds raised above £500 will ensure that Mr. Finger looks dashing as he embarks on his new career,” a statement on the crowdfunding website added".

(https://www.rt.com/uk/385433-fish-finger-tim-farron/)

This literally had me laughing out loud for an entire journey on the Bangkok BTS

[Gambler]

It will be interesting to see how UKIP will do in this election. With "Leave" vote winning the referendum, their mission is now accomplished and people don't have any reason to vote for them anymore...

[Nowak]

(04-21-2017 07:52 AM)Gambler Wrote:  

It will be interesting to see how UKIP will do in this election. With "Leave" vote winning the referendum, their mission is now accomplished and people don't have any reason to vote for them anymore...

UKIP will pressure May for the hardest of a hard brexit. After 2019 I'm sure Farage, Kassam and Banks will create an edgier version of the tories. Even pro Brexit Tories are cucking on immigration limits. IMO all English speaking nations are too cucked culturally ,even Germany and Netherlands have some genuine reactionaries. Liberty GB is the only decent political party in the UK. Farage is great, but he's too liberal on cultural issues.

[Traktor]

UKIP will be lucky to win any seats. They are in a mess internally and their support has been dribbling away to the Tories. Hence my prediction for a big Conservative win.

What is unique about this election is that it's not about the traditional Cons v Lab that we have all grown accustomed to since the 1920s, but Cons v SNP. The SNP and Sinn Fein are the jokers in the pack. The political landscape in the UK has changed beyond recognition since the last GE. As I said earlier, this could well be the last GE in the UK in it's current form.

[Teedub]

That Fish Finger thing is absurdist British humour at its finest. Laughing out loud.