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Things seem pretty grim, but I'm not sure about the timing. 20 years seems a long time to wait for the debt to become a major problem.
The debt
is a major problem. Not in the future,
now. When your debt is rising at such a rate that boom time growth can't stop it, and that debt is shortly going to hit the point where the US
can't even make the interest payments on the loan, your problem is not in 20 years' time, it's right now, and you need to plan accordingly.
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Who knows what will happen in the meantime - an AI revolution can drop costs in all industries making debt irrelevant,
AI will not save the world. If AI does prove to be the Second Industrial Revolution as most people with vested interests in it claim it will, it will cause massive poverty, disruption, and death as all those people who used to work for a living are replaced by the machines -- just as the First Industrial Revolution caused massive upheavals as the people were forced like fucking rats to the mills and the textile houses in order to survive -- off the land, and kids as young as 10 went down the mines.
Kids 10 and younger are being encouraged to learn to code, I might add.
People on the Right sneered that those fired journalists should go learn to code, like they'd sneered at those manufacture workers. What's missing the point is that the AI will shortly learn to code for itself. When it does, that industry is gone as well, or gone to India or China. I have seen futurist shitheads claim the future is going to be in the creativity industries. This is Tim Ferriss taken to the point of the absurd. I believe in that just as much as I believe shitheads who think there's a future in Amazon being the supermarket of the world and all of us running around as delivery drivers to one another.
Reduced costs in industries making debt irrelevant doesn't remove all the bodies that are suddenly no longer needed. And if you think a Universal Basic Income is going to solve these problems, I will again point you to the US national debt and the fact it can't even do Social Security or the VA competently or properly, let alone give money to 200 million Americans who'll have zero incentive
and zero capacity to compete with the AIs for jobs.
AI is not going to be the great blessing to all mankind. No more than the Internet was. That started out and got away from the powers that be real quick...for a while. It's being curtailed now, starting (where else?) in Europe. Eventually, and most likely with the help of AI, it's going to be turned into little better than and as useless as CB Radio in terms of keeping people employed.
Same will happen with AI: maybe an early breakout and lots of innovation, but because people are fucking stupid and like to only shop at one place for all their shit, it'll wind up under the hegemony of a few corporations who'll use it for their best advantage, not that of humanity.
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China's further rise can disrupt the balance of power, blockchain can disrupt the banking system, etc...
If China rises, it will not be to the benefit of the United States. And
if the Sinophiliacs are even right, you will see a world with very different values, morals, and ethics than Western freedom. There's no press or religious freedom in China, and they are working very hard on their state-based suppression social engine right now.
The only thing blockchain is going to disrupt is the market for gold - at best. There is no such thing as an unbreakable computer system ... especially with notional AI assistance. And here's the thing: if blockchain proves to generate a more trusted form of currency than fiat currency, that will actually
trigger the destruction of the US dollar. Because the only thing keeping the US dollar together is the fact there's so much of the shit worldwide and because most of the US is doped up on cheap consumer credit, and will be right to the day it goes over the cliff.
Remissas, discite, vivet.
God save us from people who mean well. -storm