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Tech startup analysis thread
#1

Tech startup analysis thread

I searched for a thread on tech startup news and analysis, and came up empty, so here goes.

Analyzing startups are important from a sociological perspective because they account for much of the social disruption the manosphere has been discussing for the last decade (facebook, snapchat, tinder, instagram and their downstream effects on social relations). From an economic view, startups are a minuscule part of the economy numbers-wise (VC is a small percentage of total PE deal activity, and PE itself is a small percentage of the economy as a whole). However, they occupy a crucial part of the American Dream- pushing along the (sometimes) myth that anyone can be successful if only they work hard enough. I'm also going to post stuff about valley powerhouses like FB and TWTR, even though they aren't technically startups anymore, because they are important to the business culture of SV.

In this week's news so far is the acquisition of Jet.com by Walmart. Some quick takeaways for how this may affect you if you're an entrepreneur- it may provide a minor boost to the private markets in terms of liquidity events. Word around the valley is that Corporate M&A teams are getting hungry, chatter is increasing the past few weeks compared to the lull in the market since Q3 '15.

What's more important in my mind about the Jet.com deal is the long term ramifications for traditional retail (in person stores). I think there is always going to be a place for in person stores at the high end (the ultra rich prize inefficiency, whether it be in hand built engines for their Aston or a lush in person shopping experience), but it remains to be seen whether mainstream retail stores will exist in the future. Loss of mainstream retail = huge reduction in jobs for all the folks working at walmart, target, etc, across the country. The story of tech disruption eating jobs continues.
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#2

Tech startup analysis thread

The ultra rich don't prize "inefficiency", they value "experience". Efficiency is in the eyes of the beholder, much like beauty. The Chanel/Lambo store experience might be a bitch to us but great to Mos Def or *InsertRichPerson*.

This article explains perfectly the current state of malls, the average malls are in life support while the luxury ones are on steroids when it comes to traffic and earnings.

http://www.racked.com/2016/8/2/12290506/...oast-plaza

Instead of fighting "the man", join in.

Cattle 5000 Rustlings #RustleHouseRecords #5000Posts
Houston (Montrose), Texas

"May get ugly at times. But we get by. Real Niggas never die." - cdr

Follow the Rustler on Twitter | Telegram: CattleRustler

Game is the difference between a broke average looking dude in a 2nd tier city turning bad bitch feminists into maids and fucktoys and a well to do lawyer with 50x the dough taking 3 dates to bang broads in philly.
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#3

Tech startup analysis thread

Quote: (08-08-2016 04:50 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  

The ultra rich don't prize "inefficiency", they value "experience". Efficiency is in the eyes of the beholder, much like beauty. The Chanel/Lambo store experience might be a bitch to us but great to Mos Def or *InsertRichPerson*.

This article explains perfectly the current state of malls, the average malls are in life support while the luxury ones are on steroids when it comes to traffic and earnings.

http://www.racked.com/2016/8/2/12290506/...oast-plaza

Instead of fighting "the man", join in.

Great article about the growth of luxury retail in general and South Coast Plaza in particular, thanks for the link. Brought back memories of the bar at charlie palmer, which is a good spot for upper class OC chicks.

Some telling quotes from the article:

"upmarket meccas account for 44 percent of all mall value, despite only representing about 10 percent of the entire American mall pie".

Follows the same trend predicted by Robin Hanson/Tyler Cowen/et all a decade ago that luxury industries catering to the ultrarich will start to take bigger and bigger slices of the economy as advances in automation and globalization solidify the gains at the top.

"One leg-up for brick and mortar, specifically luxury brick and mortar, is what retail experts call "touch factor." Trying on a Valentino gown, feeling the weight of a Cartier tennis bracelet on your wrist, climbing into a BMW and smelling the new leather upholstery. "You don't mind walking into those high end retailers. You don't mind being seen in one of those stores," says Gold. "Those brands have been able to be the one exception where you want to touch it, feel it, be a part of it."

Interesting to see what the technological limitations are on replicating this "touch factor" at home through VR/AR. There are already apps out there that scan your photos and then overlay clothes you may want to buy on top of your figure, but they are ridiculously rudimentary. How real will the simulation get?
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#4

Tech startup analysis thread

Great thread, thanks. Please do keep posting.
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#5

Tech startup analysis thread

I'm sure everyone has seen the Instagram Stories update. I know guys in the online dating/social media threads are figuring out how to adapt their instagram game with this change.

Ben Thompson of Stratechery (excellent tech blog, btw) had some relevant commentary on the necessity of Zuck and Systrom's swipe at Snapchat's userbase, because social media advertising is a zero sum game at the end of the day:

Quote:Quote:

What makes the Snapchat threat to Facebook unique is that it does a fundamentally different job: by starting with ephemerality Snapchat gave its users, initially teens eternally eager to escape adults’ prying eyes, permission to be themselves. And so while Snapchat has photos and videos and messaging — just like Facebook and Instagram — it is not complementary but orthogonal.

In a vacuum this is fine: by virtue of doing a different job Snapchat is not really a threat to Facebook’s (or Instagram’s) core use case or primary value proposition, which is owning identity. Advertising-based consumer products don’t live in a vacuum though, because attention is a zero-sum game: as Snapchat gobbles up more and more attention Facebook’s addressable market for advertising is by definition shrinking.

Thompson also comments on the inherent UX tension of trying to squeeze Snapchat-esque spontaneity into Instagram, which thrives on permanance and perfection:

Quote:Quote:

It’s not certain Facebook and Instagram will succeed, and the risk is significant: the only thing harder than rewiring users’ expectations for a massively successful product is ensuring said rewiring doesn’t turn them off from the app entirely, destroying the very value you are trying to leverage (and, frankly, it may be too late).

Good read: https://stratechery.com/2016/the-audacit...ying-well/
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#6

Tech startup analysis thread

Quote: (08-08-2016 04:36 PM)Leo_Decashio Wrote:  

In this week's news so far is the acquisition of Jet.com by Walmart.

They burned through $200+ million dollars in a year or two and if Walmart didn't step in they probably would have just folded. Congratulations to Jet.com on finding an exit.
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#7

Tech startup analysis thread

Quote: (08-08-2016 05:52 PM)Leo_Decashio Wrote:  

Quote: (08-08-2016 04:50 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  

The ultra rich don't prize "inefficiency", they value "experience". Efficiency is in the eyes of the beholder, much like beauty. The Chanel/Lambo store experience might be a bitch to us but great to Mos Def or *InsertRichPerson*.

This article explains perfectly the current state of malls, the average malls are in life support while the luxury ones are on steroids when it comes to traffic and earnings.

http://www.racked.com/2016/8/2/12290506/...oast-plaza

Instead of fighting "the man", join in.

Great article about the growth of luxury retail in general and South Coast Plaza in particular, thanks for the link. Brought back memories of the bar at charlie palmer, which is a good spot for upper class OC chicks.

Some telling quotes from the article:

"upmarket meccas account for 44 percent of all mall value, despite only representing about 10 percent of the entire American mall pie".

Follows the same trend predicted by Robin Hanson/Tyler Cowen/et all a decade ago that luxury industries catering to the ultrarich will start to take bigger and bigger slices of the economy as advances in automation and globalization solidify the gains at the top.

"One leg-up for brick and mortar, specifically luxury brick and mortar, is what retail experts call "touch factor." Trying on a Valentino gown, feeling the weight of a Cartier tennis bracelet on your wrist, climbing into a BMW and smelling the new leather upholstery. "You don't mind walking into those high end retailers. You don't mind being seen in one of those stores," says Gold. "Those brands have been able to be the one exception where you want to touch it, feel it, be a part of it."

Interesting to see what the technological limitations are on replicating this "touch factor" at home through VR/AR. There are already apps out there that scan your photos and then overlay clothes you may want to buy on top of your figure, but they are ridiculously rudimentary. How real will the simulation get?

VR/AR is making great strides and is just learning how to walk, as seen in Pokemon GO. A head honcho at Dreamworks recently stated in a conference that within 10 years we will be able to interact with movies, as in talking to the movie and the movie will respond. To me that seems stupid, a bunch of different people talking at the same time inside a cinema but beats me. So we're about to enter the "iphone app" phase where simple stuff get launched easily (tic tac toe on iphone) and then innovation will be the differentiator (Pokemon Go).

Some rides at Six Flags are now "4D" where you get to experience things through touch. There's a SpongeBob Square-pants ride in their Dallas location where mist is sprayed during the ride and the floor shakes as well giving you a "full immersion" experience. Now rides want you to "feel" as well or even interact with you, such as XBOX kinect. I think the last stage we went through was online gaming, where previously played with their friends on one TV.....people could now play with Lin Lin in China.

If you're gonna sell, sell to the following: Rich old white women. They are scared of their fading looks and will throw money to fix the issue.

Touch factor will be cool for window shopping or those who want to experience how it feels to have luxury items. Luxury consumers won't take VR as a substitute even if the experience were the same, they want the real deal. It's hard to substitute "dem feelz". A VR Cartier bracelet won't give her the tingles as much as the real deal will, and as we know....women will go to great lengths to satisfy their hamster. This is coming from previous experience in dealing with this demographic, you can throw them a great discount, free shipping, great customer service but they would rather drive somewhere and try it out because if it doesn't fit and they don't like it then their time was wasted. They value their time more than anything since they cannot get it back and they could have been having spa/country club time....or mojitos at some "see and be seen" spot

Would you rather try a BMW in Gran Turismo 6 or on Pacific Coast Highway?

Edit: In the end we will end up with two things....Walmart for the masses and South Coast Plaza's for the ballers. People can only complain about "the elite" so much, join them (get rich by selling them what they want) or be their serf (worker) because there won't be a middle class.

Cattle 5000 Rustlings #RustleHouseRecords #5000Posts
Houston (Montrose), Texas

"May get ugly at times. But we get by. Real Niggas never die." - cdr

Follow the Rustler on Twitter | Telegram: CattleRustler

Game is the difference between a broke average looking dude in a 2nd tier city turning bad bitch feminists into maids and fucktoys and a well to do lawyer with 50x the dough taking 3 dates to bang broads in philly.
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#8

Tech startup analysis thread

Listen to Cattle Rustler. While not expert I have seen some in the area of Luxury goods and it is as he describes. For example getting to see Luis Vuitton's private sales room is an interesting experience.

However experience is not the only thing you are competing with. The luxury sector is also built on mystique. While an Armani suit might be better made than most other suits out there (although probably not much better than the premium IndoChino suits that are popular on here), that isn't the point. There are also much better ties than Hermes and much better loafers than Ferragmo....for less money.

That is not the point. The point is that these brands are about prestige. The most common vernacular way that I can describe is that the whole point of wearing a Hermes belt buckle with a Rolex is not because of quality, it is because it shows other people that you are better than them while allowing those who are "part of the club" to recognize you as such. Why do you think that literally every other Wall Street employee between entry level and the "Big Swingin Dicks" wears Ferragamo loafers with a Hermes belt buckle and tie? It is about social proofing.

In order to succeed in the luxury sector you need to be able to create mystique. This can come from using new materials or weaves, hiring brand name designers for clothes, utilizing food ingredients from the latest trendy farming techniques..... or for example You could advertise luxury real estate by building up a mystique around the builder's name and the over the top style of said real estate

Last example highlighted for a reason. Trump is one of the best examples I can think of off the top of my head about how to break into a luxury market without having a pre-existing prestige advantage.

How to apply that to whatever product you have in mind is something you have to figure out.
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#9

Tech startup analysis thread

I don't understand the logic of the Jet purchase.

Wal-Mart seemingly made its money on centralization, same as Amazon. Jet is really just a market place, right? Not remarkably different from eBay or Ali Baba.

As for the end of retail
- drone delivery
- high quality 3d print on demand
- uber of everything, where you don't own, you just rent for a time, with an army of people and computers to keep it organized.

WIA
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