[big poppa]

Winner take all

Florida (99)
Illinois (69)
Ohio (66)
Missouri (52)

Proportional
North Carolina (72 )

5 states voting. How many will Trump win?

[big poppa]

FLORIDA
7 most recent Florida polls have Trump polling at 36-45, Rubio 20-24 with one outlier at 30. Cruz at 16-19 in all 7 polls. Finishing 3rd would be a hilarious way for Rubio to leave this race looking worse than Jeb. Unfortunately I think he'll hold off Cruz.


Trump 42
Rubio 26
Cruz 24
Kasich 8


ILLINOIS

1 poll taken between Feb 15 - March 6 has Trump at 32, Cruz 22, Rubio 21, Kasich 18. I believe Rubio will embarrass himself further by finishing 4th here. I can see Kasich making a run, but Trump should hold him off. Open primary benefits Trump.

Trump 33
Kasich 29
Cruz 23
Rubio 15

OHIO
Trump averages 36, Kasich 34 over the last 5 polls. I think Kasich will win Ohio, he seems a likable enough guy, and apparently he's done alright as Governor.

Kasich 37
Trump 34
Cruz 20
Rubio 10

MISSOURI
No polling data. I'll give this one to Cruz but who knows



NORTH CAROLINA

1 recent poll has Trump 41, Cruz 27, Rubio 14 Kasich 11. This one is proportional so a close 2nd wouldn't be the end of the world. But it will force the establishment to push for a Cruz/Kasich ticket.

Trump 36 (30)
Cruz 31 (28)
Kasich 17 (7)
Rubio 16 (7)

198 Trump = 656 (90% of target)
80 Cruz = 439 (55% of target)
73 Kasich = 109 (20% of target)
7 Rubio (lol) = 158 (25% of target)

[8ball]

After the surprise in Hawai, i am bullish on trump. I say he wins all states. While the last fox poll has kasich ahead in ohio, i highly doubt its accuracy of "likely voters."


The humiliation of Rubio in florida will be as bad as Bush's SC gangbang. Trump humiliated him so bad, called his brother a liar who knew there were no WMD's, told him that maybe his mommy should be running and still got 4 times the votes. It was a brutal shaaalaacking. Once rubio drops out, the moderate votes will actually go to trump. Also whoever the donor's pick as the next messiah the voters will absolutely despise.

[Grodin]

I think he'll win 3 of 5

[Samseau]

He wins them all handidly. Ohio is the wildcard. However, I feel Trump's chances in Ohio are good because:

1. It's an open primary
2. Trump beat Kasich by 10% in Michigan, which is shares a huge overlap of culture and population with Ohio.

Trump is looking great heading into March 15, the only things that could fuck him over bad is the next debate. We shall see.

[Guitarman]

(03-10-2016 07:02 AM)big poppa Wrote:  

FLORIDA
7 most recent Florida polls have Trump polling at 36-45, Rubio 20-24 with one outlier at 30. Cruz at 16-19 in all 7 polls. Finishing 3rd would be a hilarious way for Rubio to leave this race looking worse than Jeb. Unfortunately I think he'll hold off Cruz.


Trump 42
Rubio 26
Cruz 24
Kasich 8


ILLINOIS

1 poll taken between Feb 15 - March 6 has Trump at 32, Cruz 22, Rubio 21, Kasich 18. I believe Rubio will embarrass himself further by finishing 4th here. I can see Kasich making a run, but Trump should hold him off. Open primary benefits Trump.

Trump 33
Kasich 29
Cruz 23
Rubio 15

OHIO
Trump averages 36, Kasich 34 over the last 5 polls. I think Kasich will win Ohio, he seems a likable enough guy, and apparently he's done alright as Governor.

Kasich 37
Trump 34
Cruz 20
Rubio 10

MISSOURI
No polling data. I'll give this one to Cruz but who knows



NORTH CAROLINA

1 recent poll has Trump 41, Cruz 27, Rubio 14 Kasich 11. This one is proportional so a close 2nd wouldn't be the end of the world. But it will force the establishment to push for a Cruz/Kasich ticket.

Trump 36 (30)
Cruz 31 (28)
Kasich 17 (7)
Rubio 16 (7)

198 Trump = 656 (90% of target)
80 Cruz = 439 (55% of target)
73 Kasich = 109 (20% of target)
7 Rubio (lol) = 158 (25% of target)

I'll stand by your analysis Big popper, thats what I think too.

Trump 3/5, including Florida.
Ohio to Kasich.
Missouri to Cruz.

Of course I would like Trump to storm all five but expecting 3/5 is good.

[Samseau]

How is Missouri going to Cruz when Trump has steamrolled the south so far?

[Guitarman]

Well. that would be even better if Trump get's 4/5. That is what I would like to see. But as big poppa said, he has not seen any polling data on Missouri.

[Samseau]

(03-10-2016 01:27 PM)Guitarman Wrote:  

Well. that would be even better if Trump get's 4/5. That is what I would like to see. But as big poppa said, he has not seen any polling data on Missouri.

The polling data is the other primary results of nearby states. Trump has taken every state nearby - Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Alabama. It would be an extreme anomaly for Trump to lose Missouri.

[Eastside]

(03-10-2016 01:39 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(03-10-2016 01:27 PM)Guitarman Wrote:  

Well. that would be even better if Trump get's 4/5. That is what I would like to see. But as big poppa said, he has not seen any polling data on Missouri.

The polling data is the other primary results of nearby states. Trump has taken every state nearby - Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Alabama. It would be an extreme anomaly for Trump to lose Missouri.

But Missouri also borders Kansas, Oklahoma, and Iowa. It's somewhat of a tweener state. Could go both ways.

[C-Note]

(03-10-2016 01:19 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

How is Missouri going to Cruz when Trump has steamrolled the south so far?

The campaign against Trump by Evangelical leaders has hurt him in the tornado alley states. So, Missouri should be close between Trump and Cruz.

[Samseau]

But, Missouri is an open primary. Adv Trump.

[Penta Sahi]

I think 3/5 is good, as long as Trump gets Florida (which it looks like he should).

Ohio looks like it might go Kasich. Oh well, the man literally has been camped out there for months now, and he is the current governor.

Missouri, sure let's give that to Cruz.

The rest should go to Trump by decent margins.

[big poppa]

As Eastside mentioned, I saw a lot of nearby states pick Cruz which is why I went with him in Missouri. 3 border states have gone Trump, 3 Cruz with Illinois and Nebraska left to vote. I figure I'd give Illinois to Trump and Missouri to Cruz.

I'm pretty clueless with American demographics so it was more of a random guess than anything.

[C-Note]

(03-10-2016 03:01 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

But, Missouri is an open primary. Adv Trump.

The south/southeast region of Missouri is one of the poorest white areas in the US, on par with West Virginia, so I'm curious how Trump will do with the voters there. He should do well. Cruz may do better in Kansas City and St. Louis.

[Libertas]

I think he'll win 4 of 5 and lose Ohio.

I think a poll just came out that showed Trump at around 45% ins Missouri.

[bootyhuntah]

4/5 with Ohio being the questionable one. Predictit.org has Trump at $0.43 and Kasich at $0.61 as of today.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/1942/Wh...an-primary

[big poppa]

Illinois has released a 2nd poll. Trump 33 Cruz 20 Kasich 18 Rubio 11.

NC poll has Trump 48 - Cruz 28 Kasich 12 Rubio 8

Trump/Kasich neck and neck in Ohio

Missouri Trump 36 Cruz 29.


3/5 is worst case scenario. 4/5 would be the goal. 5/5 and they may as well call it now.

[iop890]

I said four, but five is easily doable.

Kasich has a chance at Ohio, but I give Trump an edge. 65% chance Trump takes it.

Cruz has a small chance at Missouri, though I think the last debate sealed it for Trump, plus open primaries benefit Trump.

Would love to see the rat win 0 states, and that looks likely.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

I wish I could change my vote to 5/5.

[RawGod]

champagne is on ice for Tuesday night.

[Gmac]

5/5 for me. Last night sealed the deal. Headed out to cast my vote right now...

[Liberty Sea]

I'm glad I voted 5/5.
And the voting has not even begun.

[iop890]

After watching things develop last night I'm changing my answer to 5/5.

Can't re-vote but that's my prediction.

[Samseau]

The way Cruz, Kaisch, and Rubio all cucked for violent "protestors" was simply disgraceful. Any states Trump loses will reveal where there is a big cuckservative problem.