[Penta Sahi]

We're just two days from the New Hampshire Primary, and with the last debate out of the way, it's time for another round of predictions.

This one should be much easier. Trump has been leading for a long time by a solid lead, and it looks like the media have basically resigned to Trump winning NH. The question is by how much?

Just for the record, I don't think anyone got the Iowa prediction right, though 11 of us (including me) did correctly predict he would get 2nd place.

My prediction: Trump gets a solid win (10-19%).

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

I would love to say "yuuuuuuuuuge", but after Iowa it's best to not be too enthusiastic.

[Tex]

(02-07-2016 03:08 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

I would love to say "yuuuuuuuuuge", but after Iowa it's best to not be too enthusiastic.

I feel the same way. Though this time around there's more reason to be enthusiastic. In Iowa around this time Trump's lead was narrowing, but now his lead is growing according to certain polls. And Cruz and Rubio are both getting burnt in each other's fire.

[Deepdiver]

Trump wins by a solid margin means America WINS by a solid margin!

[Irenicus]

Win by a solid margin.

Trump is against very powerful, very evil and extremely desperate people.

They will throw everything against him, no doubt.

Hang on, Emperor!

[Samseau]

^ LOL nice Rubio avatar.

[ElJefe]

NH is a shoe in. After the debate, the undecideds will not coalesce around any one candidate. Divide and conquer.

[n0000]

Trump wins for sure. Rubios terrible performance and Crackhouse Cruz's vote stealing scandal probably cemented his lead.

[Irenicus]

(02-07-2016 06:03 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

^ LOL nice Rubio avatar.

I laughed so hard when I saw it on the Trump thread. I could not resist.

[Tytalus]

(02-07-2016 03:08 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

I would love to say "yuuuuuuuuuge", but after Iowa it's best to not be too enthusiastic.

I'm really curious to see what kind of crap the republican party establishment pulls to make sure cruz or rubio do better than trump.

[I DIDN'T KILL MY WIFE]

This is it boys, this is the last time the betting odds on a Trump republican nomination and Trump president will be favorable for betting your money. They have already dropped from the beginning of last week (meaning people give him more chances), and if he wins now they'll just plummet and become unattractive for betting. So now is your last chance to cash in on the coming Trumpenkrieg.

[godfather dust]

I give him 10-20%.

My main concern is establishment fuckery, I worry they don't even count the votes, just sit in a boardroom and come up with results that are plausible but hurt Trump.

[RexImperator]

I'm thinking he will win but things will have also tightened up.

[Kickb]

I predict voter fraud.

[spokepoker]

That's a sure bet.

[Fast Eddie]

Yeah, I'm hoping for the best but as always, expecting the worst and not becoming too invested. Aside from possible voter fraud, which cannot really be quantified at this point and so is pointless to discuss, there are other factors at play.

According to some of the analysis of the polling that I've read, Trump has a solid 30% base of support, but the other 70% of the NH electorate is pretty hard core anti Trump. So if there was a consensus establishment candidate at this point, Trump would pretty much be screwed. As it is, the 3 guys who come after Trump are basically evenly split right now, so anti-Trump cucks will have no idea who to vote for in order to defeat him. Still, it's possible that by sheer chance one of Rubio/Cruz/Bush will receive a disproportionate share of the "anyone but Trump" vote.

Furthermore, NH is a much more liberal state than Iowa and the primary process is a lot easier than caucusing. So, it's possible that leftist agitators will try to vote in the republican primary to try and stump the Trump.

Finally, at least according to the articles I've seen, Trump's supports comes disproportionately from the never voted/usually don't vote demographic. Hopefully they turn out this time, but the proof will be in the pudding.

[username]

This will put somewhat of a limit on the manipulations by the Republican party:

Quote:

The New Hampshire primary is different from Iowa in that it is organised not by the political parties, but by the state. There are 307 voting stations and voting takes place by secret ballot.

So I think a good Trump victory is highly likely.

[rw95]

If Trump doesn't win NH, time to start buying/prepping the guns and ammunition. It will be clear that the elites will make sure that Trump doesn't get into office.

[Liberty Sea]

The establishment is probably not stupid enough to have Trump lose New Hamshire. They know people will get suspicious. They probably have an establishment candidate win a strong second place, if they rig it at all.

[Samseau]

(02-08-2016 09:59 PM)Kickb Wrote:  

I predict voter fraud.

The one thing that baffles me the most is why Trump isn't using his billions to monitor the votes and verify the counts. There is no better use of his money.

[Liberty Sea]

I wonder if that is allowed though? Isn't it supposed to be done by the state? How can a candidate participate in the monitoring process of -secret- ballot? Won't that be charged with trying to tamper with the vote?

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

Don't you have election observers in USA...? Both the state/federal government and each candidate should be able to send as many people as they want to monitor the voting process and vote counts/recounts, with the only requirement being that they peacefully cooperate and don't disturb anything.

Incidentally, that's how I know for sure that fucked up European politics are the result of European voters actually being retarded and not of any election fraud or manipulation.

[Gmac]

For the record I voted:

Trump wins by a YUGE margin (over 20% from 2nd place)*

[Gmac]

delete

[RaccoonFace]

Trump ends up winning with a 19,9% difference: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/