[NASA Test Pilot]

The intended scope is large while attempting to tie together common threads. The seed idea came from a forum related the US Dollar titled, Why is the US dollar so high? Located here:
thread-53166.html



I want to throw out the first grenade to get things moving.

WWIII has already started. It is manifesting in Ukraine and Syria and it will continue to spread. The next stop may be Saudi Arabia and Yemen.



There is a Ukraine conflict lounge started by Roosh located here:
thread-33751.html

[Habano]

Interesting idea. There are a lot of regional conflicts that have the potential to go global.

In Europe, you have Russia/EE vs. NATO. I think tensions in Europe itself have eased a bit in recent months because there's a common enemy in Syria (when the Russians don't fly into Turkey), but it can definitely spiral out of control quickly.

As discussed in some other threads, you have the Shias and Sunnis in the Middle East. Iran and Saudi Arabia are fighting proxy wars with each other in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Low oil prices erode the common bond they share in OPEC and makes escalating conflict more likely.

One scenario I haven't seen much discussion on the forum is the South China Sea. The place is an absolute powder keg with China building artificial islands for its military. The U.S. doesn't recognize China's claims in the region and continues to maintain a major presence there. With trade falling apart in China, the prospects of a Trump presidency, and continued U.S. aircraft flyovers of the artificial islands, it's ripe of escalation.

[thoughtgypsy]

(01-24-2016 03:03 PM)Habano Wrote:  

One scenario I haven't seen much discussion on the forum is the South China Sea. The place is an absolute powder keg with China building artificial islands for its military. The U.S. doesn't recognize China's claims in the region and continues to maintain a major presence there. With trade falling apart in China, the prospects of a Trump presidency, and continued U.S. aircraft flyovers of the artificial islands, it's ripe of escalation.

It is an interesting scenario. China is developing advanced fighter aircraft, likely using stolen aerospace technology, and conventional ballistic missiles to defeat US aircraft carrier groups. They've also silently developed their navy to the point where they can be a regional powerhouse. I believe their submarine force is one to be reckoned with. They've done a largely peaceful show of force a few years back. They maintain a large fleet of small, fast, stealthy missile boats whose effective capability is largely unknown.

They want Taiwan. Chinese history is replete with examples of a small group who eventually exerts disproportionate influence. Taiwan is an island of discontent, and they want to bring it into their fold. The US will defend it, but to what lengths is anyone's guess. China has a lot of resources at their disposal in that theater. I don't know how far they'll go. Taiwan isn't messing around, they just recently purchased a large volume of former US naval assets.

The Philippines is a historical US ally in the region. Subic Naval Base was the major naval base for the US throughout much of the latter part of the 20th century. I think the geopolitical actions of this country will be one of the most interesting ones. On one hand, they seem to be one of the loudest voices of protest regarding China's actions in the South China Sea. On the other, much of the upper class draws family connections to China (The Aquino family, for instance). From what I've heard from middle class Filipinos, former president Arroyo cut a deal with the Chinese to give them exploration rights in return for infrastructure development. My suspicion is that the Filipino upper class is willing to play ball with China, but they're also concerned about the public reaction of the masses of Filipinos to their designs. They will give off the appearance of displeasure, but behind closed doors, they'll be facilitating.

[NASA Test Pilot]

I propose that there are a few common threads between the conflicts in Ukraine and the conflict in Syria. Furthermore, these two conflicts are designed to be prototypes for other, and are being interwoven with other conflicts.

The first thread is Energy, the second is US Dollar hegemony, and the third is European movement toward the Russian (and Chinese) sphere(s) of influence, the fourth is the weakening of the NATO alliance, the fifth is counter-balancing the future application of US military power. There are others, but this is a handful. Of course, there are inter-relationships between these threads.

In regard to energy, Ukraine (other than being a major agricultural breadbasket for Asia) is geographical positioned to connect Russia and Europe. Many of the Russian pipelines transit through the Ukraine and eventual distribute oil and natural gas to a large percentage of European Countries. The United States would like to be the supplier of energy to Europe (in order to influence and control), but geography limits this and the liquid natural gas infrastructure is not fully developed. Russia is Europe's largest natural gas supplier, supplying about one-third of the continent's natural gas, more than half of which travels through Ukraine. Interestingly, the current leader of U.S. State Department's Bureau of Energy Resources is the former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine.

With the tension increasing between Russia, the EU, and the US concerning Gazprom´s leverage over European gas supplies, a Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Syria-Turkey-Bulgaria-EU pipeline was to be developed, but Syria refused to sign an agreement in order to help defend Russia´s (their ally) interest. Another energy stream was to be (will be) Iran-Iraq-Syria. Turkey unsuccessfully attempted to convince Syria not to support of the Iran-Iraq-Syria. After which the Syrian Civil War began. This plan was originally hatched (although it had been incubated long before) in the 2006-2008 time-frame and was to be directed from an embassy in Turkey. Enter ISIL (now ISIS) which consists of mostly Saudi assets (80%). What will unfold with Turkey and its president in 2016-2017 is paramount. If a temporary military transition from the current power structure in Turkey occurs and the development of a Kurdish state (Syrian/Iraqi/Turkish) begins, tensions will be greatly reduced.

As a side note, most of Gazprom´s banking was done through various institutions in Cyprus. The past banking issues with Cyprus were much larger than the public was lead to believe. It was and is about the access to oil and gas (energy streams) and the power and money that comes along with these resources.

[NASA Test Pilot]

To understand part of the current and forth coming conflict(s) with China it is important to understand some of the relational roots from the 1930´s. As the Japanese were invading mainland China in the 1930´s, various organizations, to include extra-ordinarily wealthy families (with hundreds of years of history) desired to move their wealth from the country. Without going into details here, deals were made with the United States and naval vessels were sent across the Pacific Ocean to retrieve this wealth and store it on numerous pacific island locations as well as on the US mainland. In exchange, the various Chinese entities were given uniquely identified US Treasury Bonds.

Some of these bonds have accidently received media (over the last 5-10 years) due to intermediaries crossing the Italian Border into Switzerland to begin a redemption process. This is significant because the inability to redeem these bonds (imagine a briefcase of bonds worth hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars from the 1930´s) has further escalated conflict related to the 1930´s deal. This conflict is being played more specifically in terms of points 2, 3 and 5 in my previous post. This notion has a parallel with Czarist wealth transfer to the west as the Russian Revolution was beginning in the early part of the 20th century. This common experience has been one of the bonds between China and Russia and the development of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO) and the sub-organizations that have sprung due to the collaboration between these two countries.

[NASA Test Pilot]

I will start the second point in regard to US Dollar hegemony in relation to China and tie it in with another thread that is developing:
thread-52959...pid1213438

Also tie this into the posts from thread:
thread-53166...pid1201257

Economic policy in China is driven by economic warfare and aligning leadership issues with the (Chinese) public interests. The leaders are more mercantilist. The market is used to increase apparent individual wealth and increase the middle class in order to minimize dissent. They are not concerned with democracy. China is using their surplus to make market reforms. In 2015 there was actually an increase of the trade surplus from $382 billion (2014) to $613 Billion. They do not need to devalue their currency.

Many do not know that China is made up of over 40 ethnic groups and a strong central government is needed to maintain order (much like in the middle-east) and Democracy will bring about civil war. I am not arguing for a Chinese style system, rather pointing out that their cultural history is being used as a weapon in modern warfare.

One of the largest problems, as it applies to the individual investors in the US and Western Europe (to include Hedge Funds), is that they are ignorant of the types of issues that I previously listed.

One can publically read/view pieces by Major-General Qiao Liang illustrating that the Chinese military understands and are telegraphing that financial power is replacing or is at the base of current military power. A financial war is won by undermining the currency of your enemy, not your own currency. Joining the IMF´s SDR was a large tactical win for the Chinese and the US knows it; the US was out played. Now that the Yuan will be included in the SDR that means that more loans through the creation of Chinese bonds denominated in Yuan (greater than the current number of zero) will be generated and less in US Dollars (in the form of US Treasuries). Now add to this that China will be adding contracts of Oil and Gold priced in Yuan and watch the lotus unfold.

[thoughtgypsy]

(02-06-2016 02:25 PM)NASA Test Pilot Wrote:  

Joining the IMF´s SDR was a large tactical win for the Chinese and the US knows it; the US was out played. Now that the Yuan will be included in the SDR that means that more loans through the creation of Chinese bonds denominated in Yuan (greater than the current number of zero) will be generated and less in US Dollars (in the form of US Treasuries). Now add to this that China will be adding contracts of Oil and Gold priced in Yuan and watch the lotus unfold.

The IMF's decision to include the Yuan surprised me. I was under that the US, being the largest funding source for the IMF and World Bank, exerted a controlling interest over their actions. Recent actions seem to point towards this.

When Dominique Strauss Kahn was heading the IMF, he began intimating that the world reserve currency should begin moving away from the dollar. Shortly thereafter his reputation was tarnished with a false rape accusation that was widely covered in the media. Once he recoiled back into the shadows and the much more pliable Lagarde won the position, the case was dropped. I found that morbidly fascinating. Apparently legitimate blackmail is no longer required to tarnish a reputation- false accusations will suffice.

There is also a striking pattern of countries whose politicians talk about selling energy in currencies other than the dollar being invaded, or regime change being initiated.

So what's in it for the IMF? Qui bono?

[NASA Test Pilot]

The term renminbi (RMB) is the name of the official currency of China. I translated it as the People´s Money, but someone more scholarly in Chinese may wish to chime in. The Yuan (literally round) is the basic unit of the renmimbi (and of former Chinese currencies), but is used to refer to the Chinese currency in general, it was historically a lump of silver. It is also sometimes colloquially called a kuai. The distinction is similar to the British Sterling and British Pound, or perhaps in a more colloquial fashion between the US Dollar and the Buck (slang for dollar). I mention this here as they can be used interchangeable and I will normally use Yuan because of its historic basis.

The Special drawing Right (SDR) is neither a currency, nor a claim on the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members. The value of the SDR was initially (1969) defined as equivalent to 0.888671 grams of fine gold. This was also equivalent to one U.S. dollar. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 (and the beginning of the Petro-dollar), the SDR was redefined as a basket of currencies which will be US Dollar 41.73, Euro 30.93, Yen, Pound, Yuan 10.92 Yen 8.33, Pound 8.09 on October 1, 2016 after the Yuan is officially included. Although highly unlikely, I do not preclude the possibility that the inclusion of the Yuan will be changed. Interestingly, the value of the SDR in terms of U.S. dollar is determined daily and posted on the IMF’s website that includes the US dollar, which is circular. It is calculated as the sum of specific amounts of each basket currency valued in U.S. dollars, on the basis of exchange rates quoted at noon each day in the London market. The basic function of (SDR) is to provide stability on the world global scene and thus it consists of stable economies (which are in essence based on their bond markets). The IMF has two general criteria (and other sub-criteria) for SDR inclusion; 1) Share in global exports; 2) Free usable economy. Both are equally ambiguous and lack objectivity as do most rules of other global organizations.

In regard as to why the Chinese Yuan was added to the IMF, the official answer from the IMF, whose creation is actually tied to the Exchange Stabilization fund (ESF), is that the inclusion of the Yuan “will bring about a more robust international monetary and financial system which in turn will support the growth and stability of China and the global economy.” Supposedly the Chinese are loosening control over their currency. Foreign entities (to include multi-national corporations) were only allowed to buy a fixed number of Chinese government bonds. They will say it is to open up the Chinese markets to the world, it would allow capital to flow into the Chinese markets as foreign entities invest in Chinese companies.

If the US dollar loses part of its status as the global reserve currency, then some of this privilege would accrue to China rather than the U.S. Borrowing costs, most importantly for the United States (U.S.) Government, would go up, and it would be more difficult for the US Treasury through the Federal Reserve to intervene to prop up the value of the currency in a sustained fashion (see my previous posts regarding the ESF). This would in turn weaken the ability of the U.S. to deficit spend and the sustainability of existing debt. The U.S. ability to enforce financial sanctions on foreign governments that it would like to control/influence would also decrease.

The U.S. was fighting for years to keep Yuan out of the SDR for reasons previously stated (in this post and the last), so why did they accept the loss? Like all good warriors, to prevent a greater loss and try to manage a tactical retreat, or as we said in my military days, to advance in another direction. One of the current modes of the advance in another direction is with off-shore Chinese Yuan centers as they are not restricted as they are in mainland China (on-shore centers). Financial products exist in the off-shore centers that are not available in on-shore centers and the (pegged) currency exchange rate is close to that of the on-shore rate. Such products include Yuan swaps (a type of derivative) and Yuan forwards (another type of derivative where you buy or sell a certain amount of currency in the future for the agreed price at the present), then imagine when you have forwards on swaps (derivatives based on derivatives). This is part of what came to a head in 2007-2008 in the U.S.

Here is an example of a currency swap. This can be done by at individual, or an institutional (bank, central bank, financial organization) level with varying restrictions. At the start of a swap, central bank 1 sells a specified amount of currency A to central bank 2 in exchange for currency B at the prevailing market exchange rate. Central bank 1 agrees to buy back its currency at the same exchange rate on a specified future date. Central bank 1 then uses the currency B it has obtained through the swap to lend on to local banks or corporations. On the specified future date that the swap unwinds and the funds are returned, central bank 1, which requested activation of the swap, pays interest to central bank 2. Permanent swap lines, like the ones in place today, promote huge currency mismatches. Banks will expect their central banks to provide them with foreign currency if market stresses make this funding difficult to obtain in private markets, and those who lend to foreign banks will continue to do so in the expectation that, in a crisis, they will be repaid with funds borrowed from the central bank. The existence of swaps therefore makes restraints on banks’ reliance on short-term funding, and requirements that foreign banks hold high quality, liquid, local currency assets.

These assets include the AAA bonds of the various countries that may be involved in the swaps or various high quality derivate instruments. I hope that the circularity is apparent in this moral hazard as almost all financial products (to include currencies) that most people in the world have are tied together by packaging and selling debt instruments to investors, pension funds and insurance companies.

The Chinese have been establishing Yuan/Renmimbi trading hubs around the world to facilitate trade amongst various countries and China. This has nothing to do with currency trading rather it is the SETTLEMENT OF TRADE. Country 1 gives Country 2, X good and/or services. Country 2 gives Country 1, Y goods and/or services. The net value difference X minus Y gives one nation a trade surplus and the other nation a trade deficit. The trade surplus/deficit was settled in the 18th, 19th and first part of the 20th century in gold and the nations actually shipped the difference in gold bars at the end of the year (relatively speaking) via ships. In general, this changed in the 20th century and the dollar was used as the mechanism for trade (as the dollar was tied to gold and considered as good as gold); however, gold continued to be shipped often between nations and in 1968 national leaders such as Charles De Gaulle of France actually demanded the gold in place of US Dollars; and the world began to change.

These Chinese Yuan hubs will not deal in US dollars (in general), rather they will begin by using Yuan and the currency of the trading nation (which could be the US dollarl). This will then change to another (gold-backed-trade) note and the center of gravity of world trade will shift even further. As this trade system shifts, world-wide financial and currency changes of significant magnitude will follow. One of the first Yuan trading hubs was in Brazil, there has been a monumental fight between the London banking center and Frankfurt to control trading between Europe and China (I expect Frankfurt to be the ultimate winner and this will influence threads 3 and 4 with Europe turning east to Russia and China as major trading partners and the diminishing of NATO will accelerate. One can observe the beginning of threads 3 and 4 in Syria with NATO countries (France and Germany to include logistics support from the British) supporting Russian forces against (Langley) ISIL(S). A Yuan trading hub does not exist in the U.S.; however, a Yuan center is currently being developed on the west coast (I believe in Los Angeles). My understanding is that major Yuan trading hubs already exist in 33 countries and smaller exchanges exist in an additional 95 countries. The idea is to facilitate trade, not provide loans.

In Germany you have two major threads of power, one is industrial (old money) the other is political (new money) and there is friction between the two; in China you have a (more complex) dichotomy of power with less friction. We shall call it old (ancient) money (which influences political power) and new money (tied to current political power in general).

When you ask Qui Bono for the IMF, part of the answer is hidden. On the outer stage, for the IMF, another member is added to share the burden of international liquidity shortages; for the Chinese the cost of borrowing will be less (yet their debt is internal, not external like the US which has about 50% external debt). Chinese investors will perceive that the risk is decreased as more international bonds will be denominated in Yuan, the currency will be perceived as stronger and therefore the probability of dissent is decreased in the eyes of the central government.

On the new money side there are other deals being made with IMF related puppet string masters on issues such as digital currency, banking transparency, identity cards, data sharing, imposition of world-wide financial transaction tax to fund the IMF, and others. On the less than hidden side, China will continue to purchase some US treasury bonds while quietly selling/trading other US Treasuries at discrete windows and these bond sales will be further disguised by the US Treasury department, particularly by the ESF. Furthermore, China will continue to be given access to purchase and transport (to China) more western held gold. When that access and transfer ceases the center of gravity will change. Speculation; on the Ancient money side there is an allowance being made to allow these institutions to continue in their current form while concessions are made by world organizations and institutions that minimize generational losses that include, but are not limited to monetary (including gold) instruments. This last part is purposefully vague.

Yes, there is a striking pattern of countries whose politicians talk about or act on selling energy in currencies other than the dollar being invaded, or regime change being initiated. This is not by accident as it challenges the foundation of the US dominated petro-dollar system and hence US power. All five points I initially proposed are related. We are developing points 1 and 2 now (with a tie to threads 3 and 4). Some of the interconnections should become apparent. There are now over 30 countries that are trading oil and/or natural gas in a currency other than the US dollar; very often it is bi-lateral between the currencies of the trading nations. This week, China and Russia have begun another phase of their eventual $400 billion (notice how the dollar is used as the reference) deal of energy for Yuan/Ruble. Watch for Iran to ask for oil in Euros and then Saudi Arabia to begin to accept multiple currencies including the US Dollars. These will be pivotal events. China has created and is using its own rating agency and an alternative to the Swift financial transaction system (they have credit card transactions that are almost as great as that of both VISA and MasterCard combined) while Russia has also developed (but not using) an alternative to the Swift system.

If there is a petro-dollar system in place in the world, then it does not follow that the price of oil would be going down while the value of the dollar is increasing (on the USDX). If oil is going down in US dollar price, then the value of the dollar should be declining. Yet given that the value of the dollar is increasing and the price of oil is declining when the world-wide demand for oil has increased over the years, production is at a relative (world-wide) high, the amount of oil in surplus is a very small (usually 1-2%) and the amount of alternative energy supplies, although having increased, is small as a percentage. Something is amiss. As I mentioned on my previous bond post on why is the value of the dollar so high thread, the narrative does not match the facts. The ability to do a proper analysis is not possible because we are being lied to. Therefore, one must look to other elements that are not presented to the masses, but footprints of their existence can be seen. Or perhaps there is no petro-dollar system.

Three ancient empires are on the rise, the Chinese, the Russian, and the Persian. They are working together to combat dollar hegemony and have formed a Eurasian Trade Zone that is using energy as the primary lever.

As an initial tie to an eventual thread 5, I suggest that these types of scenarios have been war gammed over the years using super-computers.

[Thoroughbred]

This is old, but may provide some background, and entertainment, to the above.

[sylo]

NASA Test Pilot,

I resent your editing. Very fascinating stuff. Do you have any more info or links regarding the massive xfer of wealth and where/which islands were involved? Thank you for your knowledge, nasty test pilot

[NASA Test Pilot]

After talking about debtor nations shipping their gold at the end of the year to the creditor nation in order to resolve their trade deficit, I began to think about shipping in the world today, which led me to think about the Baltic Dry Index. I was pondering the record low and wondering why this is so from a macro level and a thought occurred. Is part of the issue that the shipping companies and/or the owners of the goods who are using the ships asking for something other than US dollars in payment for their services and goods in a manner that is similar to what is being done in energy and this is part of the reason why ships are not moving goods? If so, this would be another indication of combating US dollar hegemony. Knowing what countries own the ships and/or are renting the ships, as well as the origin country of the finished goods waiting on those ships would give a further indication of who is openly opposing and combating US dollar hegemony. I would then look for these countries to be on the receiving edge of (further) (para) military force.

[sylo]

Would illegal drugs factor into this somehow? I know it is not unheard of for shipping companies smuggling illicit products to pay with product, instead of cash. What about bitcoin? Are any of these related? There is a much more eloquent way of wording the questions in my mind right now, but I am at a loss.

[NASA Test Pilot]

As a general response to sylo, these are separate but related issues. There is an around about way they connect to all 5 threads to which I alluded in post #4. Allow me to first recommend a point of reference for you to dig into. Look at the U.S. Gold Act of 1934. The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) actually sprung from this and about $2.3 Billion (based in 1934 gold dollars) that was the excess from President Franklin D. Roosevelt´s Executive Order (and the eventual legal changes made in the law by the US Congress) to call in all of the U.S. citizens physical gold (which was considered illegal to own until the mid-1980´s when the laws were changed so that US citizens could legally own gold once again). This confiscated gold was revalued from $20.67 to $35.00, which was a devaluation of the dollar buy another name.

With regard to the massive wealth from China in the 1930´s, yes there was a transfer that occurred and few sources of official documents that could be found was concerning the movement of a modest number of U.S. naval destroyers, and certain engineering connections related to storage of the cargo on the destroyers. Afterwards, if you scrape very hard you may be able to find certain references in regard to 777 (triple seven) or Golden Lily sites. The Philippine Islands is the place to begin.

In regard to some of the other PM´s. There was a 193X series of special US bond instruments that were given (through intermediaries) to some of the old (ancient) money in China in the 1930´s who conducted a test in 2010-2011 by a related (to the first) group of intermediaries from Italy to Switzerland in order to redeem (unsuccessfully) a small portion (around $134 billion in 1934 gold based dollars). I do not want to go out on a limb here as things get very dark, very quick and do not serve the interest of the forum or individuals other than to cause them to mentally follow a rat-hole that will eventually cease before the edge of a cliff, only to find that they could have used their energy more productively elsewhere. You may also be able to find Japanese naval records of Japanese ships being purposefully scuttled in the Bay of Tokyo (with cargo). You may choose to explore the depths of the radiation levels of Tokyo Bay and the unlikely possibility of any types of salvage operation. An interesting thought experiment would be to consider the useful condition of objects resting in containers currently residing in this location, practically speaking. Consider the idea that irradiating part of the Pacific Ocean as strategic move (not by any national military force).

Yes Narco-money is a large piece of the US dollar hegemony, but that is an area which must be treaded carefully. In a very simplistic example, look at the amount of heroin on the streets of the US, or a specific city (New York), was in 2000. What percentage came from Afghanistan (7%), and what was the production from Afghanistan at that time (records are difficult but it was about 113-4 tons). Now compare those same two variables in 2015. The answers are approximately 70% and 1300+ tons). The value is on the order of 800 Billion to 1 Trillion per year. This money is not on any official (group of) ledger(s). You might think that the major cargo moving through NATO air bases world-wide is men and machinery. There is no customs clearance at US (or foreign) military bases.

[NASA Test Pilot]

This is would be more in alignment with thread 5 on post #4.

Watch for what US military presence in Syria actually turns out to be in regards to fighting alongside of Saudi Arabia and possibly Turkish forces. It will probably be former special forces soldiers grouped together under one or two of the independent mercenary contractors. Most of the Pentagon Generals and Admirals do not want to send (formal Pentagon) US Military forces to fight other US (non-pentagon) forces (ISIS). Having said that, if you look closely over the past 10 years at the number off general officers that are have prematurely retired or have been involved in scandals, you will notice a disturbing trend that has occurred a number of other times in history when a nation was in decline.

China will counterbalance (possible with Iranian forces and select Chinese units) in Yemen to discourage Saudi Arabia should Saudi Arabia engage.

Pay particular attention to what specifically happens in Turkey and with their military forces. This is one of the centers of gravity and how it shifts will directly influence the expansion of this developing world war. It is my contention the Erdogan has been bribed with billions (3) of dollars of drug and oil money and he will be stepping (forced) down and there will be a brief (Turkish) military transition government in the 2017 (maybe 2018) time frame. What fills the vacuum will be interesting. I am more inclined to think that the center will shift toward the formation of a Kurdish state (with parts of Syria, Trukey and Iraq) and the tensions will ease (relatively). But then again, I do not under-estimate the sociopaths to stir up the hornet´s nest and Erdogan may re-appear if he does leave.

Someone asked me about the relationship of the Ukraine to the US dollar other than energy. I will offer a brief notion. In 2014, 114 countries of the world (including the United States) agreed, and were signatories of an agreement, that would re-value the currencies of the world (in relation to gold) in order to avoid some of the economic unpleasantness that is (coming) upon us. The U.S. rescinded and launched into the Ukraine in order to defend US dollar hegemony. It was on the soft side (billions in support) at first, then with soft forces followed by more hardened assets. Also shortly after major fighting began in Kiev, all 33 tons of their national gold was physically airlifted (under heavy guard) to western Europe..for safety. We shall see what history records.

[NASA Test Pilot]

Saudi Arabia completed it´s shift to Beijing (and Moscow) early in 2015, just as Germany (first industrial and then political) is in the process of shifting to Moscow and the Eurasian Trade Zone now. Saudi Arabia (SA) will become a protectorate of China (and perhaps Moscow) much like they were of the US for the past 50 years. You will see significant expansions in the Chinese naval and space forces over the next 25 years that will facilitate protectorate roles in Africa (particularly Central African mining), South African (refining) and east Africa (strategic location), across the Red Sea to Yemen and eventually Saudi Arabia (thus containing NATO in the Mediterranean). The line will continue across to Iran and eventually to India and around South East Asia, to man-made islands in the South China Sea and to Taiwan, the political (face) prize. The US and NATO forces will attempt to weakly maintain a balance with its influence in (East Africa (to include Egypt), India) Diego Garcia, (perhaps) Australia, the Philippines, Japan and South Korea. Japan and South Korea will be the (difficult) push after South East Asia for the Chinese. The US will allow Japan to re-arm more completely as the Chinese exert more influence in Africa, the Middle East, India and South East Asia. I am unsure of Australia, but seeing that they are currently changing many national laws to make it more difficult (to include illegal) for foreigners to own property indicates that they will become more non-interventionist (perhaps partially isolationists) and will focus more on trade relations with the rest of the world (watch what happens with the Trans-Pacific-Partnership (TPP), the SCO and Yuan swap facilities as they relate to Australia and New Zealand); much as the U.S. had done in the early part of the 19th century. I think that this is being influenced more by China, but Australia wants to give the pro-west appearance by allowing NATO (particularly the US) to increase the modest number of troops (especially US Marines) located on the continent.

There are numerous activities intra-Asia, but I wanted firstly generally overview coastal geography as it relates to NATO vs. Eurasia from the Middle East to the Asian Rim of the Pacific Ocean.

I will be very interested to see what happens with Singapore and the Malacca Straits. I am leaning to the side that they will continue to give a more neutral appearance like Hong-Kong while growing under the Chinese Sphere of influence.

China will not have the global naval capability of the US for another 25 (and more probably 50) years, that is why they will focus on hypersonic anti-ship missile technologies (the Russian SS-N-26 is not new and being currently developed, it has been operational for a long period of time and this is strategically known by many general officers (US Generals and Admirals), increases in strategic submarines and their related technologies (that provide both MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) and potential first strike capabilities) as well as greater influence in space, that will be firstly seen as Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) oriented defense capabilities. This last sphere is mostly ignored in most geo-political analysis as public information is limited in understanding the U.S. dominance in this arena.

Part of the Chinese strategy is an based on an extension of the post WWII Soviet strategy that seeks to allow the US to develop and spend huge amounts of capital in the offensive arena while the Chinese focus on the more economical defensive strategy in order to neutralized the US advantage while an attempts are made to surreptitiously obtain the newly developed technology. This is done in concert with the economic warfare in order to collapse the US and NATO from within. I will briefly mention that the Chinese have been leading the world in Nano-technology research as they have been pushing the envelope here for over 15 of the last 30 years and this will is involved in their attempt to counter-balance the US super-computing and NATO material science advantages.

Returning to the Middle East, I will put forth that the Saudi´s are allowing the west to believe that they will be maneuvered like Iraq in 1990. The battle in SA is for the royal family to remain in power and stay relevant in energy. The Gwar oil field has gone from pumping 95% water to 98% water in a short period and its reduced production levels will soon indicate their impotence unless than can expand oil fields in more Shia controlled areas of SA or other oil rich areas in Yemen (under Chinese guidance, if the Chinese can keep Iran at bay; which I doubt). Furthermore, they are attempting to become a world leader in solar power, which has been a strategic project underway for a number of years. This, in turn, ties with advances in Chinese technologies.

Note, Iran is now selling their oil in Euros!!! Now watch for Saudi Arabia to accept payment for crude oil other currencies in addition to (but not not exclusive of) U.S. dollars as I mentioned previously. I would expect this to happen after the Turkey-Iraq-Saudi Arabia-Syria regional conflict scenario (with the larger, but parallel NATO-EurAsia senario) is more flushed out in 2016-2017. The outcome of this regional scenario will then influence the Iran-Iraq(I-I) scenario as well as the Saudi Arabia-Gulf states(S-G) scenario. There will also be another larger scenario based on the outcome of the (I-I) and (S-G) scenarios. The outcome of this larger Middle East (ME) scenario will interact with the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) scenario with Syria. The ME-EM scenario will connect into the Eastern European (EE) scenario with Ukraine which will connect with the Western European (WE) scenario and Eastern Asia (EA or Russian) scenario. The ME-EM scenario with also connect with Southern Asia (SE or Indian) scenario). The SE scenario will connect with a Central Asia (CA) scenario. The SE and CA scenarios will be closely tied with the EA (Russian) scenario which is inherently tied to the Western Asia (WA or Chinese) scenario via the Shanghai Cooperative Agreement (SCO) and Chinese-Russian military cooperation. The EA-WA scenarios are tied to the Pacific Rim (PM) scenario with Korea, Japan, the US (firstly via the Philippines and then via Guam). This is just at the macro level, there are scenarios within the scenarios, but that level detail is beyond the scope here, but specific points will be made from time to time. There is also a Western Pacific (WP) – Eastern Pacific (EP) – Southern Pacific (SP) scenarios which are tied into North American (NA) – Central American (CA) – South American (SA) scenarios which in turn are tied to North Atlantic (NA) – Western European (WA) – North Africa (NAf) scenarios which are tied to Central Africa (CAf) – West African (WAf) - South Africa (Saf) scenarios. This is a linear overview, but it is actually a spherical lattice structure to include Polar elements (Artic (AR) – Antarctic (AA) ).

For future purposes this will be overlaid with a modern cultural map that will look something like: Western Industrial, Slavic Orthodox, Latin America, South and East Asia, Arabic-Turkic-Islamic, Africa; Special Cases that do not fit. These special cases as well as connecting geography where cultures mix will become points of ignition in a global conflict. The special cases which are the critical points include: Eastern Mediterranean Sea between Turkey and Egypt; Western Ukraine-Eastern Slovakia, Guyana-Suriname-French Guiana; Papua New Guinea, Belize. This modern cultural map, in turn, will need to be compared and contrasted with older cultural maps (which will be challenging).

As a general economic warfare note, the Chinese (and Eurssian Trade Zone) are playing a game of chicken with the West in regard to banking. The Eurasian Trade Zone (ETZ) is pushing back on the West. They believe that they will lose less in a systemic meltdown and that they will be able to recover quicker. This is not their first choice, but after the West (particularly US) decision not to reset the currencies, they view this as a the more optimal strategy.

[Going strong]

(02-10-2016 05:03 AM)NASA Test Pilot Wrote:  

Pay particular attention to what specifically happens in Turkey and with their military forces. This is one of the centers of gravity and how it shifts will directly influence the expansion of this developing world war. It is my contention the Erdogan has been bribed with billions (3) of dollars of drug and oil money and he will be stepping (forced) down and there will be a brief (Turkish) military transition government in the 2017 (maybe 2018) time frame. What fills the vacuum will be interesting. I am more inclined to think that the center will shift toward the formation of a Kurdish state (with parts of Syria, Trukey and Iraq) and the tensions will ease (relatively). But then again, I do not under-estimate the sociopaths to stir up the hornet´s nest and Erdogan may re-appear if he does leave.

Unfortunately Erdogan is not going anywhere... he basks in money (having blackmailed the EU into giving him billions of euros, basically with no limit to his credit). Some of this money he does invest in infrastructures in Turkey, thus pleasing his people.

Even more pleasing to his people, is the monstrous fact that he will obtain in October this year visa-free travel to Europe: Erdogan then becomes the ultimate god-hero of 20 millions Turkish rape-fantasying virgin men...

Last but not least, Erdogan has been castrating the Turkish army for years and years through massive detentions and rigged trials for supposed "coup attempts"...

So, I don't see Erdogan deposed by the secular Turkish army anytime soon, alas. Erdogan one day soon will see Europe burned and destroyed, and triumph and praise his God (until his own country in turn is destroyed by African immigration, but he probably can't see that far in the future. If he could he would help Europe blockade Africa, but his hatred for European men blinds him: he'll ultimately drag both Europe and Turkey to ruin and misery).

[Going strong]

"Note, Iran is now selling their oil in Euros!"

which explains the strange and sudden rebound of the Euro (versus USD), from 1,08 to 1,13 since this Iranian decision.

[NASA Test Pilot]

We shall watch and see if he is not out before the end of 2017. I am not saying that the payoff came from NATO, but rather The Eurasian Trade Zone (with the drug money siphoned from cabal interdictions). Turkey was the go between when Iran was sanctioned with their oil. Turkey acted as the middle man with Indian Gold for Iranian oil to go around sanctions and the SWIFT system. Turkey has held this type of position historically. If the payoff came from the ETZ (which I contend), he will not attack Syria and will be working alongside of Russia (unless he changes for another reason, Turkey has been historically fickle). If he attacks Syria then I am incorrect or something else happened of which I am unaware and was unable to account for before the fact (and still incorrect).

I am implying that Erdogan will keep the money for himself personally and fade away. The castration of generals, which I concur with, if sufficient (which I doubt) maybe his insurance policy so he is not forced out and he can leave on his terms. It is exactly because of his hatred for Europe that he sided with the ETZ in the previous Iranian oil deal and why he was happy to accept the payoff. If he does, in fact have a god complex the only thing I see detracting from his deification is the creation of a Kurdish state while he is in power. If it happens after he leaves power (which is my contention), the military or the new powers will accept the fault. The military accepting the fault will weaken their position which would also be to his advantage for a potential return to power.

[Going strong]

Erdogan would start WW3 before allowing a Kurdish State to be created under his watch... actually, and whatever happens with the Kurds, Erdogan probably remains the most dangerous politician currently in power. He is at the center of many connected storms (some of which he initiated).

[Going strong]

(02-12-2016 09:19 AM)Going strong Wrote:  

Erdogan would start WW3 before allowing a Kurdish State to be created under his watch... actually, and whatever happens with the Kurds, Erdogan probably remains the most dangerous politician currently in power. He is at the center of many connected storms (some of which he initiated).

Throwing away all modesty and if I am the one to say it, I might stress that, what I predicted about Erdogan being more than willing to start WW3 out of his hatred of Kurds, materialized just 48 hours after my prediction.
His army is currently shelling the Kurds in Syria...

[NASA Test Pilot]

I made the following post here as well:
thread-53767.html

When we study Geo-politics in more depth, we must go well beyond the nation-state concept of modern times (pre-1648 and the Treaty of Westphalia) and examine deeper cultural, ethic, and language bonds between tribes.

Russia and China do not WWIII (but that does not mean they will not get it), they want to expand and control via the trade route (to include the old silk road and heavy rail between western Europe and Asia. They will work toward a Eurasian Trade Zone (ETZ) in which they will be the major players in order to (in part) counter US hegemony. Most of their strategic actions are to diffuse this growing WWIII scenario. I have proposed before that Turkey is the center of gravity.

While it is true that the Chinese see themselves as the center of the world, they practical understand that they need to internally manage 42 ethnic groups and these ethnic groups have cultural ties to other geographic areas of the world. These other cultural ties can be used as mechanisms of exploitation in the future to erode Chinese central power. In a similar vein, Putin has restructured state institutions in Russia to limit any possibility for using ethnicity to challenge Moscow’s political power. The proliferation of democracy in both countries will have destabilizing effects and is being used as a weapon (I am not arguing the (lack of) merits regarding democracy with this statement).

Putin (who graduated from the law department of Leningrad University (where he was later a professor) and was a KGB officer assigned in East Germany with frequent travels to West Germany) desires a supremacy of federal laws over the legislation of federal ‘subjects’, and the need for a unified legal and fiscal policy. He will use migrant flows to their advantage when possible (just like he will use democratic principles to his advantage when necessary), but the Russian history of dealing with 7 major ethnic groups that can be sub-divided into 185 sub-groups that supposedly inspired the creation of a Russian Federation, which is technically not a nation-state, but a multi-national state; has given him a broader base than most European leaders in understanding some of the intricate nuances.

The migrant flow to Europe will detract from Russia´s longer term goals of deepening trade relations with Europe and turning Europe east for the long term. I suggest thinking industrially as well as politically. German power has two prongs, one industrial (to include energy) and the other political. The Industrial side has been deepening relations with Russia over the past 15+ years and they currently have 4,000+ companies doing business with Russia, while Russia has been working diligently for the past 10-15 years to reform their legal (contractual) system in preparation for greater ties with Western Europe.

Ethnic Russians are some 80% of the (wide-spread) population. The development of a policy of assertive ethnic Russian nationalism would antagonize the non-Russian groups (like Ukraine). The Soviet Republic that preceded the Russian Federation was more of an ethnic feudal system (with certain ethnic rights in their home territories) combined with political and economic centralization. This is why Putin put forth a clear policy regarding the reassertion of state power after Boris Yeltsin´s democratic reforms. Yeltsin (I contend purposely under western guidance) did not articulate a Russian ethnic policy.

Putin attempted to revived a symbolic repertoire in order to organize a Russian national identity, using features from the Tsarist past (for example, new uniforms for the Kremlin guard and regular visits to Orthodox churches) while reviving some Soviet symbols (such as restoring the Soviet anthem, with new words). He was/is moving toward the development of an Empire-State where the identities of the leaders are rooted in their capacity to rule over a multiplicity of (ethnic) peoples across the Eurasian land mass.

I am of the opinion that Russia under Putin desires to give the formal Tsarist Royal family members a special status and stimulate their return to Russia as a practical means, to be symbols of national culture in order to revive a more nationalist power of people; that he can harness in order to solidify his own power. As to whether he or this notion has ties to a globalist perspective (note that many of the 20th century Soviet leaders were of Ashkenazi background) is another topic of discussion.

Understanding these types of details become important in discussing some of the geo-political machinations that are occurring under the public framing.

As a more practical transition, consider that OPEC may indeed fracture, but a new Russian-Gulf oil cartel will rise.

[NASA Test Pilot]

Editorial note - If I mention something to the effect of ¨look for this (to happen).¨ I am not implying that it is a fait accompli or done deal, rather it is a probabilistic forecast based on what has been stated, personal experiences as well as available information (which is sometimes public and other times it is not).

[NASA Test Pilot]

Turkey and Saudi Arabia (SA) have been influenced by the real Middle East power broker to believe that they can counter-balance Iran by getting involved in Syria. This will be a double cross so that Turkey and especially Saudi Arabia take heavy losses and thus become weakened militarily. The real escalation danger (and goading Russia into the larger world conflict scenario) is Russia using tactical ´weapons´ to turn the northern part of Saudi Arabia into a glass field….and thereby helping them forward with their solar power initiative. It is not as if Ukraine has no tactical radiology issues. This will not be Russia´s first choice, but I believe they have a serious red line. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese try to massage the bear so that he roars with less force considering that SA will be reversing part of their turn to the ETZ. When it comes to large strategic religious matters, the Saudi buttons are more easily pushed.

[DVY]

How does a strong dollar factor into this conspiracy?

[NASA Test Pilot]

Dollar hegemony is the second of five points that I began to use as an initial outline. In a previous post I mention to check into these posts and more importantly these threads to see the connections.

thread-53166...pid1201257

thread-52959...pid1213438

When one uses the term conspiracy one suffers a tactical loss as the word infers that the ´official´ or ´normal´ position is the correct one, and anything other than that is to be taken subordinately and therefore has less credibility. There is a parallel by using the term ´warriors´ in the same phrase as social justice (warriors). The word provides credibility and strength to a concept that is inherently weak. There is a science behind this.