[Orson]

Simple question, obvious answer - difficult decision tree? Will the Grexit and a subsequent sale on Greece affect your travel plans?

Now, to follow the game of Grexit - the Referendum was a BIG "NO!" (61% rejecting the plan what was already off the table....Confusing, I know.)



CNBC put up this smart decision tree. We are entering the middle of it right now: "New Negotiations."



Assuming Greece exits the Euro (RIGHT BOTTOM of chart), Greece will be starved of recognized official currency - cash that can be traded internationally. Therefore, goods and services in Greece will become significantly cheaper for a time - months at least and possibly for years.

If the Greek economy has been hit by about a one-quarter decline five years ago and since, another swifter decline of very roughly the same proportions is anticipated. (But there are no TRUE equivalents of the coming Grexit - this is a new event with an old history, ie, national bankruptcy leading to a new currency.)

Obviously, many places are more vulnerable to this crash than others. Places for summer and fall vacations like the Greek Islands may be more insulated from the bottoms of the economic decline than the bigger cities, places with more vulnerable and dependent people, for example.

Still, there MUST be bargains! Planning accordingly will be of great mutual benefit - for you and the places you go and patronize. Services, including unreliable travel, are likely to be limited. Some may be...primitive (eg, electrical power, food, even water in places).

How much must Greece's prices fall to interest you in travel there? (By all means, bring HARD cash - don't plan on ATMs or any type of credit to be available. Word is, bitcoin is being back-channel lifeline for companies trying to keep internet services going, for instance.)

Surely, this bit of history will interest the more adventurous among us - such as those intrigued by travel to Venezuela right now. As the (fictional) 'Chinese curse' goes, "May you live in interesting times." We certainly do.

LET'S DISCUSS!

PS - Economic history will sharpen our expectations and facilitate travel planning.

[Orson]

HERE is a nice, brief timeline on the Argentine default, some 15 years ago, by the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/bus...eline.html

From Rabobank, that historic event in Argentina, 2001-2 is given the multi-page economics account, concluding with this:

Quote:

The Argentine economic crisis was caused by the undesirable confluence of several economic events: ...large scale foreign currency borrowing followed by a sudden stop in capital inflows and enduring IMF support played an important role in the course of the crisis. This, together with the political and social turmoil that accompanied the events, made the Argentine crisis one of the most severe emerging market crises in history.

As world economic growth in the early 2000s was strong and Argentine producers benefitted from the strong depreciation of the currency, the Argentine economy was able to recover rather quickly. Profound reforms were therefore not implemented.

https://economics.rabobank.com/publicati...20012002-/

[Orson]

USEFUL BRIEF BACKGROUND from Factmonster.com:

Quote:

http://www.factmonster.com/country/argentina.html

Recession and Economic Instability

In Dec. 1999, Fernando de la Rua became president. Despite the introduction of several tough economic austerity plans, by 2001 the recession had slid into its third year. The IMF gave Argentina $13.7 billion in emergency aid in Jan. 2001 and $8 billion in Aug. 2001. The international help was not enough, however, and by the end of 2001, Argentina was on the verge of economic collapse. Rioters protesting government austerity measures forced De la Rua to resign in Dec. 2001. Argentina then defaulted on its $155 billion foreign debt payments, the largest such default in history.

After more instability, Congress named Eduardo Duhalde president on Jan. 1, 2002. Duhalde soon announced an economic plan devaluing the Argentine peso, which had been pegged to the dollar for a decade. The devaluation plunged the banking industry into crisis and wiped out much of the savings of the middle class, plunging millions of Argentinians into poverty.

Sounds a great deal like Greece today, doesn't it?

[zatara]

Most analysis I've read predicts any new Drachma almost instantly devaluing by 50-75%, if its introduced. Greece isn't particularly expensive to begin with, so this would make it a fantastic bargain.

My only two concerns are 1) flights going up in price as people try to seize on the bargains and 2) it not happening before the summer season is finished. No point in going to Greece in November...

[Simeon_Strangelight]

http://www.rooshvforum.network/thread-48479.html

There is already a big Greece crisis thread.

[averagebritguy]

I don't think you can predict whats going to happen in Greece...this has been going on for months already, with everyone speculating this that and the other. This vote was a completely pointless political decoy - 62% voted No against an offer that wasn't even possible, it's just a show of strength by the current government - are these the same 62% that have removed billions of euros from their bank accounts (Which peaked at a billion a day, till they restricted the amount that could be withdrawn...), it sure sounds like they trust their bankers and politicians...I think their government is just angling for something akin to the London agreement where half the debt was written off for post war Germany and they only had to pay it back when they could afford to...as they keep bringing it up (which is fairly ridiculous as this isn't similar at all, and Greece were only one of 20 countries that made the decision)

At the end of the day, the European central bank (and Merkel unfortunately, not their government, nor any government) most likely has to decide to either cut it's losses, let Greece stay in the eurozone as a weak member state...or pay another 30 billion or so to let Greece go it alone with it's own currency. Either way Greece is fucked for a long time, Portugal and Ireland will be super pissed off, and every person that lives in the eurozone loses a few quid.

Personally, it'd be a long while before I decided to spend any length of time there, its impossible to predict what's going to happen, from possible service/amenities/transport problems, to businesses closing, imported food & goods shortages and random price fluctuations. Unless your really struggling for $$ there's lots of other places to go in Europe that are already cheap (lots of places in EE)...and are a lot more stable and have a similar climate, I don't know what you'd gain unless Greece is an poosy paradise that i've not heard about?

[djk100]

I would like to rent a badass villa in Santorini

[TripleG]

The most important question is how will this affect gaming opportunities in Greece? Will we see a desperation of the local beauties wanting to leave Greece for greener pastures in Western Europe or even USA. Would any "white God factor" be possible?
Will one be able to pull off the GManifesto style in the more affluent cafes/bars and just swoop?

[chyamor]

[Orson]

AND THE VERDICT...IS? No "Grexit" - again!

Thank you players like TripleG, djk100, and chymor.


After the usual (opaque) intrigues the Euro-zone's "Eurogroup" is notorious, it appears there will be a THIRD bailout with "reforms" of Greece. (HA! Sure....)

And therefore the only "SALE" we'll see will be a brief period of recovery from the two or three week-long "Bank Holiday." (If that.)

REALISTS (and people like us, I'll aver) are disappointed. But perhaps a nice whirlwind to Greece can be rewarded with some bargains before the old "back to business" (overpriced) regime resumes business....Or else one can simply wait for fall! September is always cheaper.

[_Cicero]

Yes, unfortunately, Tsipras isn't actually man enough to get Greece out of the Euro. Sad. I predict more misery in Greece until they leave... What's Golden Dawn up to these days?

I was hoping to visit Greece on the cheap... Now it looks like the Germans will force increases in hotel taxes. Lame.

[Sourcecode]

Can we let Kamaki back on the forum?
I would love to know what he says about this situation.

I assume he is probably still somewhere in Germany though.

Also, this thread could use pictures of Greek women and islands.