[Chewbacon]

Hey guys,

[edit] My worry is that some time in the next 10 years the U.S. economy will completely crumble. Our assets will completely depreciate in the wake of massive inflation and a worthless dollar, or our money will be taken away by crippling taxes. Of course, this could be/probably is just hyperbole. I have a minor in economics, so I have only a limited understanding of economics. Maybe those with expertise in finance, business, and economics on this forum can weigh in with their thoughts on the future state of the U.S. economy, and if it's a good idea to have a contingency plan that focuses on JD portability.

[hydrogonian]

Quote:

Maybe those with expertise in finance, business, and economics on this forum can weigh in with their thoughts on the future state of the U.S. economy, and if it's a good idea to have a contingency plan that focuses on JD portability.

First, I'm not an expert in finance, business, or economics.

But I can offer two things.

First, learn to ignore economic doomsday propaganda, as its been around as long as human civilization. I'm not saying that economies don't go through very rough cycles, but in general, all ships rise and sink with the tide. That is, the nature of economics basically means that prices adjust according to economic reality, especially the reality of the North American countries. Whatever happens here effects everyone else in the world to a great extent, and so the world as a whole has a vested interest in keeping North America on its feet. If everything ever gets so bad that there is anarchy here, no profession or contingency plan in the world, other than a bunker in the mountains, will save you. So, just go about your plan and don't worry too much about it. Living stress free requires some sense of fatalism.That being said, choosing a portable profession is a smart idea.

Second, I have to question your judgment, considering your economic perspective, in picking law as a profession. The primary reason is because your perspective of a Canadian JD's portability is completely false (even if its technically true), as far as I know, and the law profession itself in good times is a rough one. It hasn't been good times in the legal profession for many years now, and this is common knowledge.

In the USA, there are generally two types of marketable law degrees. The first type is a law degree from a T14 school. These degrees can be good for acquiring a job in most areas of the USA. The second type of viable degree is that from a local university in the area which you wish to work. Its very difficult to secure employment, generally, if you attended a non-T14 school outside of the area in which you wish to work. If that school was in Canada, I don't see how that would be a marketable degree at all.

Have you researched the legal profession thoroughly? Are you sure that you know what your getting into, and what the reality of the market is? Have you talked to several attorneys, preferably those who are 3-10 years out of law school?

Personally, I see law school as an extremely bad gamble these days. But maybe you have a connection or some knowledge that I do not. good luck.

[Moma]

Hydro, do you know any lawyers? I know quite a few here in Canada, and they all make good money. Corporate law is supposed to be where the big bucks lie. One of my friends makes 40,000K per annum. That's dollars, baby!

No, kidding aside, my friend makes six figures deep and hasn't hit 40 years yet. She also started her degree late (after she had her kids), around 28-30 years so if she started when Shanbang started, she would have been clocking those figures probably by early 30's.

So I don't know if it is a dying trade but it's good to actually speak to lawyers before speculating on what one sees a few schmucks doing...

[hydrogonian]

(04-19-2011 02:02 PM)Moma Wrote:  

Hydro, do you know any lawyers? I know quite a few here in Canada, and they all make good money. Corporate law is supposed to be where the big bucks lie.

So I don't know if it is a dying trade but it's good to actually speak to lawyers before speculating on what one sees a few schmucks doing...

I know a lot of lawyers, quite personally. Including my best friend of 18 years, many classmates, many friends of friends, associates of friends, and a couple of relatives. About half of of these people went to Ivy League Schools, as I went to high school with a lot of rich smart kids. They work the gamut including medium sized firms, insurance companies, large prestigious firms, and for the federal government.

My comment doesn't come from place of speculation. Why would you assume that I would make a comment without knowing lawyers intimately, or what I was talking about? Perhaps you should ask me before you suggest that "its good to talk to a few lawyers before speculating".

I could counter with the comment that you should take your own advice and speak to a lot of lawyers before you speculate based on what a few "schmucks" are doing. The attorney "schmucks" that I know are exceptionally smart and academically accomplished people, for the most part.

Also, my comments are obviously geared toward the USA. If you have a perspective on Canada, then that pertains to Canada. Its almost irrelevant to the USA. Especially in such an old boys club as the legal field.

Also, a comment like "Corporate law is supposed to be where the big bucks lie" is highly incomplete so as to be misleading, at least to someone who wants to work in the USA. Again, I can't comment on Canada.

First, you need to get that corporate law job. That isn't a decision that someone can just make anymore. If it were a matter of just deciding to get with a firm that practices corporate law, then I wouldn't consider the field nearly as bad as I do. Currently, even T14 graduates aren't getting jobs. The BigLaw firms, where most of the lucrative corporate law business in this country takes place, are exceptionally difficult to gain entry to.

Second, I could make a long winded argument as to why the best money for the average lawyer is definitely not in corporate law, at least in a career risk/ reward analysis is done for long term prospects. Ask if you want it.

Third, if you want to push paper day in and day out, working extraordinarily long hours, with no guarantee that you won't be let go when you get too senior, then by all means go corporate law. But it'll be a grueling ten years before you even know if all your effort pays off with an offer to be partner. Otherwise, they will push you out. Unless you can take a big client with you, you'll be fucked.

Moma, most people outside the legal profession have your perspective. That's why law schools are still flooded despite the market being dismal. I've done lots of my own research over the years, toying with the idea of going to law school, plus I have the benefit of an extensive network of attorneys that I talk to on a regular basis at social functions. I've been privilege to observe and get feedback on many of their career arcs for 7 years now. I've never had an attorney, young or old, recommend the legal profession. That includes the two millionaire attorney's that I know.

I gave the man a balanced perspective before, encouraging him if he felt that he knew something that I did not. I found your comment to give false encouragement. But maybe not for Canada. However, its hard for me to accept that the law profession in Canada would be faring that much better than that in the USA. Usually, the economies in any one industry, between the two countries, are follow each other fairly closely.

Also, the bulk of my response was given from the perspective of the OP's goals of having a mobile skillset given world economic considerations. From that perspective, I still think that a JD isn't a good choice, especially if he wants to work int he USA with a Canadian degree.

That doesn't mean that you cant make money and succeed as an attorney. It just means that I consider law school a bad risk, especially given the OP's motivations. Search out JimKirk's posts on the forum, or PM him, and see what he thinks. He works in NYC.

[hydrogonian]

@OP

If you want to have a truly high demand mobile career based on a legal practice, then get a CPA after your JD. You'll sit behind a desk your whole life, pushing paper, but you'll be very much in demand. Most likely wherever you go. That's because a JD CPA can offer clients something that a regular CPA can not, whcih is the client attorney privilege. You cant be forced to testify against your tax clients. That's worth a hell of a lot to a lot of people. Just a suggestion.

I will make disclaimer that I do not personally know any CPA JD's. This is what I have been told by other attorney's, and it also makes a lot of sense to me as a former business owner. If I had a CPA, I would seek out and pay extra for him to have that JD. The attorney client privilege is worth a lot of peace of mind. Additionally, formal letters from CPA JD's can inoculate you in a tax court if you get busted for following their advice.

If you go this route, the CPA qualification should make whatever law school that you attend much less relevant. As long as your JD is valid in whatever state that you practice. That's just conjecture, though. You could probably even set up a lucrative tax law telepractice.

[Menace]

In law school (part time) in DC, working at a large firm. What hydrogonian says is accurate. Many of my classmates do not have jobs. Corp law is cyclical because it follows business cycle (obvious). Areas such as banking, bankruptcy, and IP are more secure, to the extent that word has any real meaning anymore.

JD's are not portable generally. I think if you have a Canadian law degree you can take the NY bar. The key to success in law is to have specialized skills sets that others (partners, clients) will value, otherwise you are the same as every other person graduating from school with no knowledge of what the actual practice of law entails.

Here's a fun fact for you that most people don't realize about legal practice: there are no vacations. None. You can take time off, usually not more than 2 weeks at a time, but you have to make up for those billable hours you missed.

[Duke Castile]

I'm a little bummed out about the value of the dollar, my big plan was to have passive rental income allow me to travel around SA and SEA indiscrimintly banging with a high standard of living. That plan is looking more and more bleak every day....

[OSL]

My friend went to a no-name law school in Massachusetts and then packed up and went to Saigon after he graduated bc he couldn't find even a coffee fetching legal intern job in any major US cities. He's now working in some area of international trade, not directly using all aspects of what he learned, but a lot of the contract law that he covered is being put to good use by the company.

There are too many lawyers out there fighting for a limited amount of positions. I feel like young legal professionals are doomed to a life of location dependence of the worst possible kind.

As you know by this point, my kneejerk reaction is to always outsource yourself to where you will be considered a bright shiny object instead of a slave and then take initiative to both do your assigned projects as well as executing independent work of your own.

I dont know how applicable that is to law grads but I know at least two cases of law grads becoming location independent entreprenurs who utilize their legal knowledge for thier benefit. I think one of them is going to create an e-product for men who think that their wives or girlfriends are planning on ruining them financially, and how to take discreet steps to protect themselves legally before ditching their chick.

[Brian]

law school is high risk high reward. if you come out of a good school w/good grades you can make big money and be very successful although you will work your ass off. if you dont make the cut though and get picked up somewhere good you are in a heap of debt and your job prospects and earning power aren't anything special.

[rudebwoy]

Well your concerns are valid, the media does not report the doomsday sceneario b/c they want you to spend and not be worried. America will fall in less than 5 years time, the dollar has falling like a brick in a pond.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/...dit-rating

However, when America falls then Canada will not be far behind.

[hydrogonian]

Ok rudeboy, so tell me what happens when America and the dollar falls. I have some idea, but I want to gauge your perspective as well as your idea of "falling" means. The question isn't rhetorical. I'm actually curious.

Just for context, where are you from?

[CupCake]

Read Peter Schiff's book "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets" and subscribe to his YouTube channel: The Schiff Report. That will give you an understanding of what is going on economically and what you can do from there. There is a chapter in that book about leaving the country in the event that things really go to hell.

[CupCake]

(04-19-2011 01:11 PM)hydrogonian Wrote:  

Whatever happens here effects everyone else in the world to a great extent, and so the world as a whole has a vested interest in keeping North America on its feet.

I think you should find out how they are doing this. You'll realize they won't be doing it for long. See above comment.

[Jalouse]

(04-19-2011 09:55 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

Well your concerns are valid, the media does not report the doomsday sceneario b/c they want you to spend and not be worried. America will fall in less than 5 years time, the dollar has falling like a brick in a pond.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/...dit-rating

However, when America falls then Canada will not be far behind.

Watching day to day financial news will make you schizophrenic, if you look today all those loses on what was reported as slumping stocks have been made back, you can find these doomsday scenarios wherever you look.

Most of the long term financial news is that the US economy is getting back on track so I would actually be bullish on it rather than feeling concerned.

[metalhaze]

" when America falls then Canada will not be far behind."

Not so true, because of the low population (33million compared to what, 310 million in the states?) and the natural resources Canada has.

[hydrogonian]

(04-20-2011 10:48 AM)CupCake Wrote:  

(04-19-2011 01:11 PM)hydrogonian Wrote:  

Whatever happens here effects everyone else in the world to a great extent, and so the world as a whole has a vested interest in keeping North America on its feet.

I think you should find out how they are doing this. You'll realize they won't be doing it for long. See above comment.

I'm actually just curious as to what forum members think when they use the term "fall". Saying that the USA and the dollar will fall is a pretty open ended way of putting it. I pretty much know whats going on. When I said that I was curious, I was referring to his perspective.

I think that a lot of people are way too fearful based on a perspective that isn't quite the entire picture. Time will tell.

[Caramel Communist]

it's absolutely complete bullshit....americans are getting con-ed again by their government and political parties. Tell me, where exactly are all those investors gonna go with their dollars? If America is in such doom then why haven't they moved it already?

[rudebwoy]

Hydro - I live in Canada, Toronto. We are linked to America more than people realize, so I am not gloating at what is happening in America, it will affect us. To think this will not happen just because Canada has a low population is foolish, America sneezes and we catch the cold.

As you probably know China holds most of the American debt, which is anyone's guess how much it is at this rate. The debt is spiralling out of control and no amount of Quantitive Easing will rescue it. How long will China hold onto the debt? I have read that the US Government is basically selling out the country as we speak (I can dig up the articles if you think I am wrong).

Look at the job market, the housing market, the price of gas, the car industry that was basically bailed out by the tax-payer. Do you think these jobs that are being out-sourced to third world countries are coming back? Look at the Detroit (motor city) they are tearing down houses to build parks. They cannot give away houses. In the Toronto Star I have seen full page ads tempting Canadians to buy property in Florida.

What they are not telling you is that the Rich are already leaving the country and planning to leave. They are also dropping the dollar for gold/silver. I know a well to do lady in Canada who sold her house, is renting now and in the process bought large amounts of precious metals.

Let us not forget that history repeats itself, some are already calling it the great depression 2.

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm - interesting blog I read daily.

[Kaizen]

Im in toronto. dont know nearly as many lawyers as hydro but the ones I do know don't recommend the profession. I often visit a friend in his high rise after work. He looks like he's gonna shoot himself then says his favorite line: if it wasn't for the money, no one would do this job

and he's one of the lucky ones making good dough. an ex of mine worked in civil litigation...her hourly wage would likely convert to McD type wages...

The overall career satisfaction rate of this profession is incredibly low (any surprise here?)

Well covered in the following article:

http://www.torontolife.com/features/exile-bay-street/ a good article I read before about a lawyer dissing the profession.

**
I'm no economist so can't comment on the us economy tanking...but doesn't SnP's recent warning about downgrading US bonds have some meaning??

[hydrogonian]

(04-20-2011 11:35 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

As you probably know China holds most of the American debt, which is anyone's guess how much it is at this rate. The debt is spiralling out of control and no amount of Quantitive Easing will rescue it. How long will China hold onto the debt? I have read that the US Government is basically selling out the country as we speak (I can dig up the articles if you think I am wrong).

Look at the job market, the housing market, the price of gas, the car industry that was basically bailed out by the tax-payer. Do you think these jobs that are being out-sourced to third world countries are coming back? Look at the Detroit (motor city) they are tearing down houses to build parks. They cannot give away houses. In the Toronto Star I have seen full page ads tempting Canadians to buy property in Florida.

What they are not telling you is that the Rich are already leaving the country and planning to leave. They are also dropping the dollar for gold/silver. I know a well to do lady in Canada who sold her house, is renting now and in the process bought large amounts of precious metals.

Let us not forget that history repeats itself, some are already calling it the great depression 2.

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm - interesting blog I read daily.

So, whats the end game?

Although, I will say that I don't think that the rich are jumping like rats on a sinking ship. If you can provide proof for this, Id be interested.

[Samseau]

If America dies, the best place to be will still probably be America. The rest of the world will go straight to hell

[The_CEO]

You need to factor in China's manipulation of their currency and the sustainability (or unsustainability) of that and what would happen should that come to an end.

[Roosh]

I don't think it's wise to plan your life around a complete collapse of your government.

That said, the end game is the printing press. Instead of default they'll just inflate, screwing over savers and foreign governments that possess our debt.

I also am angry at the weaker dollar, but I have to do the best I can to live the life I want in spite of my government.

[rudebwoy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pla...qAM#at=132 - interesting!!!

[rudebwoy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-19...eport.html