What would Russia have to gain from starting a war over Iran? Are you equating Putin to someone like Stalin?
Who are their allies? By assuming that Russia would jump in, that is saying that Russia is willing to go all out, and that the US (and its allies) will hold back.
There has to be a realistic reason for everything. I'm sure there's even some rationality (for someone, or some group) to attack Iraq a decade ago, but you have to think about the group in power (ie. Russia's Putin) and whether they'd deem that they would have any chance. I don't think Russia would go all out over Iran. Russia isn't the Soviet Union. The Cold War is over.
The only thing holding back the United States from jumping into Iran, as far as I can see it, is that they don't have the resources (long term capital/man-power/national support) to go all out in Iran. This is why you see the US even bothering to talk with Iran at this point.
Then again, some wonk with actual factual info (government info/classified info) may know way better, and be in a much better position to clarify...
but, as far as I see it, it's not a doomsday scenario unless you have another Cheney/Neo-Con butt-licker in office, or a position of power or considerable influence, to make that sort of decision.
The big je-ne-sais-quoi comes from China. They are obviously moving up in the world stage, but what are they going to do? Are they going to take a stands-off approach, or are they going to rattle their economic stick? And if they do, what effect will that have? You see a lot of (individual) Chinese investment in the US, but where is the institutional/state investment going?
And even, were to say
Haim Saban and Sheldon Adelson were succesful in convincing the politicians and the U.S. public that fighting Iran is the way to go, are there enough gung-ho supporters of Israel in power to let it be?
Quote:Quote:
The two moguls said they regretted missing the recent opportunity to buy the Washington Post in order to influence Israel coverage in the American media, which they said was biased, and discussed the prospects of buying the New York Times.
- Jerusalem Post
We, in the public will never know what will happen until it happens, but I personally don't see much rationalization for Russian getting personally involved (but most definitely, peripherally).