[michelin]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/01/scienc...d=61344572

Sad news... Is this the end of Space tourism, before it even started? Celebrities like DiCaprio and others had alredy booked a ticket.

Personnally I believe in trial-and-error as the best way to move forward: it is pure red pill, what in the end is the best thing for humankind.



Any thoughts on this?

[dicknixon72]

Plenty of experimental aircraft have crashed in various stages of their development. Its the progression of techonology and the cost of living on the bleeding edge. Its a tragedy for certain, but the crew - like all aircrew - surely loved what they were doing and likely had few regrets. This should 'cripple' private commercial space travel the same way deHavilland Comet breakups 'crippled' commercial jet travel - lessons will be learned and progress will continue.

I will say one positive - if any - that results from this media coverage is at least people are talking about manned aeronautics and spaceflight. I guarantee outside of the aviation community, no one knows what Scaled Composites is/does, but everyone know what some vacuous Kardashian is on her menstrual cycle this week.

[Praetor Lupus]

(11-01-2014 09:55 AM)dicknixon72 Wrote:  

This should 'cripple' private commercial space travel the same way deHavilland Comet breakups 'crippled' commercial jet travel - lessons will be learned and progress will continue.

I agree.

[MrLemon]

Commercial space travel is a boondoggle. Sorry. Ain't ever gonna matter. You can't propel hollywood celebrities to 17,500 miles per hour without losing a few in the process. Basic physics.

Also, you NEVER put wings on a spacecraft. Never. Ever. The space shuttle, for example, was known throughout the aerospace industry to be a horrible design. Werner von Braun, still the greatest rocket designer in history, was utterly contemptuous of the design. Wings (and a stupid solid fuel booster design) are the reason the reason we lost 14 (count em, 14) astronauts while the Russians, with their old-fashioned tried-and-true launcher, lost ZERO.

[Foolsgo1d]

The point is to get them to the upper reaches of the atmosphere is it not? The border of space.

Putting wings on it allows for this sight-seeing trip. I don't envision many people wanting to splash the cash to go into a training regime in order to cope with the launch, let alone the G forces afterwards for a traditional rocket launch. if that was the case then we'd see lots of celebs going up now.

There is money to be made here. Lots of money. Never underestimate the next best shiny thing for those with a shitload of cash.

Space is our next frontier and what we're forgetting is the leaps of technological prowess afforded to the likes of NASA for these types of endeavor. You think the US government is going to participate in shuttling people into space before 2030? It isn't feasible because we're not in the mood.

Like all things new they were bound to hit problems. Anyone remember the initial jet and rocket testings? I read up on those. Extremely complex feats of engineering which had a lot of issues, including deaths.

I just believe rockets are too volatile a delivery system to get people there. Wouldn't a scramjet be better?

[speakeasy]

My condolences to the pilot that died and his family but let's call this project for what it is. It's a glorified roller coaster for the super wealthy. It's not a space ship, not even close to being one. It doesn't cross the 62 mile threshold to space and doesn't even make it to low earth orbit. Calling this thing a spaceship is nothing but BS marketing.

As much as I respect Richard Branson, I wish these billionaires like him and Elon Musk would put their effort into something the world actually needs. A system to detect and alter the course of incoming comets and asteroids. A few years back a series of asteroids collided into Jupiter. If those same rocks hit the earth, every human would be dead right now. A comet just grazed Mars last week. It's only a matter of time before it happens here again and right now we have nothing in place to alter the trajectory of these things. I really don't know why world leaders don't talk about this more often. If I was an uber billionaire this would be the first thing on my agenda.

[Engineer]

(11-01-2014 11:07 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  

Also, you NEVER put wings on a spacecraft. Never. Ever. The space shuttle, for example, was known throughout the aerospace industry to be a horrible design. Werner von Braun, still the greatest rocket designer in history, was utterly contemptuous of the design. Wings (and a stupid solid fuel booster design) are the reason the reason we lost 14 (count em, 14) astronauts while the Russians, with their old-fashioned tried-and-true launcher, lost ZERO.

The reason for wings on the shuttle was the forced marriage between NASA and the Air Force and a specific design requirement - cross range when launching into a south polar orbit from Vandenberg. The air force wanted to launch, overfly the USSR on the first orbit (surprise, comrades!), do something to help win the cold war, and then land back at the launch site, which because of the Earth's rotation during your time in flight is now ~1500 miles east.

Sad day for Virgin Galactic. They're no dummies with respect to the design and putting wings on the vehicle. They're there for a reason, probably return glide to base.

The Russians have lost 4 cosmonauts during spaceflight, but your point is correct, the Soyuz is generally very reliable.

[Engineer]

(11-01-2014 12:03 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

My condolences to the pilot that died and his family but let's call this project for what it is. It's a glorified roller coaster for the super wealthy. It's not a space ship, not even close to being one. It doesn't cross the 62 mile threshold to space and doesn't even make it to low earth orbit. Calling this thing a spaceship is nothing but BS marketing.

As much as I respect Richard Branson, I wish these billionaires like him and Elon Musk would put their effort into something the world actually needs. A system to detect and alter the course of incoming comets and asteroids. A few years back a series of asteroids collided into Jupiter. If those same rocks hit the earth, every human would be dead right now. A comet just grazed Mars last week. It's only a matter of time before it happens here again and right now we have nothing in place to alter the trajectory of these things. I really don't know why world leaders don't talk about this more often. If I was an uber billionaire this would be the first thing on my agenda.

They're working to lower launch costs, from which many good things will come. Musk's goal is to make humans multi-planetary, which helps with respect to asteroids because then a single rock won't kill everyone. Lots of other folks are already working on the asteroid threat issue.

Agree that space tourism is a fancy roller coaster for the ultrarich. They probably said the same about airplanes in the 1930's, and I'm glad that developed into the airline system we have today.

Space is 100km altitude, and Virgin Galactic's goal is 110km, so even though it's sub-orbital the uber-rich will get their astronaut wings and wear them to fancy parties on their designer dresses and tuxedos. From an "(altitude>100km) = astronaut" respect, they're no different from the X-15 pilots in the 1960's who flew that high, and I'm sure they'll tell their friends that repeatedly. But frankly, let them, who cares? This effort by Virgin will hopefully advance the state of the art in ways we can't yet imagine and everyone will benefit.

[Tuthmosis]

(11-01-2014 12:03 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

I wish these billionaires like him and Elon Musk would put their effort into something the world actually needs. A system to detect and alter the course of incoming comets and asteroids.

Or a reliable and affordable at-home STD test kit.
Or a better alternative for men than condoms.
Or a slut lie detector app.
Or a way to make all the fatties that would be cute if they weighed 50 pounds less hot.
Or something to cure bitches' crippling iPhone addiction.

The list goes on.

[The Father]

(11-01-2014 11:07 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  

Ain't ever gonna matter. You can't propel hollywood celebrities to 17,500 miles per hour without losing a few in the process. Basic physics.

And this is a BAD thing?!?

[The Father]

(11-01-2014 11:07 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  

Werner von Braun, still the greatest rocket designer in history, was utterly contemptuous of the design. Wings (and a stupid solid fuel booster design) are the reason the reason we lost 14 (count em, 14) astronauts while the Russians, with their old-fashioned tried-and-true launcher, lost ZERO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V7me25aNtI

[The Father]

(11-01-2014 01:24 PM)Tuthmosis Wrote:  

Or a slut lie detector app.

I have one!! It's when her lips are moving

Either set...

[The Father]

I happened to have interacted w/ some of the Virgin Galactic folks in my professional life. A few observations:

1) Commercial space travel is a way to get publicity, which Branson knows how to leverage. The main cash-generating opportunity here is commercial satellite launch, and they know it.
2) Branson's uncontrollable hucksterism has infected every aspect of this operation, and senior executives across various functions are glad-handing over-promisers first and foremost. That's why VG's primary achievements to date are their joint marketing deals with Grey Goose ("the official vodka of space!") and Land Rover ("the official vehicle that takes you from the hangar to the launch pad!!"). Every year since 2007, Branson has said "Oooo- THIS is the year we begin commercial launch!! We're just a few MONTHS away!". They are, in reality, a decade away.
3) The hucksterism didn't stop at marketing deals. They brought on a new CFO to lead an IPO in 2015. Ain't gonna happen in 2015, 2016, or any year that starts with "201x".
4) For all these reasons, Elon Musk's SpaceX, which focused first and foremost on commercial satellite launch, will be 5+ years ahead of Virgin, at least.

Sorry to see what happened to the pilots. But I can't say I'm say that the snake-oil salesmen who run VG got their come-uppance.

[CRR]

Interesting article I found in the NY Times article comments section:

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/10/30/a...ant-leaps/

I'm on the side that these mistakes were bound to happen. And I agree with the 'over promising' aspect.

[Dr. Howard]

Sad but not un-expected. Chuck Yeager has some insane stories of flight testing in the race for supersonic jets in the korean war era.

[Foolsgo1d]

(11-01-2014 12:03 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

.

As much as I respect Richard Branson, I wish these billionaires like him and Elon Musk would put their effort into something the world actually needs. A system to detect and alter the course of incoming comets and asteroids. A few years back a series of asteroids collided into Jupiter. If those same rocks hit the earth, every human would be dead right now. A comet just grazed Mars last week. It's only a matter of time before it happens here again and right now we have nothing in place to alter the trajectory of these things. I really don't know why world leaders don't talk about this more often. If I was an uber billionaire this would be the first thing on my agenda.

You could attribute this to modern day super/hyper cars and formula 1. A grandstanding "look at me" gesture to the masses but in the form of entertainment.

That is the cynical way of looking at it.

Formula 1 for the most part is at the cutting-edge of technology. New composites to replace existing frames? Done.

- Brakes?
- ABS?
- Wheel technology?
- Safety precautions?

All done with the help of cutting edge commercial and industrial prowess built on funds provided by the rich and powerful. All of this trickles down to the commercial sector.

The same goes for this space jolly for rich people. So what if they get to spend millions. An entire industry will be created, new jobs, new frontiers opened and more importantly. New technology.

This whole asteroid business is redundant. jupiter is massive. it pulls things in relatively easy and if we were to spot something as big as a country how would we stop it?

You'd need this type of technology to put into motion a series of technological evolutions.

[Dismal Operator]

(11-01-2014 12:03 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

My condolences to the pilot that died and his family but let's call this project for what it is. It's a glorified roller coaster for the super wealthy.

Most game changing advancements have started out as things only the super rich can afford to overpay for. Then as time goes on, the product improves and can be had cheaper, in the process becoming accessible to more people. Not to mention the knock on effects once the technology is mastered, which can be applied to similar goals in space exploration.

[Phoenix]

(11-01-2014 11:15 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

I just believe rockets are too volatile a delivery system to get people there. Wouldn't a scramjet be better?

Its still in research. As I recall, from the people I've talked to who are or were involved, the problem is:
a) Getting the scramjet to 'ignition speed'. The scramjet needs to already be at a certain speed to create enough air induction ('ramming the air in'). In experiments they are normally doing this by taking it up above the atmosphere with conventional propulsion, then 'dropping it back in'. Basically, it has no way of bootstrapping itself, and needs initial propulsion from some other source.
b) The intake area. I had a chat with a cynical gentleman who had been previously been involved in scramjet R&D. He told me that because of how much frontal area the intake requires, there is little room for much else such as passengers, and that 'basically, it is a re-entry vehicle; it flies so fast that no counter-missile can hit it'.

[speakeasy]

(11-01-2014 02:56 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

(11-01-2014 12:03 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

.

As much as I respect Richard Branson, I wish these billionaires like him and Elon Musk would put their effort into something the world actually needs. A system to detect and alter the course of incoming comets and asteroids. A few years back a series of asteroids collided into Jupiter. If those same rocks hit the earth, every human would be dead right now. A comet just grazed Mars last week. It's only a matter of time before it happens here again and right now we have nothing in place to alter the trajectory of these things. I really don't know why world leaders don't talk about this more often. If I was an uber billionaire this would be the first thing on my agenda.

You could attribute this to modern day super/hyper cars and formula 1. A grandstanding "look at me" gesture to the masses but in the form of entertainment.

That is the cynical way of looking at it.

Formula 1 for the most part is at the cutting-edge of technology. New composites to replace existing frames? Done.

- Brakes?
- ABS?
- Wheel technology?
- Safety precautions?

All done with the help of cutting edge commercial and industrial prowess built on funds provided by the rich and powerful. All of this trickles down to the commercial sector.

The same goes for this space jolly for rich people. So what if they get to spend millions. An entire industry will be created, new jobs, new frontiers opened and more importantly. New technology.

I'm not seeing what's new about anything Virgin Galactic is doing. They aren't sending people outside of lunar orbit, or to Mars. They are using rocket technology to shoot people into the high atmosphere(not space) for 5 minutes of weightlessness. What exactly is ground breaking about this? I think it's cool and all if you can blow $250,000 on that experience like it's nothing. But not seeing what the trickle down of this is going to be.

Quote:

This whole asteroid business is redundant. jupiter is massive. it pulls things in relatively easy and if we were to spot something as big as a country how would we stop it?

Better detection for one thing. Most asteroids that come near earth we don't know about until they're right at our doorstep. After that, you could intercept them while they are far away and alter their trajectory with explosives. Even a 1% change in course will do.

And you wouldn't find an asteroid as big as a country, that would be a planetoid, and they aren't wandering around the solar system. All you'd need is a 1 mile wide rock to hit the restart button on humanity.

[Foolsgo1d]

(11-01-2014 03:38 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

I'm not seeing what's new about anything Virgin Galactic is doing. They aren't sending people outside of lunar orbit, or to Mars. They are using rocket technology to shoot people into the high atmosphere(not space) for 5 minutes of weightlessness. What exactly is ground breaking about this? I think it's cool and all if you can blow $250,000 on that experience like it's nothing. But not seeing what the trickle down of this is going to be.

Better detection for one thing. Most asteroids that come near earth we don't know about until they're right at our doorstep. After that, you could intercept them while they are far away and alter their trajectory with explosives. Even a 1% change in course will do.

And you wouldn't find an asteroid as big as a country, that would be a planetoid, and they aren't wandering around the solar system. All you'd need is a 1 mile wide rock to hit the restart button on humanity.

Trickle down does not come as soon as something is put on an expensive piece of engineering. DVD players (yes I know) were in the 2k bracket when they first came out.

Now? You can buy one for £100 or less.

This is an endeavor that has never been done before. Regardless of not attaining true space flight it offers people with cash the opportunity to get up there.

People like Branson hold the key to space exploration. Corporations, not countries hold the wealth and will-power to do this because they're only beholden to stockholders.

To shoot down a new form of near-space exploration because it is using existing rocket technology isn't fair. When these people get bored of going into the atmosphere they will demand a bigger prize.

The moon is the next logical step but the demand needs to be there. NASA was gutted by subsequent administrations. They are relying on independent scientists to help detect the small asteroids. Pretty sure I watched a documentary on this subject and how even if we did find them we couldn't stop it. I believe the video is on youtube.

Meanwhile the CIA, NSA and other god-like agencies choose to point billion dollar spy cameras that can read a newspaper on the ground and not outwards.

Priorities are mis-guided here I agree.

[Veloce]

(11-01-2014 12:03 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

A few years back a series of asteroids collided into Jupiter. If those same rocks hit the earth, every human would be dead right now. A comet just grazed Mars last week. It's only a matter of time before it happens here again and right now we have nothing in place to alter the trajectory of these things. I really don't know why world leaders don't talk about this more often. If I was an uber billionaire this would be the first thing on my agenda.

It's interesting you bring this up. I've brought up the shoemaker-levy impact in conversation a few times, and pretty much noone has any clue what I'm talking about. They don't realize how extremely rare of an event this was and how lucky we were to witness it in our lifetime (assuming they're 28+)

My dad is a fairly prominent astronomer and I remember looking at these spots on Jupiter from his telescope. He told me in the most casual tone possible, "See that biggest dark spot? That's 4 times the size of earth".

Pretty heavy shit for a 13 year old!

Anyway I see good points all across, but I'm leaning with Speak here. I really don't think that Virgin has any intention of colonizing Mars or some other project that would dramatically affect the course of humanity. They're giving rich people a chance to do something that's been done many, many times before.

SpaceX is another story.

Edit: Just to put things in perspective:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Shoem...0%93Levy_9

Quote:

Over the next 6 days, 21 distinct impacts were observed, with the largest coming on July 18 at 07:33 UTC when fragment G struck Jupiter. This impact created a giant dark spot over 12,000 km across, and was estimated to have released an energy equivalent to 6,000,000 megatons of TNT (600 times the world's nuclear arsenal).[17] Two impacts 12 hours apart on July 19 created impact marks of similar size to that caused by fragment G, and impacts continued until July 22, when fragment W struck the planet.[18]

[PastTense]

So exactly how would this work: How much would a trip cost? How long would the trip last? Would this actually be an enjoyable experience (or would you be subject to high G forces...)?

[bojangles]

(11-01-2014 04:47 PM)Veloce Wrote:  

(11-01-2014 12:03 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

A few years back a series of asteroids collided into Jupiter. If those same rocks hit the earth, every human would be dead right now. A comet just grazed Mars last week. It's only a matter of time before it happens here again and right now we have nothing in place to alter the trajectory of these things. I really don't know why world leaders don't talk about this more often. If I was an uber billionaire this would be the first thing on my agenda.

It's interesting you bring this up. I've brought up the shoemaker-levy impact in conversation a few times, and pretty much noone has any clue what I'm talking about. They don't realize how extremely rare of an event this was and how lucky we were to witness it in our lifetime (assuming they're 28+)

My dad is a fairly prominent astronomer and I remember looking at these spots on Jupiter from his telescope. He told me in the most casual tone possible, "See that biggest dark spot? That's 4 times the size of earth".

Pretty heavy shit for a 13 year old!

Anyway I see good points all across, but I'm leaning with Speak here. I really don't think that Virgin has any intention of colonizing Mars or some other project that would dramatically affect the course of humanity. They're giving rich people a chance to do something that's been done many, many times before.

SpaceX is another story.

Edit: Just to put things in perspective:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Shoem...0%93Levy_9

Quote:

Over the next 6 days, 21 distinct impacts were observed, with the largest coming on July 18 at 07:33 UTC when fragment G struck Jupiter. This impact created a giant dark spot over 12,000 km across, and was estimated to have released an energy equivalent to 6,000,000 megatons of TNT (600 times the world's nuclear arsenal).[17] Two impacts 12 hours apart on July 19 created impact marks of similar size to that caused by fragment G, and impacts continued until July 22, when fragment W struck the planet.[18]

I was really interested in the cosmos when that happened, it was brilliant but also terrifying. Thankfully Jupiter cleans up a lot of shit, didnt that inspire all the disaster movies that were space related at the time? Deep Impact, Armageddon etc