013 Men's Tennis
08-08-2013, 02:05 AM
I checked for any threads relating to the ATP World Tour and only found one analyzing Roger Federer's game (as in, his game game, how hot his wife is vs. the girlfriends of his rivals, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, and current World No. 1 Novak Djokovic), but couldn't find a dedicated thread.
What do the tennis fans here think about how 2013 has unfolded so far?
Year-To-Date Report:
Djokovic won the Australian Open, Nadal won the French Open, and Andy Murray achieved a historic win at Wimbledon, breaking a drought pushing 80 years since a player from Great Britain last took the title.
Djokovic is the reining World No. 1. His dominance, while not on the stratospheric level of 2011, speaks for itself.
Murray has won two Grand Slams now; he has officially gained parity amongst the Big Four. His time with Ivan Lendl has been transformative: his forehand has become a deadly weapon, he is no longer the counterpuncher (though of course his retrieval ability is still unparalleled.) His Wimbledon win will be remembered perenially as macro-historic in the sport in significance.
David Ferrer has been incredibly solid and has reached a career-high of No. 3. He's tenacious, dogged, and consistent from the baseline; he's beaten everyone but the top four guys, and for the last few years the semifinal stage has been the impasse.
Nadal's 2013 seems to be mirroring his 2012, except without the seven-months long injury. Like last year, he won at the French Open, defeating Djokovic en route to the title, only to be hit by a shock upset at Wimbledon. Last year it was in the second round - this year in the first round. His competitiveness off clay has been volatile.
Federer has undergone a worrisome slump, dropping to No. 5. The last time he was ranked that low, I was just a boy. He's won only one title, at Halle. He suffered his earliest defeat at a Grand Slam at Wimbledon, exiting in the second round to a little-known player named Delbonis (who was a qualifier). He switched racquets, and suffered another uncharacteristic loss to Daniel Brands in Hamburg. He also pulled out of Montreal (which is ongoing this week) and has had to deal with back problems.
Predictions
Immediately, I think Djokovic will win in Montreal. It's always hard to pick between Djokovic and Murray when they're in the draw. Nadal is in the field too, but traditionally the hard court season has been his worst.
I predict Federer will win one more title in 2013, Basel, his hometown. Djokovic and Murray will split the American hard court season. Murray will dominate the Asian hard court season. One of the two will win the U.S. Open, the last of the four majors in the calendar year. I think Nadal will make his resurgence in the Year End Finals indoors at London, where he will either win or lose to Djokovic or Murray. It is of course possible that Federer prevails there since he's the single most dominant indoor player, and by that time he might be familiarized enough with the new racquet, no more back issues, etc.
Memorable Matches
Australian Open quarterfinal: Stan Wawrinka, the No. 2 Swiss player, perpetually in the shadow of Federer, rises up and fights like a lion to take Djokovic to five sets. Wild swings throughout: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-ObSrh9Xcc
Australian Open quarterfinal: Federer vs Tsonga. Always entertaining, both explosive and flashy shotmakers, another exciting five-setter: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kv53TmsGVh0
Australian Open semifinal: Federer was in amazing form, as was Murray. Dramatic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDFCeUF8syc
Indian Wells round two: Nalbandian vs Janowicz. Nalbandian used to be one of the dominant players who firmly owned Federer in the beginning of their careers and was his nemesis, he in my view should be a multi-Grand Slam player, but his career has been derailed by injuries and a lack of drive, contentment with the materialistic side of the game. Still, what a beautiful game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXCKGZpDm0Q
Sao Paolo final: Nadal vs Nalbandian. Not very competitive, but at the time it was interesting, Nadal had just returned from his layoff from the tour and it was Nalbandian, who played his part in great matches against Nadal in the past: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Vn6y-EQBY0
Rome quarterfinal: Federer vs. Janowicz. Promising player from Poland, this guy showed up last year in Paris, where he upset Murray and a string of other veterans before losing to Ferrer in the finals. Pretty badass debut, lots of action at the net: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xfOtobpn_E
Barcelona semifinal: Nadal vs Raonic. The young Canadian, probably the most successful of the next generation, with a Pete Sampras-like serve, booming forehand, and great net game. It was great to see him go up against Nadal and try and figure things out and adapt his game, and increasingly fall under the pressure of Nadal's relentness nature: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_hQODfaF4o
Roland Garros semifinal: Djokovic vs Nadal. This was more like a final: one of the few times the King of Clay was taken to five sets, ever.
Wimbledon semifinal: Djokovic vs Del Potro, the only player besides the top four to win a major in recent memory (U.S. Open 2009): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1pjuT0I1lU
Miami round four: Djokovic vs Haas. Tommy's in the same age group as Roger Federer, and all the sudden he's made a huge comeback, making it in the later stage of several tournaments, great to see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASefwzBUQTE
Miami semifinals: Murray vs Gasquet, the talented Frenchman with a backhand as beautiful as Federer's, whose potential was never fully realized, but his last two years have been excellent, he still proves himself no mean threat: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7e81hNur20
The Up and Coming Players
Amongst the younger players, the Bulgarian player and former junior Wimbledon champ, Grigor Dimitrov I think is the most promising. He upset Djokovic for the first time in Madrid in the second round: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y63h_5Wrjlc.
He came close to taking down Nadal at Monte Carlo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51lr30Q3arM
He's been in position to win the first set (as in serving to close out the set) against Murray and Nadal in the past so it's always been a mental barrier, but he's pushing his way forward. This is Federer-like potential in my opinion, and his backhand is more solid on the return of serve, which is Roger's single greatest flaw in that he tends to chip it back passively. You can just sense that his guy has a huge range of options on every shot.
However, hasn't made it past the second round of a Grand Slam yet.
Jerzy Janowicz as well. Big baseline game, skillful touch at net, already seems mentally acclimated to the big matches. Made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon this year.
Bernard Tomic hasn't really been outstanding (compared to his 2011 Wimbledon quarterfinal and 2012 Aussie Open round 4), but his slow 2013 is a natural stage in development. He's comfortably making it past the opening rounds at the Grand Slams, very impressive. I liked his Rotterdam match vs. Dimitrov.
Milos Raonic has the deadliest serve on tour, though his return game statistics are some of the worst on tour. Still, he's taken sets off of Federer, acquitted himself well against Nadal, and has beaten Murray twice. He's the other of the youngsters who comfortably wins the first few rounds at the slams. Liked his Brisbane match vs. Dimitrov as well.
Ryan Harrison is the only young American of note, but he's outshone by the others. There are flashes of brilliance and tennis IQ, but he's constantly forced behind the baseline against the top four, whereas Tomic, Dimitrov, Raonic, Janowicz, have all had some measure of success against them. He's a product of the USTA, and I have a lot of issues with the Bollettieri method.
Take any of the above guys, and they have something that makes them unique and dangerous, whether it be Dimitrov's sheer Federeresqueness, Janowicz's touch, Raonic's serve, or Tomic's backhand slice. Harrison is the only one without that distinguishing weapon. Still, he made it to the top 50 last year and has since fallen out of the top 100, and for a 21 year-old he still has room to grow.
What do the tennis fans here think about how 2013 has unfolded so far?
Year-To-Date Report:
Djokovic won the Australian Open, Nadal won the French Open, and Andy Murray achieved a historic win at Wimbledon, breaking a drought pushing 80 years since a player from Great Britain last took the title.
Djokovic is the reining World No. 1. His dominance, while not on the stratospheric level of 2011, speaks for itself.
Murray has won two Grand Slams now; he has officially gained parity amongst the Big Four. His time with Ivan Lendl has been transformative: his forehand has become a deadly weapon, he is no longer the counterpuncher (though of course his retrieval ability is still unparalleled.) His Wimbledon win will be remembered perenially as macro-historic in the sport in significance.
David Ferrer has been incredibly solid and has reached a career-high of No. 3. He's tenacious, dogged, and consistent from the baseline; he's beaten everyone but the top four guys, and for the last few years the semifinal stage has been the impasse.
Nadal's 2013 seems to be mirroring his 2012, except without the seven-months long injury. Like last year, he won at the French Open, defeating Djokovic en route to the title, only to be hit by a shock upset at Wimbledon. Last year it was in the second round - this year in the first round. His competitiveness off clay has been volatile.
Federer has undergone a worrisome slump, dropping to No. 5. The last time he was ranked that low, I was just a boy. He's won only one title, at Halle. He suffered his earliest defeat at a Grand Slam at Wimbledon, exiting in the second round to a little-known player named Delbonis (who was a qualifier). He switched racquets, and suffered another uncharacteristic loss to Daniel Brands in Hamburg. He also pulled out of Montreal (which is ongoing this week) and has had to deal with back problems.
Predictions
Immediately, I think Djokovic will win in Montreal. It's always hard to pick between Djokovic and Murray when they're in the draw. Nadal is in the field too, but traditionally the hard court season has been his worst.
I predict Federer will win one more title in 2013, Basel, his hometown. Djokovic and Murray will split the American hard court season. Murray will dominate the Asian hard court season. One of the two will win the U.S. Open, the last of the four majors in the calendar year. I think Nadal will make his resurgence in the Year End Finals indoors at London, where he will either win or lose to Djokovic or Murray. It is of course possible that Federer prevails there since he's the single most dominant indoor player, and by that time he might be familiarized enough with the new racquet, no more back issues, etc.
Memorable Matches
Australian Open quarterfinal: Stan Wawrinka, the No. 2 Swiss player, perpetually in the shadow of Federer, rises up and fights like a lion to take Djokovic to five sets. Wild swings throughout: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-ObSrh9Xcc
Australian Open quarterfinal: Federer vs Tsonga. Always entertaining, both explosive and flashy shotmakers, another exciting five-setter: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kv53TmsGVh0
Australian Open semifinal: Federer was in amazing form, as was Murray. Dramatic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDFCeUF8syc
Indian Wells round two: Nalbandian vs Janowicz. Nalbandian used to be one of the dominant players who firmly owned Federer in the beginning of their careers and was his nemesis, he in my view should be a multi-Grand Slam player, but his career has been derailed by injuries and a lack of drive, contentment with the materialistic side of the game. Still, what a beautiful game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXCKGZpDm0Q
Sao Paolo final: Nadal vs Nalbandian. Not very competitive, but at the time it was interesting, Nadal had just returned from his layoff from the tour and it was Nalbandian, who played his part in great matches against Nadal in the past: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Vn6y-EQBY0
Rome quarterfinal: Federer vs. Janowicz. Promising player from Poland, this guy showed up last year in Paris, where he upset Murray and a string of other veterans before losing to Ferrer in the finals. Pretty badass debut, lots of action at the net: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xfOtobpn_E
Barcelona semifinal: Nadal vs Raonic. The young Canadian, probably the most successful of the next generation, with a Pete Sampras-like serve, booming forehand, and great net game. It was great to see him go up against Nadal and try and figure things out and adapt his game, and increasingly fall under the pressure of Nadal's relentness nature: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_hQODfaF4o
Roland Garros semifinal: Djokovic vs Nadal. This was more like a final: one of the few times the King of Clay was taken to five sets, ever.
Wimbledon semifinal: Djokovic vs Del Potro, the only player besides the top four to win a major in recent memory (U.S. Open 2009): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1pjuT0I1lU
Miami round four: Djokovic vs Haas. Tommy's in the same age group as Roger Federer, and all the sudden he's made a huge comeback, making it in the later stage of several tournaments, great to see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASefwzBUQTE
Miami semifinals: Murray vs Gasquet, the talented Frenchman with a backhand as beautiful as Federer's, whose potential was never fully realized, but his last two years have been excellent, he still proves himself no mean threat: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7e81hNur20
The Up and Coming Players
Amongst the younger players, the Bulgarian player and former junior Wimbledon champ, Grigor Dimitrov I think is the most promising. He upset Djokovic for the first time in Madrid in the second round: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y63h_5Wrjlc.
He came close to taking down Nadal at Monte Carlo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51lr30Q3arM
He's been in position to win the first set (as in serving to close out the set) against Murray and Nadal in the past so it's always been a mental barrier, but he's pushing his way forward. This is Federer-like potential in my opinion, and his backhand is more solid on the return of serve, which is Roger's single greatest flaw in that he tends to chip it back passively. You can just sense that his guy has a huge range of options on every shot.
However, hasn't made it past the second round of a Grand Slam yet.
Jerzy Janowicz as well. Big baseline game, skillful touch at net, already seems mentally acclimated to the big matches. Made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon this year.
Bernard Tomic hasn't really been outstanding (compared to his 2011 Wimbledon quarterfinal and 2012 Aussie Open round 4), but his slow 2013 is a natural stage in development. He's comfortably making it past the opening rounds at the Grand Slams, very impressive. I liked his Rotterdam match vs. Dimitrov.
Milos Raonic has the deadliest serve on tour, though his return game statistics are some of the worst on tour. Still, he's taken sets off of Federer, acquitted himself well against Nadal, and has beaten Murray twice. He's the other of the youngsters who comfortably wins the first few rounds at the slams. Liked his Brisbane match vs. Dimitrov as well.
Ryan Harrison is the only young American of note, but he's outshone by the others. There are flashes of brilliance and tennis IQ, but he's constantly forced behind the baseline against the top four, whereas Tomic, Dimitrov, Raonic, Janowicz, have all had some measure of success against them. He's a product of the USTA, and I have a lot of issues with the Bollettieri method.
Take any of the above guys, and they have something that makes them unique and dangerous, whether it be Dimitrov's sheer Federeresqueness, Janowicz's touch, Raonic's serve, or Tomic's backhand slice. Harrison is the only one without that distinguishing weapon. Still, he made it to the top 50 last year and has since fallen out of the top 100, and for a 21 year-old he still has room to grow.
