[Giovonny]

(08-22-2014 04:34 AM)Feisbook Control Wrote:  

It sounds like inland California is pretty dystopian

"Inland California" produces most of the fruits, vegetables, and nuts that feed America.

It's far from "dystopian".

It literally feeds America.

Just saying..

[speakeasy]

Those ate good points. Although I'm focused toward becoming location independent and going international, if I come back to the USA, California is still my top choice. I like being outdoors active and being able to do all that stuff no matter the time of year weighs heavily with me. Where I live now it's too hot and humid to be active in the summer, but winter is too fucking cold to go riding my bike. So there's only like four months out of the year that it's fairly pleasant. California weather spoiled me for life.

[AneroidOcean]

Recently took a road trip up and down the west coast staying as close to the coast as possible, and what can I say, fuck I love the west coast.

LA county is huge. Downtown is still huge. Roads are pretty poor (although this varies greatly by area/freeway/road), traffic sucks donkey balls, but there is just about anything you want to find. OC/SD/SF are nicer with less shit to deal with (except SF with regard to traffic).

The coast is definitely where it's at. Went camping down by the K58 and further south camping spots and it's super nice if you can handle a poor country and the increased danger.

I'm fully supportive of more people leaving the west coast. I'm totally fine with it.

[el mechanico]

What's up with the real estate and rent prices out there? It seem shit to me is everyone house/apt poor?

[Foolsgo1d]

No-one mentions Earthquakes with Cali. Isn't that place overdue for a huge one?

[Drazen]

(08-22-2014 02:11 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

No-one mentions Earthquakes with Cali. Isn't that place overdue for a huge one?

Maybe it is. Lots of places have Earthquakes. Its honestly not that big of a deal. There are some here but they are usually pretty minor and insignificant (knocks on wood).

Its like saying "I'd never move to Miami, they always have Hurricanes" or "I can't move to New York, it snows a lot in the winter".

[Drazen]

(08-22-2014 02:02 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

What's up with the real estate and rent prices out there? It seem shit to me is everyone house/apt poor?

It has one of the lowest affordability indexes in the US I believe. The rental and housing average doesn't match up with the average income. Its hard to get a house out here on an average income, and if you do, chances are its outside the prime areas. As has been mentioned, its kind of hard to set up roots here due to the income versus housing prices, which makes it a somewhat transient population.

http://la.curbed.com/archives/2014/08/la...buying.php

[Drazen]

(08-22-2014 01:45 PM)Giovonny Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 04:34 AM)Feisbook Control Wrote:  

It sounds like inland California is pretty dystopian

"Inland California" produces most of the fruits, vegetables, and nuts that feed America.

It's far from "dystopian".

It literally feeds America.

Just saying..

One thing I noticed when going east is that the produce is terrible. We have it so good in California being so close to the great farms with vegetables, fruits and excellent farmers market. Its reflected in your average restaurant where vegetables don't suck.

[el mechanico]

(08-22-2014 02:16 PM)Drazen Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 02:02 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

What's up with the real estate and rent prices out there? It seem shit to me is everyone house/apt poor?

It has one of the lowest affordability indexes in the US I believe. The rental and housing average doesn't match up with the average income. Its hard to get a house out here on an average income, and if you do, chances are its outside the prime areas. As has been mentioned, its kind of hard to set up roots here due to the income versus housing prices, which makes it a somewhat transient population.

http://la.curbed.com/archives/2014/08/la...buying.php

You guys are ok with this? I think it's still a huge bubble

[speakeasy]

(08-22-2014 02:16 PM)Drazen Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 02:02 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

What's up with the real estate and rent prices out there? It seem shit to me is everyone house/apt poor?

It has one of the lowest affordability indexes in the US I believe. The rental and housing average doesn't match up with the average income. Its hard to get a house out here on an average income, and if you do, chances are its outside the prime areas. As has been mentioned, its kind of hard to set up roots here due to the income versus housing prices, which makes it a somewhat transient population.

http://la.curbed.com/archives/2014/08/la...buying.php

That's the crazy thing about L.A., you'd think that the jobs there would pay much more like they do in NYC given the high cost of living, but they don't. The jobs pay relatively poorly.

The growth in California isn't coming from people moving in from other states. In fact more Americans leave California than arrive. Nobody in their right mind would relocate their family to California unless they were recruited by a high paying Silicon Valley job or work in the entertainment industry. So who is coming? Mostly immigrants from Latin America. As shitty as L.A. schools are, it's a huge upgrade if Mexican schools are your basis of comparison. And living two families in a house in Boyle Heights is perfectly normal given the cultural background. The majority of homes in L.A. are rented and many people seem content with being permanent renters. Why? I don't know, maybe they just like being able to say they live in California, or they are scared about "rednecks" once they cross the Colorado river. I've been in the south now for 7 months and haven't had anyone shoving a bible down my throat nor ran across any racist hicks. All that stuff is a bunch of hype. I just mention that because someone further up in the thread mentioned the south being full of religious nuts and hicks. If anything I've learned that people pretty much do the same shit anywhere. Especially married couples. They spend the majority of their waking hours working, commute home, watch TV and fall asleep. Then on the weekend go to Applebees with the kids. I always wonder why people who live that type of nondescript lifestyle just don't move to Texas where they'd have the same identical life at half the cost.

[Drazen]

(08-22-2014 04:26 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 02:16 PM)Drazen Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 02:02 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

What's up with the real estate and rent prices out there? It seem shit to me is everyone house/apt poor?

It has one of the lowest affordability indexes in the US I believe. The rental and housing average doesn't match up with the average income. Its hard to get a house out here on an average income, and if you do, chances are its outside the prime areas. As has been mentioned, its kind of hard to set up roots here due to the income versus housing prices, which makes it a somewhat transient population.

http://la.curbed.com/archives/2014/08/la...buying.php

You guys are ok with this? I think it's still a huge bubble

I live in a rent-controlled building. I'm totally fine with it. I make more than the average income and my rent is lower than that average rent, so its all good for me. That's what I'm talking about when LA is a very "selfish" city. I am doing ok in my realm, everything else doesn't matter all that much. Could care less how "average" costs are, I'm doing me.

If I wanted to buy a house or settle down, I'd really have to step my shit up money wise, its just not really feasible to do in LA while maintaing a good lifestyle. Truth be told, if I were to go in that direction I'd get the fuck out of Dodge.

A $500k house here is a dump. Renting in the good areas here is going to be like $2k a month while the jobs here aren't really that serious or traditional, not a lot of officer workers here. There are a bunch of people roaming around the city and you think to yourself, "what do they do all day". That's just reality here, a town of roaming hustlers.

Its only a bubble away from the coast. If you're near the water, the prices are what they are, people want to live there.

[Foolsgo1d]

(08-22-2014 02:14 PM)Drazen Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 02:11 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

No-one mentions Earthquakes with Cali. Isn't that place overdue for a huge one?

Maybe it is. Lots of places have Earthquakes. Its honestly not that big of a deal. There are some here but they are usually pretty minor and insignificant (knocks on wood).

Its like saying "I'd never move to Miami, they always have Hurricanes" or "I can't move to New York, it snows a lot in the winter".

I wouldn't move to a place with Hurricanes, Tornadoes and earthquakes. That stuff just speaks to me as natures way of culling those daft enough to stay there.

I prefer the land to stay as it is and the towns and cities stay intact thank you very much.

[MdWanderer]

(08-22-2014 06:05 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 02:16 PM)Drazen Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 02:02 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

What's up with the real estate and rent prices out there? It seem shit to me is everyone house/apt poor?

It has one of the lowest affordability indexes in the US I believe. The rental and housing average doesn't match up with the average income. Its hard to get a house out here on an average income, and if you do, chances are its outside the prime areas. As has been mentioned, its kind of hard to set up roots here due to the income versus housing prices, which makes it a somewhat transient population.

http://la.curbed.com/archives/2014/08/la...buying.php

That's the crazy thing about L.A., you'd think that the jobs there would pay much more like they do in NYC given the high cost of living, but they don't. The jobs pay relatively poorly.

The growth in California isn't coming from people moving in from other states. In fact more Americans leave California than arrive. Nobody in their right mind would relocate their family to California unless they were recruited by a high paying Silicon Valley job or work in the entertainment industry. So who is coming? Mostly immigrants from Latin America. As shitty as L.A. schools are, it's a huge upgrade if Mexican schools are your basis of comparison. And living two families in a house in Boyle Heights is perfectly normal given the cultural background. The majority of homes in L.A. are rented and many people seem content with being permanent renters. Why? I don't know, maybe they just like being able to say they live in California, or they are scared about "rednecks" once they cross the Colorado river. I've been in the south now for 7 months and haven't had anyone shoving a bible down my throat nor ran across any racist hicks. All that stuff is a bunch of hype. I just mention that because someone further up in the thread mentioned the south being full of religious nuts and hicks. If anything I've learned that people pretty much do the same shit anywhere. Especially married couples. They spend the majority of their waking hours working, commute home, watch TV and fall asleep. Then on the weekend go to Applebees with the kids. I always wonder why people who live that type of nondescript lifestyle just don't move to Texas where they'd have the same identical life at half the cost.

Where in the South do you live? I would like to settle there at some point. I live in Virginia now and liking it a lot so far.

[nerdjack80]

We can’t say no to illegals. That would mean that we are racists. As a result we welcome them with open arms. It will all be wonderful right up until the time that we turn on the faucet and nothing comes out.

[Akula]

(08-22-2014 07:23 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

I wouldn't move to a place with Hurricanes, Tornadoes and earthquakes. That stuff just speaks to me as natures way of culling those daft enough to stay there.

^^ then you pretty much can't move to the US then as most states have one of the above on a somewhat regular basis these days!

[Rigsby]

(08-20-2014 10:23 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

If you want to know what the rest of America will be like in 20-30 years, just look at California now. Not looking too pretty...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasdelbec...and-water/

It really is sad to see the decline. Half a century ago it was the land of opportunity. Now it's basically Greece on the Pacific. Just goes to show, whenever something is good, enjoy it to the max, because it won't be that way forever. Wherever your paradise is right now, it probably won't be in 25 years.

I've been reading this book about the whole scene from way back = Neil Young, Manson, Joni Mitchelle, Crosby, Stills Nash and Young. etc..


Laurel Canyon and the Birth of the Hippie Generation:
http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr93.html

About how all those musos parents came from Military Intelligence or whatever.

Still, lots of people are getting out aren't they? I don't think it is the fear of the big one that gets them going, it seems to be more the drought and wild fires.

Check out that book. He makes lots of unjustified assertions, but the background research is fascinating.

The Doors, Zappa...

[Foolsgo1d]

(08-23-2014 06:27 PM)Akula Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 07:23 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

I wouldn't move to a place with Hurricanes, Tornadoes and earthquakes. That stuff just speaks to me as natures way of culling those daft enough to stay there.

^^ then you pretty much can't move to the US then as most states have one of the above on a somewhat regular basis these days!

Don't get me wrong, I would visit. Experiencing a hurricane, earthquake and tornado are on my to do list before I die. Unless I die doing either of them.

[RexImperator]

Heard there was a decently sized earthquake up in Napa today.

I don't think earthquakes will affect people's decision where to live because the large ones are relatively rare. People may die, but then others rebuild.

[speakeasy]

(08-24-2014 04:00 PM)RexImperator Wrote:  

Heard there was a decently sized earthquake up in Napa today.

I don't think earthquakes will affect people's decision where to live because the large ones are relatively rare. People may die, but then others rebuild.

Another 1906 level earthquake might make San Francisco affordable for a couple years.

[RexImperator]

(08-24-2014 05:40 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

(08-24-2014 04:00 PM)RexImperator Wrote:  

Heard there was a decently sized earthquake up in Napa today.

I don't think earthquakes will affect people's decision where to live because the large ones are relatively rare. People may die, but then others rebuild.

Another 1906 level earthquake might make San Francisco affordable for a couple years.

Maybe not, because every new building will have to be LEED certified.

[iknowexactly]

(08-21-2014 04:28 AM)DVY Wrote:  

CA may be dying but SF, LA, OC and SD are booming!

I was just in SF this week to get a longer-term Philippines visa, and gigabuck 30-story futuristic buildings are going up at an unbelievable pace...

You can stand in one spot and see maybe three of them growing skyward under huge cranes...all within a few hundred yards of each other...it's stunning.

The future is being built here.... genetics, tech, the ultra-entitled women hehehe--apartments and houses I can't afford--but I know sour grapes when I see them, I'm getting high off my own supply.

Don't hope for an earthquake against those buildings..engineers from Berkeley and Caltech are smarter than us.. it's hard to get used to the fact that there are people who are a lot smarter than you... took me a long time here...

[Drazen]

I think the real estate bubble is about to pop again.

QE is ending in October and Interest rates HAVE to rise in the next few years. The problem is that even with near zero rates, people still aren't getting mortgages with more stringent requirements and housing is at record prices as people are trying to cash out now. The affordability index is out of wack, especially in Los Angeles which can only lead down to another correction. A lot of the sales are all cash people from China or "investors".

I noticed a very heightened number of "Open Houses" in my neighborhood today. It was noticeable as I tend to actually look for these. Signs were everywhere, the smart ones are trying to cash out now.

[Akula]

(08-25-2014 02:18 AM)Drazen Wrote:  

I think the real estate bubble is about to pop again.

QE is ending in October and Interest rates HAVE to rise in the next few years. The problem is that even with near zero rates, people still aren't getting mortgages with more stringent requirements and housing is at record prices as people are trying to cash out now. The affordability index is out of wack, especially in Los Angeles which can only lead down to another correction. A lot of the sales are all cash people from China or "investors".

I noticed a very heightened number of "Open Houses" in my neighborhood today. It was noticeable as I tend to actually look for these. Signs were everywhere, the smart ones are trying to cash out now.

Yellen said the first increase will come early next year. But a lot of smart hedge fund guys don't think it can really go up more than a token 50 bps - 1.5% maximum. Every percentage point jacks up the US cost of debt a ton now. They will keep massaging the numbers and solving for outcomes they want anyway. They just can't crush the housing and equity markets now by jacking up rates too high it will kill any growth we have. Also will hurt exports if the dollar strengthens too much.

Reality is there has been a ton more inflation in the things we need (fuel, food, rent/housing) over the past 5-6 years since the crisis but deflation in the things we want (flat screen TVs, cars (due to 0 interest loans), etc.)

[El Chinito loco]

(08-25-2014 02:18 AM)Drazen Wrote:  

I think the real estate bubble is about to pop again.

QE is ending in October and Interest rates HAVE to rise in the next few years. The problem is that even with near zero rates, people still aren't getting mortgages with more stringent requirements and housing is at record prices as people are trying to cash out now. The affordability index is out of wack, especially in Los Angeles which can only lead down to another correction. A lot of the sales are all cash people from China or "investors".

I noticed a very heightened number of "Open Houses" in my neighborhood today. It was noticeable as I tend to actually look for these. Signs were everywhere, the smart ones are trying to cash out now.

QE has done some rather fucked up things to the overall economy. It's created a bubble in the stock market, the bond market, and also in real estate. I wish I had a crystal ball that could tell me what would happen when you pull the QE support out from under all these things. It's possible we could see a devastating prolonged bear market, stagflation, and recession all rolled into one.

There's a lot of money out there chasing mediocre returns with out of whack risk valuation.

[Mujeriego]

(08-22-2014 04:34 AM)Feisbook Control Wrote:  

Victor Davis Hanson's writings on California are pretty interesting. It sounds like inland California is pretty dystopian, a world away from the coast or the north.

The central valley and other parts of inland CA aren't dystopian as much as they are just plain poor. A lot of things haven't changed since the Grapes of Wrath days with the exception of illegal Mexicans doing the labor intensive work instead of Okies. Madera, Fresno, Buttonwillow, etc are all pretty much the same thing: boring, dusty, poor, agriculture centered towns.