052: A global forecast for the next forty years
05-24-2014, 12:50 PM
The Future in Practice: The State of Sustainability Leadership 2012
Here´s a short version:
http://cms.unige.ch/isdd/IMG/pdf/jorgen_..._years.pdf
This is a study follows another study called "Limits of growth".
Both are related with the club of rome.
Here´s an excerpt:
"For those of you who doubt my central assumptions here, Figure 2 shows fertility in the EU15 over the past 50 years. When total
fertility falls below 2.1 children per woman, the population will decline in the long run, and this has been the case in the EU since 1970. Had
it not been for immigration, the population would have been declining. Extreme cases like Italy, for example, have had a fertility rate of
1.3 for decades. Italian women don’t want to have children because it’s difficult to combine children and a job in Italy; then, experience
shows, women overwhelmingly choose to have a job. So things are already developing along the lines of my forecast"
Here´s more:
"Bluntly speaking, short-termism in democracies and in capitalism will hinder a meaningful response. If we just decided to do something, it
could easily be done. The problem is not a lack of technology, nor the economic cost, but the way we have chosen to organise our societal
decision-making."
More:
Authoritarian regimes like China might succeed, that is, create employment in spite of the market;
Lastly:
"So what should we do about this sad story?
First, have fewer children, and that’s particularly important when you’re rich. I’ll repeat this: my daughter, who is 29 and Norwegian, is the most dangerous animal on the surface of the Earth. She consumes between 10–30 times as many resources and generates 10–30 times as much pollution as an Indian child. So, it’s much more important to have one less rich kid than it is to have 10–30 fewer Indians. I’m serious. Population control in the rich world should be the prime focus."
Club of Rome is an elite think tank which principles I think derive from Malthus.
Here´s a short version:
http://cms.unige.ch/isdd/IMG/pdf/jorgen_..._years.pdf
This is a study follows another study called "Limits of growth".
Both are related with the club of rome.
Here´s an excerpt:
"For those of you who doubt my central assumptions here, Figure 2 shows fertility in the EU15 over the past 50 years. When total
fertility falls below 2.1 children per woman, the population will decline in the long run, and this has been the case in the EU since 1970. Had
it not been for immigration, the population would have been declining. Extreme cases like Italy, for example, have had a fertility rate of
1.3 for decades. Italian women don’t want to have children because it’s difficult to combine children and a job in Italy; then, experience
shows, women overwhelmingly choose to have a job. So things are already developing along the lines of my forecast"
Here´s more:
"Bluntly speaking, short-termism in democracies and in capitalism will hinder a meaningful response. If we just decided to do something, it
could easily be done. The problem is not a lack of technology, nor the economic cost, but the way we have chosen to organise our societal
decision-making."
More:
Authoritarian regimes like China might succeed, that is, create employment in spite of the market;
Lastly:
"So what should we do about this sad story?
First, have fewer children, and that’s particularly important when you’re rich. I’ll repeat this: my daughter, who is 29 and Norwegian, is the most dangerous animal on the surface of the Earth. She consumes between 10–30 times as many resources and generates 10–30 times as much pollution as an Indian child. So, it’s much more important to have one less rich kid than it is to have 10–30 fewer Indians. I’m serious. Population control in the rich world should be the prime focus."
Club of Rome is an elite think tank which principles I think derive from Malthus.
