[Que enspastic]

Military has just seized power. I'm not surprised. Thailand's democracy is structurally unstable. Thaksin Shinawatra was deposed in a coup back in 2006 and now it's his sister's turn (seen as his mouthpiece) in 2014.

Historically the military has intervened to topple a shaky govt many times in Thai history. I believe this is the 18th time now since 1933. Worryingly it's also quite predictable that the Reds, mainly the urban poor and agrarian North/Northeast will feel outraged that their democratically elected Prime Minister and her govt can be overthrown, which no doubt appears to suit the elites and middle class of Bangkok.

This coup will precipitate mass rioting and bloodshed reminiscent of 2010. A curfew has been announced tonight for 10pm. Roads have been sealed.

Anyone in Thailand right now (or familiar with Thailand) ? What are your thoughts?

Http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27517591

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

Seems like a good time to bring out the "It's the end of the world, let's spend our last hours fucking like rabbits" game.

[Kdog]

I'm gonna walk to the 7-11 nearest my building in Bangkok at 10:30. Guarantee any troops will be napping by then anyway.

[El Chinito loco]

Thailand has never had a democracy it's always been a monarchy or "unofficial" monarchy. The whole modernization thing has always been classic cultural misdirection to draw in business investment. Thailand in general is still feudal in a lot of ways. This goes for culture or how the social hierarchy is shaped. The sooner you can come to that realization the sooner you understand what it means to be "Thai."

[Sp5]

I have one girlfriend who's yellow shirt, another one who's red shirt. The yellow shirt is a government manager, the red shirt is a widow from the northeast who runs her own business. I get comments from both of them on this.

Watching it from a distance, I tend towards the red shirt. Much of the charges against the Shinawatras seem to be trumped up. What they have done is spend money in the north, and this has stimulated economic growth there. Where Yingluck went wrong was in the incompetent rice purchase scheme, which broke the budget.

Plus, they won the elections, and the yellow shirts' complaint is that the masses voted the wrong way.

I don't think much will happen now. When "our King" goes (may he live long), that is when the real fights will start.

[Que enspastic]

I don't see any "solution".

Either the military stays in power and Thailand reverts back to autocracy.

Or they declare elections. In which case the Reds win again, as they will always do.

In which case the Yellows try to topple the govt again for being illegitimate/corrupt/incompetent.

It's all getting pretty predictable and cyclical now.

The game changer would be if the Yellows decide to acknowledge and respect the democratic system (which is never perfect) and make a concerted effort to win the agrarian vote. This would be a radical move and anathema to the business elites who dominate the Yellows as it would require a massive redistribution of wealth. Prior to Thaksin the peasant masses had nothing - no medicine, education, political representation etc.

The Yellows want stability but they also want business as usual in the capital. I don't believe they can have both. Someone above mentioned that Thailand represents a feudalistic class structure. This is true. Except now the peasants are aware that they have power and things will have to change if they are to be placated.

[Walderschmidt]

So how could this help me get more Thai pussy?

[Que enspastic]

^ Pay some Thai men to dress up in military gear and give them guns. Get them to round up all the hot girls they can find and have them escorted to your place.

[HungWeiLo]

I'm scheduled to be there at the end of July. I really dont want to change my ticket (it's an award and would cost a ton of miles to alter). Any opinions on the safety of Bangkok over the next few months? I can always grab some bottles from the duty free and have a personal party with some girls I meet in the hostel back at my hotel

[El Chinito loco]

Thai politics is honestly pretty boring and it's the same uber wealthy ratfuck families screwing over each other and everyone else. This constant cycle of military coups and tug of war with elite families has been going on for more than half a decade. The international media always acts surprised when protests or coups happen in Thailand. It's business as usual.

Nothing will change. I repeat. Nothing will change. Simply because there is no foresight or hindsight in Thai culture. People there live in the present and look out for #1 which is mainly themselves and their little familial tribe. In that order. This means if they can carve out a piece of the pie by burning the house down they will do it in a heartbeat.

However, Thailand bounces back from these things because the ignorant and largely inept populace is willing to pick up the pieces and kowtow to the elite who constantly fuck them over.

Like I said..same as it ever was and ever will be.

[Cattle Rustler]

Can't someone just kill the king?

It doesn't matter who gets voted in power, the king always seems to be in the middle of things. Not to mention the yellows want a absolute monarchy system like back in the day.

[Que enspastic]

^ El Chinito I don't think anyone will kowtow to the elite now. Yes large swathes of the population are ignorant but the genie is out of the bottle and things will have to change. The status quo is not acceptable to the Reds. See what happened last time Abhisit was in power. Reds blockaded Bangkok and set fire to CentralWorld until army shot them to pieces.

Real democracy is not acceptable to the Yellows. The Yellows will never win an election and will get smashed if Thai people are given a voice. Their only hope is either put in place a military dictatorship or try to compete in elections by changing their social policies to put much more emphasis on the millions of rural poor.

Which path do you see as more feasible?

[JJ Roberts]

Last time I was there is 2010 there was a military coup going on

[kdolo]

Its really ethnic.

The market dominant and Ethnically Chinese/descended/mix Thais control the country economically - cartel style - to the exclusion of the poorer less educated ethnic Thais...

If the Yellows allow "democracy", they will be outvoted all the time and there will be a redistribution of wealth - their wealth- but also, national resources to the ethnic Thais - in the name of "Social Justice".

As such, every time a Red wins, they are eventually accused of corruption (usually small time nonsense trumped up charges) and drummed out of office - but its always a set up to subvert democracy.

The Yellos - since they have the money - control the organs of power usually - courts, media, military, king, etc......

This can only eventually end a few ways.

1. -Yellos will have to allow Reds in - let they have a piece of the pie and a seat at the table - Massive Affirmative Action and more social spending
2. -Reds get pissed of enough and revolt wholesale and slaughter/expel./marginalize the Yellos - who they perceive as parasitic, arrogant, quasi alien over class.
3. - Yello yield political power but maintain economic power by cooptiong mainstream "conservative" Reds - see South Africa
4. -Yellos - use economic might and control of organs of power to permanently crush Reds into permanent subservience -

[Que enspastic]

^ You can't really slaughter a whole political class. It will just be more blockades and paralysis in urban centres with outbreaks of violence. If the army splits down the middle then you will see civil war. Until then, and as long as the army remains a cohesive force, you will see either democratic gridlock or martial rule.

You can't give away political power but maintain economic power. Political might means changes to economic policy.

You can't crush a peasant class into permanent subservience. With what army? Economically? How? They can live in a state of autarky, they produce the country's food, they can live off their land. Reds can do a lot more damage to Yellows than vice versa. They can fuck up Bangkok and bring trading/tourism to a halt causing crippling financial damage to an entire country.

[El Chinito loco]

(05-22-2014 01:42 PM)Que enspastic Wrote:  

^ El Chinito I don't think anyone will kowtow to the elite now. Yes large swathes of the population are ignorant but the genie is out of the bottle and things will have to change. The status quo is not acceptable to the Reds. See what happened last time Abhisit was in power. Reds blockaded Bangkok and set fire to CentralWorld until army shot them to pieces.

Here's the problem I see.. The red and yellow political parties are all controlled by the elite. It's not a simple ethnic division like some people assume it is. It's much more complex than that and more like a power struggle between old and new money. There are Bangkok families who have been rich and in power for several generations now with honorary titles and shit. These people are "old" money and will do everything to protect it and the feudal lifestyle they've grown accustomed to.

People are literally paid to protest on both sides and vote buying is rampant everywhere. There is no democracy on either side. The institution is just broken in Thailand with no hope of being repaired anytime soon.

Quote:

Real democracy is not acceptable to the Yellows. The Yellows will never win an election and will get smashed if Thai people are given a voice. Their only hope is either put in place a military dictatorship or try to compete in elections by changing their social policies to put much more emphasis on the millions of rural poor.

Which path do you see as more feasible?

The problem is that any honest social policy in the rural areas will never compete with the massive scale of corruption (ie. vote buying) and racketeering programs (rice program) that go on in the rural areas. This would require Thai politicians and the culture in general to enact mass change and I don't see that as a possibility anytime within the next 100 years.

I was in Thailand during the 2006 coup, then happened to be there again when the yellow shirt dicks closed down the airport around 2008 and again in 2010 when the reds were burning centralworld down.

There is simply no personal responsibility. People can do whatever they want and get away with it as long as they hold the bigger stick at the moment.

[DirectDanger]

Don't worry to much about it. I would not change your trip.

Unless they do something crazy like in 2008 when the Yellow shirts closed the BKK airport for a week it should not affect your life to much. You can always go south to the islands or north to Chiang Mai and you wouldn't have a clue anything was going on.

(05-22-2014 11:44 AM)HungWeiLo Wrote:  

I'm scheduled to be there at the end of July. I really dont want to change my ticket (it's an award and would cost a ton of miles to alter). Any opinions on the safety of Bangkok over the next few months? I can always grab some bottles from the duty free and have a personal party with some girls I meet in the hostel back at my hotel

[Global Entry]

I'm supposed to go there imminently (I should have been there right now but I went to the USA for a client unexpectedly). I'm going with my gal, though, so I don't much care about the curfew for this trip. Any thoughts about issues arising out of coming over the next three weeks?

[Peregrine]

Just bought a ticket to Bangkok for November. Will be interested to see how this all plays out.

[VeniVidiVici]

Currently in krabi town in southern Thailand. Streets were very empty last night only one bar in town stayed open. We were there until around midnight when the cops came by and told everyone to go home. Looks like even way in the south it's being enforced. Curious to see how long it lasts.

[iop890]

(05-22-2014 06:41 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

Seems like a good time to bring out the "It's the end of the world, let's spend our last hours fucking like rabbits" game.

More like "Oh hey, is it curfew already? Guess you'll have to sleep at my place." game.

(05-22-2014 01:41 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  

Can't someone just kill the king?

It doesn't matter who gets voted in power, the king always seems to be in the middle of things. Not to mention the yellows want a absolute monarchy system like back in the day.

When this king dies Thailand is gonna turn into Game of Thrones. Mutual respect for this king is what keeps both sides somewhat restrained. And his son will almost certainly be a disaster.

[iop890]

delete

[VincentVinturi]

Coup shmou.

[Sp5]

Glad to see The General invited Yingluck to talk. Recognition of the real political power of Pheu Thai and those voters in the northeast.

[Beyond Borders]

(05-22-2014 10:52 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  

Just bought a ticket to Bangkok for November. Will be interested to see how this all plays out.

This will be old old history by November. Won't even be a conversation.

Mark my words.