Quote: (05-20-2014 05:46 PM)rottenapple Wrote:
I'll be following this post for World Cup betting! I already started heavy analysing the teams, the players, etc. and I made a fb group where I invite international friends (have almost atleast one from every participating country who is into football) from the countries to give local knowledge and expectations about their teams. Let's discuss strategies closer to date, as many things can still change.
For the CL finale, I wouldn't bet on Real with that rate.
Send me a PM with the link, I'm interested in this group. Can help with Switzerland, don't live there anymore but I'm from there and follow all the football very closely.
Anyways, this is going to be an incredibly difficult WC to call. All of the favorites have glaring weaknesses.
For me though, I still like Spain to get an unprecedented 4th major trophy in a row. The main criticism against them seems to be an aging squad - I disagree though, while some of the stalwarts have aged, they have a good blend of youth, and the real kicker for me is that they finally have a striker again in Diego Costa, so who knows how good they could be.
Other teams I like...
Belgium - Incredibly deep team, as good as it gets really. Experience and conditions could cause concerns, fullback is a bit of a worrisome position as well, but just an incredibly talented team that also seem to have a great camaraderie.
France - One of the most well balanced teams, they are stacked in goal, defense, midfield, and attack. I think they've learned their lessons and could be real threats. Wouldn't have the toughest ever path to the final, either.
Colombia - Big blow with the news that Falcao is missing, but their attack is still loaded with quality and they have a tight defense as well. Suited to the conditions and had no problems in qualifying.
Chile - Also suited to the conditions, and just a brilliant team to watch. Tend to tear teams apart, they are just so good going forwards. Last WC the defensive side killed them, but now the manager has kept Bielsa's attacking play but added some defensive solidity. Watch out.
I have 0.4x of a normal bet on all of those teams (Spain, Belgium, France, Colombia, Chile)...mainly just to hedge off, but I think all could go very far.
I also have 0.2x on the following longer shots, but again, all have real potential.
Switzerland 155/1 - Very solid team with a fantastic manager. Airtight defense (saw what they did to Spain last WC), industrious midfield, players that can make things happen going forward. Handling pressure/not choking will be what it comes down to.
Mexico 170/1 - Underrated after going through 4 managers in qualifying. Now they finally have one that has the team playing the way they can, and they can be very, very good. Montes injury is a bad break but still, the odds are ridiculous.
Croatia 210/1 - Extremely similar situation to Mexico (oddly enough in the same group)...terrible manager through qualifying, pick up a competent one right at the end - underrated as a result. A midfield of Modric, Rakitic, and Kovacic at 210/1?
Japan 230/1 - Most insane odds of the tournament. Not only do they have quality players and a manager that knows how to win, but they play excellent football. The Japanese all have fantastic technique, touch, etc. Just look at the goal they scored vs the Netherlands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlOrPzpSJTA
Teams I don't think will do well:
Brazil - Not even because of the pressure, simply because I don't think their team is very good. You look down the squad list and it's very uninspiring, all the weight will land on Neymar's shoulders. Not a fan of Scolari either.
Argentina - Another favorite. Yeah their attack is outstanding but Argentina have struggled to put it together in the past years, why would that change now? More importantly, their defense is extremely suspect and their midfield is not good enough to win a World Cup.
Germany - Excellent team, and they may go far, but if you ask me they are completely lacking a striker. Schurrle, Mueller, Podolski, Klose, etc...just not good enough. They weren't able to win a trophy with better strikers in the past years, why does that change now?
Netherlands - Extremely weak side compared to the 2010 finalist side. The stars have aged, the young players aren't good enough yet. LVG is going to United afterwards, so focus is a doubt. Their qualifying record was excellent but in a poor group, and I just don't see them going anywhere.
Also, not favorites or anything, but think Ecuador might struggle bigtime. They have a terrible record when they aren't playing in Ecuador, only got 3 points in all of qualifying away from home. Obviously they won't be at home in Brazil. Don't think the team is that great either, especially having tragically lost their striking talisman in Chucho (RIP). They're about 6/1 to finish bottom of the group last I checked, might be worth a poke.
I'll make sure to post my picks when the WC starts.