[Samseau]

(01-11-2011 05:07 PM)truedat Wrote:  

I think Mystic is right. When the Euro goes, the dollar will be right behind it and in a matter of weeks. BTW, they are both done already its just a delayed reaction though market/bond manipulations. Gas will be 5-7 dollars in the next 12 months, and food cost are rising every month. Not because prices are going up, but because the dollar is going down. PHYSICAL gold and silver. I buy US eagles because I think they will have additional 'collector' value after the collapse. Its kind of a memento of a once great empire. Sad but true.

(01-11-2011 11:31 PM)MysticTraveler Wrote:  

(01-11-2011 05:07 PM)truedat Wrote:  

I think Mystic is right. When the Euro goes, the dollar will be right behind it and in a matter of weeks.

It could also be the other way around. When the Euro goes then the dollar will be seen as the world currency and its value could appreciate significantly. This is what pisses me off about Economics, there are always two opposing forces and you are never right. I don't think that we will see a dollar collapse this year. If I were a Martian observing Earth's economic activities then I would wonder why the Euro is still around after all that has been happening. They recently introduced the Euro in Estonia, in mean WTF?

If the Euro goes down, it would bring down the world financial system. The USA is exposed to a lot of European debt; for them to go down would escalate the USA's debt issues.

Therefore, the USA will not let the Euro go down. The Fed will bailout the IMF which will bailout the Euro.

I predict that the USA will tiedown all world debt into the dollar, because it will place us in control of the inflation, and therefore, in control of the world. We will ensure that everyone else suffer's before we do. We will probably be the least harmed by the ensuing collapse as well.

[Samseau]

(01-12-2011 02:33 AM)Irminsul Wrote:  

I see too many ads on TV selling gold. Like those ones with the old British woman who says "if you could have $x in cash, or $x in gold, but you couldn't spend it for five years, which would you choose?" The implication is that you should take the gold because it will go up over the next five years, relative to the dollar. But SHE (or her company) has gold, and is trying to get cash for it - right? Who is the sucker in this trade?

They sell anywhere 1% to 10% above the spot price. They make good profits to buy more gold with.

Quote:

I think all the "dollar's gonna go into hyperinflation!" talk is just a big scam to get people to buy gold at ridiculously inflated prices. People like Glenn Beck, who promote this stuff, always have ads on their programs selling gold. Makes me think the dollar will go up in the near term (5 years or so). After that, who knows. The current system may be unsustainable long term but I wouldn't be too worried for the foreseeable future.

If you think the gold prices are inflated now, wait till you see them 1yr from now. And still they will go higher years into the future.

As long as the government continues to "monetize" our debt, gold/silver will continue to rise. Pretty ez to figure out man.

[Samseau]

(01-12-2011 09:48 AM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

(01-11-2011 05:07 PM)truedat Wrote:  

I think Mystic is right. When the Euro goes, the dollar will be right behind it and in a matter of weeks. BTW, they are both done already its just a delayed reaction though market/bond manipulations. Gas will be 5-7 dollars in the next 12 months, and food cost are rising every month. Not because prices are going up, but because the dollar is going down. PHYSICAL gold and silver. I buy US eagles because I think they will have additional 'collector' value after the collapse. Its kind of a memento of a once great empire. Sad but true.

Well said and manipulation being the key word. I see you know what you are talking about and I too buy the silver eagles as well, that is the only real hard currency out there these days. I missed the gold rush, in 2005 I was told to buy it at $400 oz and I did not.

Technically, the dollar is sinking everyday because the price of goods are increasing at a rapid rate and your buying power is decreasing.

China will pull the plug on America soon, Japan is too busy trying to stay afloat. The Chinese are not stupid, they will get tired of supporting the US debt.

(01-12-2011 02:01 PM)rumguzzler Wrote:  

The chinks won't do it.

They are going to try and slither their way out of it, but there will be no crash of the dollar. They have enormous assets tied up in dollars. Were the dollar to crash, they'd lose a fortune, and their economy would be destroyed.

The Chinese are actually in a curious bind right now. By pegging the Renembi to the dollar, the Chinese mirror our inflation. So right now, they do us a favor and keep the prices of goods in america down by taking our worthless currency in exchange for tangible goods.

There are two sets of classes that profit from inflation: those who control the printing presses (the gov), and those who are directly connected with the gov.

Therefore, why would the Chinese de-peg their currency from the dollar? Chinese bureaucrats are more power hungry than nearly anyone else in the world; by keeping their inflation to match the USA, they profit.

On the other hand, those who suffer most from inflation - the proles who do all the labor - might start to get pissed off from all the wealthy people in China next to their poor and starving workers on the street. Considering that the workers in China are a HUGE class, should these guys get pissed off enough to throw a real communist revolution, they will de-peg the renembi and American inflation will go through the roof.


In other words:

current chinese gov stays in power = slow american inflation
current chinese gov gets overthrown by 250 million angry peasents = fast american inflation

[Samseau]

(01-12-2011 11:39 AM)YoungGunner Wrote:  

(01-09-2011 08:32 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(01-07-2011 04:53 PM)LÉtranger Wrote:  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3u2qRXb4xCU

Thanks for the great link. This guy has an amazing voice.

(01-07-2011 06:58 PM)phoenix abroad Wrote:  

Hyperinflation is certainly a significant possibility, but keep in mind that other countries (China) are still playing along with the USA's inflate-or-die game. If this changes though the USA is probably fucked.

China will continue to play this game until we are sucked dry. Once there's no more fun in fucking America, they will move to a new partner.

(01-08-2011 06:31 PM)DanteRizad Wrote:  

I always wanted to at least learn a foreign language and do business, traveling back and forth. But with the economy, I plan on completely expatriating. sooner rather than later.

(01-09-2011 12:25 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

If you are smart you should be packing your bags. Living overseas has never looked so attractive, the USA will implode financially.

The problem with expatriation is there's no way to tell what other countries will be good/bad to expatriate to. This is because it's anyone's guess as to how the rest of the world will fare once America loses its hegemony.

Take, for example, India and South Africa. When Britain ruled the world, both places were thriving up-and-coming hotspots to be a Westerner. Once Britain lost everything after WW2, however, both become shitholes.

The most obvious choice to move to, at least financially, is China... but, do you really want to live in China? Seems like an awful, soul-sucking culture to me.

One decent place in terms of the culture/economy may be Brazil... but it's still anyone's guess.

(01-08-2011 07:24 PM)YoungGunner Wrote:  

Don't know about hyperinflation but its definitely gonna get worse over the next two years. My solution, convert American funds into yen and euro.

Using other currencies is a good idea, but converting to the Euro or the Yen is a terrible idea. The Euro is experiencing one debt crisis after another: first it was Greece, then Ireland, and already Portugal's bond yields are increasing. Europe is going belly up like the USA.

The same goes for Japan, which is twice as indebted as the USA.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-p...-collapses

In fact, Japan is so fucked, it looks like are about to experience something worse than Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. I wouldn't be surprised if China just decides to invade them once they go under.


If you want to invest in other currencies besides Gold/Silver, then I would recommend the swiss franc, which has performed PHENOMENALLY.

http://tinyurl.com/2ccu59p
(be sure to look at the 1yr, 5yr views)

Sorry I meant to say my solution was converting to Yen and Euro last year but now I see that plan's gone down the toilet. The exchange rate from Yen to dollar was high in November but since both currencies/countries are imploding that seems like a pretty bade idea. I've heard Australia and New Zealand and Canada are pretty safe bets, you agree?

I think Canada is also a safe choice, alongside the Swiss franc. New Zealand and Aussieland, not so much.

If we look at the Aussies:
http://tinyurl.com/4pm2cuy

and the kiwi's:
http://tinyurl.com/4rng7g3

We see that, back during the 2008 crash, their currencies devauled over 40%. Their economies are too small to weather any financial storm.

However, for the CHF:
http://tinyurl.com/2ccu59p

and Canuks:
http://tinyurl.com/4mwhuj4

They each only devauled about 20% each, indicating that they are able to withstand shocks to the world financial system. Canada probably because they have a pretty big economy based on solid fundamentals, even if they are too socialist for their own good, and Switzerland because most of the world's rich park their money inside of Swiss banks. The Swiss also sit on a huge pile of gold.

[truedat]

Samseau I think you dont understand the endgame. Right now there is a rush to the bottom with all currencies (except the Swiss Franc) printing like crazy to devalue and stay competitive. Ultimately the reason is to DESTROY all currencies so there is a single currency that will probably be digital (one currency = centralized control over who lives and dies). Why do you think they combined a bunch or countries monetarily like the EU? Basically so they could easily all be destroyed at the same time. In case you dont know it, 99% of the worlds 'central banks' are actually private. These 'private shareholders' are trillionaires that you will never see on the Forbes worlds richest people list.

Whats left after obscene wealth? Power and control, and America and the EU must be brought down in order for them to have it all. Anyways EU first, then the dollar. Thats my bet.

[Kona]

(01-09-2011 09:43 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

Out of your 23 emails, scan through them all and pick the one icehead who looks the least problematic, and take them in. As stated in the original post, our inflationary problems should only continue to grow, so according to the best economic logic, these government vouchers will make you very wealthy.

Fa'afetai for the excellent info, Mr. Seau. I think we've already covered that you are not one Sole'. However if you were, you could be the Minister Of Finance, or Bradduh Runnin' Da Kala, or whatever the title may be in Samoa!

I took your advice. I rented my ghettoist of houses to a single mother with a $850 voucher. The rest of the rent she'll cover with the cash. It will be in ones BECAUSE SHE'S A STRIPPER!!! On top of that I get a major property tax break from Honolulu City and County.

I read up on the vouchers, and talked to a lawyer. What's going on with this house, is that the government is paying my mortgage, plus $300 to house this lovely young lady, her bastard child, and their rottweiler. (Honolulu County has a program to provide pet food reimbursements to the less fortunate dog owners.) We all know where the mortgage money came from. This is such a screwjob scenario I don't even want to think about it. But thanks again.

(01-09-2011 09:43 PM)JimKirk Wrote:  

I have cases going on regarding vouchers - evidently the newest form of illegal discriminaton is now called 'source of income' discrimination - I dont know if this has hit yet in Hawaii but in the 5 boroughs of NYC its grounds for a federal lawsuit now if you refuse to rent to someone because they pay with a voucher

My lawyer told me to write back to all of the people that I absolutely take vouchers, but the property has yet to be inspected for them, and it has unfortunately been rented in the meanwhile. I told them I'd keep their info on file, and mahalo for the interest.

There are so many fucked up details to this voucher thing, I can't imagine how outrageously abused something like this has to be in NYC, where it's on such a larger scale.

I've never heard of the income discrimination, but I'll probably get sued for it one of these days. The Legal Aid Society has come after me several times now for various bullshit. The last time the free lawyers sued me it was over a guys security deposit. I clearly violated a number of laws. The attorney who represented me a little rose tattoo in the tramp stamp area, and a tongue ring. Great little Island/Japanese ass too. I think she wound up recovering about 4k in fees from the "Society". I took her to a retaurant to celebrate that victory and she blew me in the bathroom.

Mainland laws were not written for Hawaii, so the courts out here are a whole other deal. Every time I've been up for something, I've really gotten the impression that the right and wrong for outweigh the printed statutes. This is an island with a small number of lawyers. Jim Kirk, you could probably run circles around most of these folks. Most people involved in the legal business out here went to University of Hawaii Law School, and I always wonder what mainland lawyers would think of the way things work out here. You should check it out.

And also, mahalo for the advice.

Aloha!

[MysticTraveler]

(01-12-2011 04:17 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

If the Euro goes down, it would bring down the world financial system. The USA is exposed to a lot of European debt; for them to go down would escalate the USA's debt issues.

Therefore, the USA will not let the Euro go down. The Fed will bailout the IMF which will bailout the Euro.

I predict that the USA will tiedown all world debt into the dollar, because it will place us in control of the inflation, and therefore, in control of the world. We will ensure that everyone else suffer's before we do. We will probably be the least harmed by the ensuing collapse as well.

Hmm...good insight! I never thought about it this way.

Samseau, What is your long term analysis of the Brazilian Economy and where it will stand if the world financial system does go down?

[phoenix abroad]

(01-12-2011 04:17 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

If the Euro goes down, it would bring down the world financial system. The USA is exposed to a lot of European debt; for them to go down would escalate the USA's debt issues.

Therefore, the USA will not let the Euro go down. The Fed will bailout the IMF which will bailout the Euro.

I predict that the USA will tiedown all world debt into the dollar, because it will place us in control of the inflation, and therefore, in control of the world. We will ensure that everyone else suffer's before we do. We will probably be the least harmed by the ensuing collapse as well.

If any sizeable country goes under it is a severe risk to the whole system as fragile as it is. Knock one domino down and they all follow.

The world is in this together. It is (for now) in every country's best interests to agree with the money printing games the US is playing.

No politician is going to decrease benefits or *gasp* raise taxes to pay off the national debt, it would be political suicide. We want all of these programs without having to pay for them, and we have managed to put it off this far.

It is human nature - we will collectively kick the can down the road until we can't anymore. When will the music stop? Who knows? It could be 10 years from now or 10 days from now.

[Irminsul]

(01-12-2011 08:48 AM)MysticTraveler Wrote:  

(01-12-2011 02:33 AM)Irminsul Wrote:  

I see too many ads on TV selling gold. Like those ones with the old British woman who says "if you could have $x in cash, or $x in gold, but you couldn't spend it for five years, which would you choose?" The implication is that you should take the gold because it will go up over the next five years, relative to the dollar. But SHE (or her company) has gold, and is trying to get cash for it - right? Who is the sucker in this trade?

I think all the "dollar's gonna go into hyperinflation!" talk is just a big scam to get people to buy gold at ridiculously inflated prices. People like Glenn Beck, who promote this stuff, always have ads on their programs selling gold. Makes me think the dollar will go up in the near term (5 years or so). After that, who knows. The current system may be unsustainable long term but I wouldn't be too worried for the foreseeable future.

Yeah, she is selling gold at a mark-up and making profits. Do you know what she is investing it in? Maybe she is investing the money in gold mining stocks which are a way of leveraging your money without entering into a derivatives contract.

Yeah, okay, I guess that's possible that they're selling physical gold to buy mining stocks, but it strikes me as unlikely. It also strikes me as unlikely that Glenn Beck viewers are the smart money in this trade. Honestly, I was pretty into the whole hyperinflation and end of the world stuff myself a few years ago, but now I think it's mainly just hype. Well, maybe I'm wrong, and when the shit hits the fan I'll be wishing I'd put my money in gold, guns, and crates of spam. We'll see.

[Samseau]

(01-12-2011 06:20 PM)truedat Wrote:  

Samseau I think you dont understand the endgame. Right now there is a rush to the bottom with all currencies (except the Swiss Franc) printing like crazy to devalue and stay competitive. Ultimately the reason is to DESTROY all currencies so there is a single currency that will probably be digital (one currency = centralized control over who lives and dies). Why do you think they combined a bunch or countries monetarily like the EU? Basically so they could easily all be destroyed at the same time. In case you dont know it, 99% of the worlds 'central banks' are actually private. These 'private shareholders' are trillionaires that you will never see on the Forbes worlds richest people list.

Whats left after obscene wealth? Power and control, and America and the EU must be brought down in order for them to have it all. Anyways EU first, then the dollar. Thats my bet.

The endgame? It's already being openly discussed.

I used to believe conspiracy theories were just bullshit, but when guys in control, like Soros, are talking about the NWO, you know the shit's in the pipeline. Give it 20 years.

Still, this endgame isn't the end of anything except the current political sphere as we know it. It's actually the start of something new; a world where oligarchies rule. A reversion to the norm.

Since we have no idea what the new political order will look like, there's no way to prepare for the coming change. That's why I haven't brought it up yet in this thread. Talking about what the NWO will look like is like talking about North America's climate will be in 100 years.

If you are really into this kind of speculation, however, may I recommend Daemon Vrabel and his blog.

(01-12-2011 06:56 PM)Kona Wrote:  

(01-09-2011 09:43 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

Out of your 23 emails, scan through them all and pick the one icehead who looks the least problematic, and take them in. As stated in the original post, our inflationary problems should only continue to grow, so according to the best economic logic, these government vouchers will make you very wealthy.

Fa'afetai for the excellent info, Mr. Seau. I think we've already covered that you are not one Sole'. However if you were, you could be the Minister Of Finance, or Bradduh Runnin' Da Kala, or whatever the title may be in Samoa!

lmao... no probs dude. Glad I could help

Quote:

I took your advice. I rented my ghettoist of houses to a single mother with a $850 voucher. The rest of the rent she'll cover with the cash. It will be in ones BECAUSE SHE'S A STRIPPER!!! On top of that I get a major property tax break from Honolulu City and County.

Is she cute? At least you know that if she can't make rent, you can always pimp her out.

Quote:

I read up on the vouchers, and talked to a lawyer. What's going on with this house, is that the government is paying my mortgage, plus $300 to house this lovely young lady, her bastard child, and their rottweiler. (Honolulu County has a program to provide pet food reimbursements to the less fortunate dog owners.) We all know where the mortgage money came from. This is such a screwjob scenario I don't even want to think about it. But thanks again.

I'm just proud to be an American.

(01-13-2011 12:07 AM)MysticTraveler Wrote:  

(01-12-2011 04:17 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

If the Euro goes down, it would bring down the world financial system. The USA is exposed to a lot of European debt; for them to go down would escalate the USA's debt issues.

Therefore, the USA will not let the Euro go down. The Fed will bailout the IMF which will bailout the Euro.

I predict that the USA will tiedown all world debt into the dollar, because it will place us in control of the inflation, and therefore, in control of the world. We will ensure that everyone else suffer's before we do. We will probably be the least harmed by the ensuing collapse as well.

Hmm...good insight! I never thought about it this way.

Samseau, What is your long term analysis of the Brazilian Economy and where it will stand if the world financial system does go down?

Fuck if I know. I wonder: Will Brazil be consumed by whatever new order results from the coming upheaval, or will they be sufficiently contained from the global banking system, due to low levels of debt, and have enough economic freedom to become rich? But this last political question is always up in the air; it could answered best by someone who lives in Brazil.

If you reside there, what do you think? Are things becoming more or less hostile to businesses there?

(01-13-2011 03:35 AM)phoenix abroad Wrote:  

(01-12-2011 04:17 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

If the Euro goes down, it would bring down the world financial system. The USA is exposed to a lot of European debt; for them to go down would escalate the USA's debt issues.

Therefore, the USA will not let the Euro go down. The Fed will bailout the IMF which will bailout the Euro.

I predict that the USA will tiedown all world debt into the dollar, because it will place us in control of the inflation, and therefore, in control of the world. We will ensure that everyone else suffer's before we do. We will probably be the least harmed by the ensuing collapse as well.

If any sizeable country goes under it is a severe risk to the whole system as fragile as it is. Knock one domino down and they all follow.

The world is in this together. It is (for now) in every country's best interests to agree with the money printing games the US is playing.

No politician is going to decrease benefits or *gasp* raise taxes to pay off the national debt, it would be political suicide. We want all of these programs without having to pay for them, and we have managed to put it off this far.

It is human nature - we will collectively kick the can down the road until we can't anymore. When will the music stop? Who knows? It could be 10 years from now or 10 days from now.

It's amazing that the entire world decided to hop on board the USA's runaway inflation train. If the world would have just endured a few years of pain back in 2008, they would have becoming a thriving economy based on fundamentals while the rest of the world rode an inflationary bubble.

But, then again, it's not that surprising. Historically, how many governments have allowed a free market?

[Mystik]

This guy predicts a collapse in fall this year. Anyone here good at technical analysis and can understand what this guy is doing to make these predictions?

http://goldscents.blogspot.com/

@samseau: I don't live in Brazil but was planning to shift there. I live in India and I can say that the govt here is loosing its mind.

[phoenix abroad]

(01-17-2011 12:23 PM)Mystik Wrote:  

This guy predicts a collapse in fall this year. Anyone here good at technical analysis and can understand what this guy is doing to make these predictions?

http://goldscents.blogspot.com/

@samseau: I don't live in Brazil but was planning to shift there. I live in India and I can say that the govt here is loosing its mind.

I think that site has some good analysis and is similar to my own ideas about where the market is headed. However, technical analysis is a windsock and not a road map. I learned that the hard way.

No one really knows if/when a collapse will come, they can just point to a few potential warning signs ahead of time. But keep in mind that these are often the same guys who said that 2010 was the year the market was going to fall apart and then the market rallied hard making them look real dumb. Sooner or later they might be right, but it could be a while off, who knows?

[Mystik]

(01-19-2011 01:13 AM)phoenix abroad Wrote:  

I think that site has some good analysis and is similar to my own ideas about where the market is headed. However, technical analysis is a windsock and not a road map. I learned that the hard way.

No one really knows if/when a collapse will come, they can just point to a few potential warning signs ahead of time. But keep in mind that these are often the same guys who said that 2010 was the year the market was going to fall apart and then the market rallied hard making them look real dumb. Sooner or later they might be right, but it could be a while off, who knows?

Yeah, I guess you are right. I really don't know the kind of model this guy is using. But it can be very hard to make the kind of prediction he is making. Moreover, he predicted a mini-crash of the dollar in December last year but that did not happen. Maybe he is just using this as a scare tactic to make more money. Who knows? As you said these are the same guys who have been talking about the end of the financial system since the year 2000.

I should listen to my own advice and just forget about predicting the exact time of the crash. I am outta here.

[rudebwoy]

China devalues US dollar by 30%
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-d...y-holdings

[kerouac]

(01-21-2011 01:39 AM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

China devalues US dollar by 30%
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-d...y-holdings

The US has been fighting for this for the past few years if you have been paying attention to the news! The US has been fucked over the last few years because of the trade imbalance (because China has been keeping its currency cheap). If anything, this is good news for the US economy!

[Samseau]

(01-21-2011 02:29 PM)kerouac Wrote:  

(01-21-2011 01:39 AM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

China devalues US dollar by 30%
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-d...y-holdings

The US has been fighting for this for the past few years if you have been paying attention to the news! The US has been fucked over the last few years because of the trade imbalance (because China has been keeping its currency cheap). If anything, this is good news for the US economy!

Why is it good news that Chinese products (most of what you buy) now cost 30% more? Congrats, American's are poorer.

[kerouac]

(01-26-2011 09:33 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

Why is it good news that Chinese products (most of what you buy) now cost 30% more? Congrats, American's are poorer.

Stop jumping to such hasty conclusions.

Look at it broadly... If Chinese products are going to cost 30% more, now American rival products are going to have a better chance competing against the Chinese made shit.

How is this going to help out the American economy? ... if you're still asking this I don't understand how someone so uninformed in economics can pop up words like Hyperinflation... It means more jobs! More possibilities! Decreasing the trade deficit! Among other things.

[Samseau]

(01-27-2011 01:13 PM)kerouac Wrote:  

(01-26-2011 09:33 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

Why is it good news that Chinese products (most of what you buy) now cost 30% more? Congrats, American's are poorer.

Stop jumping to such hasty conclusions.

Look at it broadly... If Chinese products are going to cost 30% more, now American rival products are going to have a better chance competing against the Chinese made shit.

How is this going to help out the American economy? ... if you're still asking this I don't understand how someone so uninformed in economics can pop up words like Hyperinflation... It means more jobs! More possibilities! Decreasing the trade deficit! Among other things.

You seem to believe that if we devalue our currency that Americans will be better off. Not true. It only means that the debtors will be richer and the savers will be poorer.

Being able to sell American made products to other countries isn't going to fix our economic woes. The new jobs created will be paid in a devalued currency meaning each new job created through currency debasement is a nation that is overall poorer. A shitty trade.

Moreover, the jobs produced will only be to mega corporations that hire far fewer workers per unit produced than a small business would.

For America to actually develop a strong middle class there must be easier ways for the average guy to start his own business. In this country, where excessive regulation, legal and employment fees are thicker than Oprah's waistline, smaller businesses are unfairly punished while rich corporations have few problems. This is the real cause of unemployment. China is just a scapegoat.

[Pepini]

(01-28-2011 03:13 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(01-27-2011 01:13 PM)kerouac Wrote:  

(01-26-2011 09:33 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

Why is it good news that Chinese products (most of what you buy) now cost 30% more? Congrats, American's are poorer.

Stop jumping to such hasty conclusions.

Look at it broadly... If Chinese products are going to cost 30% more, now American rival products are going to have a better chance competing against the Chinese made shit.

How is this going to help out the American economy? ... if you're still asking this I don't understand how someone so uninformed in economics can pop up words like Hyperinflation... It means more jobs! More possibilities! Decreasing the trade deficit! Among other things.

You seem to believe that if we devalue our currency that Americans will be better off. Not true. It only means that the debtors will be richer and the savers will be poorer.

Being able to sell American made products to other countries isn't going to fix our economic woes. The new jobs created will be paid in a devalued currency meaning each new job created through currency debasement is a nation that is overall poorer. A shitty trade.

Moreover, the jobs produced will only be to mega corporations that hire far fewer workers per unit produced than a small business would.

For America to actually develop a strong middle class there must be easier ways for the average guy to start his own business. In this country, where excessive regulation, legal and employment fees are thicker than Oprah's waistline, smaller businesses are unfairly punished while rich corporations have few problems. This is the real cause of unemployment. China is just a scapegoat.

The devaluation of the currency will make american imports expensive and exports cheaper. It will also mean that the US debt will be smaller.
US are winning the currency war.

[manilaguy]

(01-05-2011 01:41 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

1. The US Gov. will never reform its massive entitlement programs.

2. It will print more money to pay for its expenses.

3. The inflation of our money supply has an exponential destruction of our currency.

4. A general depression in the USA deflates physical assets

5. Increase rates

Can anyone dispute any one of the 5 points listed above?

1. It will reform its taxation policy to cover expenses. (bush tax cuts)
2. It will force other countries to buy its bonds, instead of printing. (the modern way to finance a republic)
3. #2 negates this
4. We do not use gold standard or peg monetary value to physical assets.
5. Interest rate rationalizations are too speculative.

caveat: I come from a third world economy now i'm a white collar making my living in a first world economy, so I am biased towards the strength of the US republic! (and to the fact that my investments hedges upon a wide Peso to $ ratio)

[manilaguy]

Also, consider that this issue cannot be completely analyzed in an economic framework. Consider that we have the most powerful standing army in the entire world, and thus have a leverage of physical force.

China, or any other country, will not dare put their interests above American interest, because their interest is American interest.

"I'll make you an offer you can't refuse"

hegemony!!!!

[Samseau]

(02-02-2011 06:40 PM)manilaguy Wrote:  

(01-05-2011 01:41 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

1. The US Gov. will never reform its massive entitlement programs.
2. It will print more money to pay for its expenses.
3. The inflation of our money supply has an exponential destruction of our currency.
4. A general depression in the USA deflates physical assets
5. Increase rates

Can anyone dispute any one of the 5 points listed above?

1. It will reform its taxation policy to cover expenses.
2. It will not print. It will force other countries to buy its bonds.
3. If #2 happens this will not happen
4. We do not use gold standard or peg monetary value to physical assets
5. Treasury's main obligation is to fight hyperinflation

1. Increasing taxes enough to cover our expenses will be a major drain on the economy, resulting in a depression that will last for at least a decade. Do you think the people would tolerate that, or vote in morons promising "no new taxes"?
2. We can't force other countries to buy our bonds unless we threaten them with force. We aren't going to do that. Right now the biggest USA bondholder is the Fed, which shows that when other countries stop buying, we are forced to pick up the slack (buying our own debt... truly retarded). We aren't going to try and start a world-war. Not profitable.
4. What do you mean here? A Gold standard has nothing to do with anything. Many assets (houses, cars, industrial production, farmland) is experiencing a slow depression at the same time we are inflating the values of basic foodstuff items. Switching to a gold standard would solve no problems.
If you mean that the general deflation of American asset values will have no effect on our currency, then you are wrong.
5. They fight inflation by printing money?

(02-02-2011 06:41 PM)manilaguy Wrote:  

Also, consider that this issue cannot be completely analyzed in an economic framework. Consider that we have the most powerful standing army in the entire world, and thus have a leverage of physical force.

China, or any other country, will not dare put their interests above American interest, because their interest is American interest.

"I'll make you an offer you can't refuse"

hegemony!!!!

I have no idea what will happen as a result of this inflation. We are just starting to see the effects of inflation when we look at egypt. The issue of inflation can only be discussed in an economic framework because inflation is entirely dictated by how much new money is created.

Our military isn't going to count for shit if people are starving and rioting in the streets Egypt style.

Quote:

The devaluation of the currency will make american imports expensive and exports cheaper. It will also mean that the US debt will be smaller.
US are winning the currency war.

But Americans will still be poorer, paying 30% more for all products made in China (i.e. anything sold in Wal-Mart). Again, a shitty trade, replacing one set of problems with another.

[manilaguy]

You misunderstand the nature of American wealth. The nature of wealth is downward.

Meaning, Americans are getting richer precisely because goods are becoming cheaper, nothing to do with earning a higher income. In fact, debase the currency all you want, as long as I can buy my Air Jordans for an ever decreasing price I'll be richer/wealthier. Now if you increase the price on my Air Jordans, well then I buy from somebody else.. oh there are plenty of other Chinas in the world.

China serves as the manufacturing floor of the USA, it exists to serve our market at the price we dictate, not the other way around.

[manilaguy]

Our military isn't going to count for shit if people are starving and rioting in the streets Egypt style.


What??? My data source says otherwise. A strong military is all the leverage a republic needs to extract it's pound of flesh from other states/regimes, and whatever is left is bargained for.

[manilaguy]

Random thoughts

- China is really not that powerful and depends on US economy too much, think "the emperor does not have clothes".

- Unfortunately, Bernanke will not yield any clues on this inflation business, though his comment on feb unemployment figures were honest.

- Fed will eventually let our fiat currency adjust to it's true market value (lower), and though I have no idea when, I hope this quantitative easing is not quasi-economics (aka bulshit). *Kneels and prays

- I think gold is overrated and itself has turned to a bubble.

- I agree that the US economy is changing structurally, which will be marked by a decreased standard living for all or a sense of being raped and left for dead. Props to those who made it out.

- If you graduated in this decade, you're fucked. Just be thankful you didn't go to law school.