[svenski7]

Which stocks are you looking at?

I'll start:

I think BPT is a great stock which is currently underpriced. I bought in near its 52 week low.

-It has an over 10% dividend because of its trust status.
-it depends on oil production at some of the biggest oil wells in Alaska which will produce for some time to come despite decreasing oil production in that state as a whole.
-It is still reasonably priced between its 52 week high and low.

[svenski7]

Also did well in the last year with:
BP
Ford Motor Co. (F)
Disney (DIS)
Boeing (BA)
Wells Fargo (WFC)

I've reduced those holdings but if I had extra cash to throw around I would consider reinvesting in BP or Wells Fargo.

E-cigarettes were mentioned in another thread. Phillip Morris stock has been flat (slightly down) over the last year. If they acquire e-cig startups, they may be able to capture a portion of that market, increasing sales. I doubt that the small e-cig companies will last long before being bought out by the larger, traditional tobacco companies. On the other hand, owning their stock when they get bought out would be advantageous, especially if there is a convertible stock option.

3D printers are another thing I'd love to get into. Unfortunately, most of those companies are not publicly traded. Even if they were, most are still losing money and may get bought out for a low price. Wait and see might be best.

[Cincinnatus]

http://www.rooshvforum.network/thread-31498.html

[svenski7]

Does anybody know why Apple (AAPL) recently took on debt (issued bonds)?

They have billions of dollars in cash sitting in bank accounts across the world. Why did they decide to ignore that and start paying interest? Do they think they can outpace the interest with their own investments?

[Steve9]

(02-19-2014 09:53 PM)svenski7 Wrote:  

Does anybody know why Apple (AAPL) recently took on debt (issued bonds)?

They have billions of dollars in cash sitting in bank accounts across the world. Why did they decide to ignore that and start paying interest? Do they think they can outpace the interest with their own investments?

My understanding is that is that Apple used that debt to buyback their own stock - Last summer they purchased 36 million shares at an average price of $444. Since Apple stock is now $537 that was a fantastic investment.

The interest would have been tax deductible.

They do not want to repatriate all their cash from overseas because they stand to pay 35% tax on it.

[svenski7]

^Thanks. Didn't even think about the implications of repatriation.

Another puzzling situation is IBM. Their debt-to-asset ratio has steadily climbed over the last decade. They also have tons of cash.

IBM is another company that has been flat. I own some and I expect it to pop at their next earnings call. They missed their last earnings goal and the stock tanked. It is on sale IMHO.

[BIGINJAPAN]

(02-19-2014 10:42 PM)svenski7 Wrote:  

^Thanks. Didn't even think about the implications of repatriation.

Another puzzling situation is IBM. Their debt-to-asset ratio has steadily climbed over the last decade. They also have tons of cash.

IBM is another company that has been flat. I own some and I expect it to pop at their next earnings call. They missed their last earnings goal and the stock tanked. It is on sale IMHO.

IBM is fucked... They and other giant US tech firms signed a deal with the devil (nsa) and they will go down for it one day... All governments and firms from around the world are moving away from US tech companies, that is why they missed earnings and will continue to... I woulnt be holding it into earnings and even if it did pop what do you expect to make by holding IBM ? It has been stuck in the same range for 2 years

[Steve9]

(02-19-2014 11:08 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

IBM is fucked... They and other giant US tech firms signed a deal with the devil (nsa) and they will go down for it one day... All governments and firms from around the world are moving away from US tech companies, that is why they missed earnings and will continue to... I woulnt be holding it into earnings and even if it did pop what do you expect to make by holding IBM ? It has been stuck in the same range for 2 years

I wouldn't be so fast to dismiss IBM. Many corporations have their mission critical applications dependent on IBM products/services.

Lets make a note of today's closing price - IBM at $183 and the S&P500 at 1829.

I will reply to this post in 2 years on Feb 19 2016 and predict that IBM will have outperformed the S&P500 by then.

[BIGINJAPAN]

(02-19-2014 11:36 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  

(02-19-2014 11:08 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

IBM is fucked... They and other giant US tech firms signed a deal with the devil (nsa) and they will go down for it one day... All governments and firms from around the world are moving away from US tech companies, that is why they missed earnings and will continue to... I woulnt be holding it into earnings and even if it did pop what do you expect to make by holding IBM ? It has been stuck in the same range for 2 years

I wouldn't be so fast to dismiss IBM. Many corporations have their mission critical applications dependent on IBM products/services.

Lets make a note of today's closing price - IBM at $183 and the S&P500 at 1829.

I will reply to this post in 2 years on Feb 19 2016 and predict that IBM will have outperformed the S&P500 by then.

go ahead hold IBM for 2 years... See how many stocks or commodities go flying by while you try to prove a point

[rimjobs4life]

My 2014 predictions:

90 percent of traders and investors will do the following:
- lose money or fail to match the market's return (very significantly over time)
- wrong stocks, wrong sectors, wrong time
- lose more money through trading commissions and higher capital gains taxes
- expend enormous amounts of time and emotional stress for poorer results
- brag on the internet about their best trades/investments
- learn nothing and do the same in 2015

The same goes for mutual fund investors as well:
- enjoy a few lucky years here and there and get hopes up before the disaster comes, leading to far poorer long-term results when matched with the total stock market
- fall for “window-dressing,” or the common practice of managers' adding stocks to the top holdings after they've already made significant moves – just because this draws in more sheep investors
- pay 2% expense ratios
- pay higher taxes due to frequent trading by managers and capital gains distributions
- probably not even earn the full return of the fund due to market timing attempts
- learn nothing and do the same in 2015

These are the sheep. The irony is that if you want to earn better returns than 90 percent of investors and traders, you'll invest all your money in low-cost stock index funds. In 2013, I made $50k income from work, but earned $25k passively through index funds with another $20k that I added to these funds throughout the year. My more undisciplined coworkers are barely living above paycheck-to-paycheck and are constantly crying about the company's stock and praying it'll go up.

The only concern I have is planning my early retirement in a developing country with beautiful and poor women.

[svenski7]

@rimjobs: +1 for the statement on index funds. Warren Buffett said the same thing: for the average investor, nothing is better than a low cost, across the board passive index fund. He even said that most people who consider themselves experts ought to stick to them.

@BigInJapan: IBM also helped the Nazis develop a registration to track down the Jews 70 years ago. If we disqualified companies who have sold us out to the govt or bribed foreign officials, we wouldn't have a stock exchange.

[BIGINJAPAN]

(02-20-2014 03:01 PM)svenski7 Wrote:  

@rimjobs: +1 for the statement on index funds. Warren Buffett said the same thing: for the average investor, nothing is better than a low cost, across the board passive index fund. He even said that most people who consider themselves experts ought to stick to them.

@BigInJapan: IBM also helped the Nazis develop a registration to track down the Jews 70 years ago. If we disqualified companies who have sold us out to the govt or bribed foreign officials, we wouldn't have a stock exchange.

dude how many years did it take to uncover that ? information didnt flow like it does now... Not to mention all the growth in the world is coming from the BRIC's.... They are moving away from american companies.... You better look closer at where and why IBM missed its earnings... I suspect you did not read it or comprehend its last 2 quarterly reports

Perhaps IBM will last another 100 years or maybe not... I'm not confident enough to short it, but I know for certain using money that is invested in IBM is going to cost you a lot of profit in the coming years... Why not actively look or wait for the next IBM that hasn't happened yet ?

[gsinplaya]

MSFT looks interesting this year for a value/growth play.

3% dividend yield which is attractive.

New CEO should be able to more effectively use the massive cash pile they sit on and i expect greater innovation from them in the future.
Tends to be a slow mover but I could see a similar move from MSFT as what YHOO saw in 2013.

Technicals show little resistance until all time highs around 54.

[svenski7]

BIGINJAPAN Wrote:

dude how many years did it take to uncover that ? information didnt flow like it does now... Not to mention all the growth in the world is coming from the BRIC's.... They are moving away from american companies.... You better look closer at where and why IBM missed its earnings... I suspect you did not read it or comprehend its last 2 quarterly reports

Perhaps IBM will last another 100 years or maybe not... I'm not confident enough to short it, but I know for certain using money that is invested in IBM is going to cost you a lot of profit in the coming years... Why not actively look or wait for the next IBM that hasn't happened yet ?

How long did it take until the public found out that IBM was working with the Nazis?

No time because it was public knowledge. IBM was working with the Germans to facilitate a 'national census' with punchcard reading computers long before the first shots were fired in 1939.

If the SEC had existed, IBM's quarterly report would have stated something along the lines of:
Operating Income Foreign Operations:
-Germany:
-Government commissioned census project...XXX Reichsmark

If you were to point out that the consequences of helping the Germans develop this system were not known until after the war (Nuremburg Trials perhaps), I would answer that Apple has probably been sharing personal information since 2001. We didn't "officially" find out about that until mid-2013. Same time frame.

Your statement regarding BRIC countries is incorrect. A recent Economist article showed that most exchange rate adjusted global growth in 2014 will be coming from the 1st world developed economies. I will link the source when I return home.

The reason for investing in a company like IBM instead of the next Microsoft is simple. A company like IBM or Coke has build formidable defenses against entry by another company into their industry. Buffett calls this their castle "moat." IBM and Coke don't have moats. They have motherfucking archers, catapults and five moats with alligators and crocodiles surrounded by a bunch of pissed off poisonous frogs from the Amazon.

Also, they issue dividends. I will personally never again invest in a company that doesn't pay dividends unless I have intimate knowledge of their operations.

[svenski7]

gsinplaya Wrote:

MSFT looks interesting this year for a value/growth play.

3% dividend yield which is attractive.

New CEO should be able to more effectively use the massive cash pile they sit on and i expect greater innovation from them in the future.
Tends to be a slow mover but I could see a similar move from MSFT as what YHOO saw in 2013.

Technicals show little resistance until all time highs around 54.

Microsoft's dividend is great. I've had a 46% return in the last 9 months -- dividends not included.

[Remington]

Conoco Phillips (COP)
Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLY)

Great dividends, solid investments

[Veloce]

(02-20-2014 04:38 AM)rimjobs4life Wrote:  

My 2014 predictions:

90 percent of traders and investors will do the following:
- lose money or fail to match the market's return (very significantly over time)
- wrong stocks, wrong sectors, wrong time
- lose more money through trading commissions and higher capital gains taxes
- expend enormous amounts of time and emotional stress for poorer results
- brag on the internet about their best trades/investments
- learn nothing and do the same in 2015

These aren't just 2014 predictions. These are constants that apply to investors year in and year out. Nice post.

[BIGINJAPAN]

(02-22-2014 12:01 PM)svenski7 Wrote:  

BIGINJAPAN Wrote:

dude how many years did it take to uncover that ? information didnt flow like it does now... Not to mention all the growth in the world is coming from the BRIC's.... They are moving away from american companies.... You better look closer at where and why IBM missed its earnings... I suspect you did not read it or comprehend its last 2 quarterly reports

Perhaps IBM will last another 100 years or maybe not... I'm not confident enough to short it, but I know for certain using money that is invested in IBM is going to cost you a lot of profit in the coming years... Why not actively look or wait for the next IBM that hasn't happened yet ?

How long did it take until the public found out that IBM was working with the Nazis?

No time because it was public knowledge. IBM was working with the Germans to facilitate a 'national census' with punchcard reading computers long before the first shots were fired in 1939.

If the SEC had existed, IBM's quarterly report would have stated something along the lines of:
Operating Income Foreign Operations:
-Germany:
-Government commissioned census project...XXX Reichsmark

If you were to point out that the consequences of helping the Germans develop this system were not known until after the war (Nuremburg Trials perhaps), I would answer that Apple has probably been sharing personal information since 2001. We didn't "officially" find out about that until mid-2013. Same time frame.

Your statement regarding BRIC countries is incorrect. A recent Economist article showed that most exchange rate adjusted global growth in 2014 will be coming from the 1st world developed economies. I will link the source when I return home.

The reason for investing in a company like IBM instead of the next Microsoft is simple. A company like IBM or Coke has build formidable defenses against entry by another company into their industry. Buffett calls this their castle "moat." IBM and Coke don't have moats. They have motherfucking archers, catapults and five moats with alligators and crocodiles surrounded by a bunch of pissed off poisonous frogs from the Amazon.

Also, they issue dividends. I will personally never again invest in a company that doesn't pay dividends unless I have intimate knowledge of their operations.

Did that economist article use the real rate of inflation or the reported number by the western governments ? There is no growth going on in the west if you use a half decent annual inflation rate... Also did they remove government spending as a GDP growth indicator ? Explain to me how borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars is actual growth ?

[BIGINJAPAN]

Also for a little history lesson added onto that as well the SEC did exist back then and yes you had to disclose financial statements back then.... You may claim it was public knowledge but if it wasn't printed on the front page of the newspaper do you really think everyone knew about it ?

[TheBulldozer]

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/2...re-letter/

Excerpt of Buffet's 2014 letter to investors. Good, easy actionable advice. If you're young, read this and act on it. "The Intelligent Investor" is still the singular investment book worth reading. I'm giving it my second whirl at the moment.

[WestCoast]

All I know is if you have to work for a living (see have to look for a job if you lost yours today to pay the bills, ie not financially independent) and you're investing in a single security... I have some AIDS to sell you.

If you are independent entirely based on passive income (passive income = dividends and bonds) feel free to make your calls and invest away.

If you outperform the market and your sharpe ratio was garbage and risk level was high you didn't actually outperform.... If you can't read a financial statement or had to google sharpe ratio... Abort mission and start dollar cost averaging.

Hope no one loses a lot of dough. Also if this is just for fun, then cool thread.

[svenski7]

BIGINJAPAN Wrote:

Did that economist article use the real rate of inflation or the reported number by the western governments ?

I don't know, probably not, here's the link.
Aforementioned Economist Article

BIGINJAPAN Wrote:

Explain to me how borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars is actual growth ?

I definitely agree with you, deficit borrowing and spending is not growth nor sustainable.

I'm going to move on from IBM now but feel free to PM.

WestCoast Wrote:

If you are independent entirely based on passive income (passive income = dividends and bonds) feel free to make your calls and invest away.

If you outperform the market and your sharpe ratio was garbage and risk level was high you didn't actually outperform.... If you can't read a financial statement or had to google sharpe ratio... Abort mission and start dollar cost averaging.

I'm just a hobby investor but I keep this blog on RSS feed to learn more.

[svenski7]

The tobacco industry: Government coughers

The Chinese tobacco industry is arguably one of the largest untapped markets in the world.

According to the Brooks Institution, it is "the last bastion of China's planned economy."

Over 50% of Chinese men smoke although only 2% of Chinese women do.

Chinese tobacco sales rose from 285 billion yuan in 2005 to 757 billion yuan in 2012. Cigarettes are basically untaxed (read: cheap).

Attempts to curb smoking are half-hearted and have thus far failed. Many senior political leaders have a vested interest in the government-controlled tobacco company and would lose money by reducing smoking.

Most importantly: foreign companies have been completely shut out of the Chinese market. Philip Morris isn't getting its slice of the pie.

There has been some speculation that the Chinese market may open up to foreign competition. If that occurs, the profits of essentially all publicly-traded tobacco companies would soar.

[cheerfulwish]

Boeing
Johnson and Johnson
American Express
Travelers

[svenski7]

Lukoil (LUK):

Current Situation: Lukoil is down -11.48% over the last three months (approximately timeframe of the Ukrainian crisis). If tensions continue and Russia reduces the amount of oil flowing through pipelines to the EU, Lukoil's price may continue to fall and become a true "buy."

Financials:

P/E: 5.28
Div/yield: 1.56/5.73%
EPS: 10.14
52 wk low: $49.12
Market Cap: $40.38 Billion