[Roosh]

When I first heard this news, I shrugged it off, but now it has my paranoia hamster going a bit.

The idea to seize the savings of depositors has possibly come from the IMF, headquartered in DC, who advised the bailout. I believe this is a "test" for them to see reaction from the masses. If they can control this reaction, and there isn't bank runs in fragile economies or some type of Cyprus revolt, they will add this to their playbook of "financial crises solutions." If this comes to America, isn't it our fault for not acting after what's happening now?

This is where the gold crowd tries to assert their position, but less than 100 years ago, all gold was seized. Are they really safer than those who hold bank accounts?


Related reading:

- The Great Cyprus Bank Robbery Shows That No Bank Account, No Retirement Fund And No Stock Portfolio Is Safe

- "All The Conditions For A Total Disaster Are In Place"

[Roosh]

More Zero Hedge:

Quote:

It would be hard to over-emphasize how significant the Cyprus situation is. The EU demonstrated under no uncertain circumstances that they will destroy the rule of law to maintain their own power. It was a recognition of tyranny that many of us have always assumed was the case but yesterday became reality.

The damage done here is not related to the size of the haircut - currently discussed between 3 and 13% - but rather that the legal language which each and every investor on the planet must rely on in order to maintain confidence in the system has been subordinated to the needs of the powerful elite. To the power elite making the major decisions in DC, London, Berlin, France, Brussels, et. al., laws are like ice cream, easily melted.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-18...-just-died

[Faust]

Do we get to call duplicate thread on Roosh?

http://www.rooshvforum.network/thread-21819.html

[Roosh]

German economist talking about doing a 15% cut to Italian savers:

Quote:

"So it would make sense, in Italy a one-time property tax levy," suggested the Bank economist. "A tax rate of 15 percent on financial assets would probably be enough to push the Italian government debt to below the critical level of 100 percent of gross domestic product."

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...8-all.html

[Roosh]

(03-18-2013 09:09 PM)Faust Wrote:  

Do we get to call duplicate thread on Roosh?

http://www.rooshvforum.network/thread-21819.html

This thread is more narrow in scope.

[Faust]

Jokes aside, this is legitimately scary. If you believe any of this is going to be "one-time", you are too stupid to be trusted with more money than you can find in the couch cushions. It's like nuclear war; once the first nation does it, it's that much easier for the second nation to do it as well.

On the positive side, it looks like Cyprus is going to reject the deal.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-18...t-loss-law

I always thought ZeroHedge were a bunch of chicken little cranks, but they're the ones doing the best reporting on this issue. I guess it's good to be Chicken Little when the sky really is falling.

[j r]

How much of this is pressure to get the Russians to ease the conditions of their outstanding loan to Cyprus?

[Ensam]

FT Alphaville is a less histrionic source than zerohedge:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/03/16/14...e-had-come

I'm still working my way through it.

[scorpion]

This is most definitely an economic experiment, a test-run if you will. Little Cyprus is a guinea pig to see how the masses react to having their savings stolen from them. Anything less than banker blood in the streets will most likely be considered a success by the troika, and they'll try to do the same thing in Greece. I don't think that will turn out well for them, though. They basically caught the Cypriots with their pants down, but they've been fucking the Greeks for a couple of years now. I think a "tax" (a confiscation, really) like this in Greece would push the country over the edge into outright revolution.

As for physical gold, it can be confiscated as well, sure, but the process is going to be much more difficult and bloody for the authorities. It's so much easier for them to raid paper financial assets.

[GameTheory]

Cyprus=p00n paradise?

[Ensam]

Just for shits and giggles I've been running a little thought experiment:

Option A) Government imposed haircut on savings. Everybody in the country loses 10% of their cash balances.
Option B) No government action and the EU falls apart, inflation goes up and everyone loses 10% of their purchasing power.

Assuming Option A prevents Option B and Option B is an inevitable outcome of not doing Option A is there any real difference in the average citizens life?

I'm guessing that's the behind the scenes justification for this. Not that it makes it right.

[Luvianka]

The Cypriot bailout is a beta test for the whole World. Don't be surprised if one day president Obama speaks on national TV to declare a one week bank holiday while the system is 'repaired'. For every second from that moment the dollar would loose all its value while people cannot take possesion of their money. If you want to learn more, check out Ellen Hodgson Brown's blog http://www.webofdebt.com/

[WestCoast]

Roosh you're being paranoid dawg, kinda like your old school sickness paranoia from Dead Bat in Paraguay. All joking aside. Follow the power and the money will stay.

If there is a run on central banks in real countries (USA, Japan, China) and real revolts. Just buy a gun.

From a financial standpoint, you can also just do the old lever up and leave approach. Non-issue.

[NYJ]

The situation in Cyprus is definitely a slippery slope. If it happens there and goes over without mass riots, it can be at least considered anywhere.

[Tuthmosis]

My reaction to this news:

1. "Whatever. It doesn't affect me. I hope Europe sinks into ocean, leaving behind the hot girls floating on crates of wine bottles and soccer balls."



2. "Oh shit, wait! I have money in the bank."

[A CLOCKWORK TRADER]

The chickens are really coming home to roost on this one. Cyprus is a huge money laundering center. This country is Russia's answer to our Cayman Islands. All the major Russian companies have offices in Cyprus. Companies that 90% of people never even heard of yet they make astronomical profits. Case in point: Gunvor (oil trader)

Misha Glenny in his book McMafia claims that money laundered through Cyprus reached $1 billion a month, back in 1994. God knows what it is today. Cyprus has many shell companies connected to the Russian oil/gas industry. Without Russian $$$ Cyprus is dead. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.

[ms224]

You know there is a huge pipe line from the Caucus which supplies almost all the natural gas flowing into the EU?

They've turned the spigot off before.

On a completely unrelated note, here in the good ole USA 9mm, 223 and 45 ammo is over 50c/round. 308 is a buck a piece and 22 is like $8/50.

[j r]

Here's a pretty good take from FT Alphaville with a bit of a dissenting opinion: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/03/18/14...-deposits/

Everyone here is acting as if making depositors take a haircut is some sort of grave violation, but why shouldn't people lose some of their money if the bank they've deposited in goes under?

People have come to view money in the bank as being completely risk free, but why? There is a mistaken view that putting money in the bank is like putting in a vault where it sits until you need it. In reality, depositing money in the bank isn't much like locking it in a vault at all. For all intents and purposes, when you deposit money in the bank, you're essentially taking an equity position in that bank. It doesn't feel that way because we're used to a system where the government insures our deposits, explicitly through deposit insurance and implicitly by backing the entire banking system. Maybe that's not the best way to manage systemic risk.

By trying to complete remove risk from the system, we may have completely screwed up the system's ability to adequately manage risk. It's like raising kids in a completely sterile environment. You may be saving them from a lot of common contamination and irritants, but in the long run you're setting them up to be completely overwhelmed one day because their immune systems haven't developed properly.

It would be best if this change happened gradually and not all at once, brought on by crisis, but we need to get to a system where people are doing their due diligence. There have just been too many black boxes in the financial system: real estate booms, the dot com bubble, the housing bubble, derivatives, etc. The purpose of the financial system is to provide financial intermediation, that is, to balance surplus and deficits in capital. The system created value by making sure that capital never sits uninvested and that profitable ideas don't go unfunded. The financial sector, however, can't create alchemy. There has to be actual savings to fund investment and there has to be actual profitable ventures. No one wants the party to stop, but you have to settle up the tab sometime.

[Ensam]

The difference is that this is a tax on all Cypriote deposits-not just those at the failing banks. So if you're a Cypriote citizen you're fucked no matter what. On the other hand most of the money in Cypriote banks is not Cypriote.

[BIGINJAPAN]

This just in...... Open a new bank account in Cyprus and receive a free toaster.

[mistermister]

so investment/market types... what's the play here. how do we profit from Cyprus' misfortunes and still manage our downside in CDN and USD bank accounts in Canada/US.

otherwise what's the point in spinning my great depression/financial apocalypse hamster over and over in my head.

this is either a massive opportunity to profit or avoid calamity

or a massive cluster fuck that I don't much care for

what say you gentlemen ?

[Tex Pro]

Well, if Cyprus votes down this "bail-in", then I guess we get a test case of what happens when a smaller country leaves the Euro because a no vote to the "bail-in" means bankruptcy and an exit from the Euro for Cyprus.

On the bright side, all this crap means that the Euro is losing value against the dollar. If the shit hits the fan (assuming the Euro doesn't collapse), this means your dollar will have more buying power in Europe when you visit.

[tenderman100]

(03-18-2013 10:09 PM)j r Wrote:  

Everyone here is acting as if making depositors take a haircut is some sort of grave violation, but why shouldn't people lose some of their money if the bank they've deposited in goes under?

People have come to view money in the bank as being completely risk free, but why? There is a mistaken view that putting money in the bank is like putting in a vault where it sits until you need it. In reality, depositing money in the bank isn't much like locking it in a vault at all. For all intents and purposes, when you deposit money in the bank, you're essentially taking an equity position in that bank. It doesn't feel that way because we're used to a system where the government insures our deposits, explicitly through deposit insurance and implicitly by backing the entire banking system. Maybe that's not the best way to manage systemic risk.

By trying to complete remove risk from the system, we may have completely screwed up the system's ability to adequately manage risk.

Not gonna let this one pass.

There's a reason that when you put money in a bank it is called a "demand deposit." When you demand it, they have to give it to you.

You have LOANED money to a bank when you deposit money with them. You have not taken an EQUITY position. To take an equity position, you buy stock.

Most importantly, this is not about this bank, or that bank, failing. It is about the government -- read the EU Central bank -- confiscating the cash of citizens to re-orient the balance of payments deficit of a nation state. This is not about you, or me, investing is some enterprise that is going belly up and needs a cash infusion. This is about a supra-national state stealing money from individuals (Russian oligarchs count as individuals too).

It's that simple.

[tenderman100]

(03-18-2013 11:43 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  

Well, if Cyprus votes down this "bail-in", then I guess we get a test case of what happens when a smaller country leaves the Euro because a no vote to the "bail-in" means bankruptcy and an exit from the Euro for Cyprus.

On the bright side, all this crap means that the Euro is losing value against the dollar. If the shit hits the fan (assuming the Euro doesn't collapse), this means your dollar will have more buying power in Europe when you visit.

There is zero -- ZERO -- justification for the Euro to be $1.26 to the dollar. It is more false that a padded bra.

I wish that I could buy 10 year put options on the Euro. It may take 3 years, or 5 years, but definitely by 10 years, it will collapse -- unless Germany decides that IT will be the nation of the Euro.

But it just seems so logical to me that the Germans will say, "Achtung!! Enough!! We now are on the Deutschmark. Auf Wiedersehen!!"

And when the Germans say that, the Euro will collapse like a Florida sinkhole.

[Prophylaxis]

What does this mean for poon?

I will be over there in about a month