[Lumiere]

Very good article here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10096028.stm

If the same happens then get your self to greece and snap up property if the economy collapses

if you had done that in argentina in 2002 you would be looking at a 500 % profit now

[HD668B]

(05-05-2010 07:54 AM)Lumiere Wrote:  

Very good article here

If the same happens then get your self to greece and snap up property if the economy collapses

if you had done that in argentina in 2002 you would be looking at a 500 % profit now

Yep, already in my mind. Plus its beautiful overhere, casual mediterranean style, the all white Lime paint is classy.

Also you know what, in that kind of investment its a really good idea to buy with partners too.

[Pepini]

Here´s my two cents on the greek crisis:

- Euro is a mistake from the begining. Having a common currency, but not having a common government is something doomed to failure. Thinking that countries like Portugal and Germany can have the same currency, knowing the differences between the two countries is a complete nonsense. Germany has their own national interest, Portugal has also their own, how on earth can they share the same currency?
Europe could and should have a European government. The biggest problem is European national selfishness. Europeans don´t like European Union. They just know it´s necesary cause no indivdual european country has the means to compete with US.
It´s not cultural and ethnical diversity that stops a European government, look at India.

- In 8th of February of 2010 a group of Hedge Funds had dinner in a Manhatan private house. The theme of the dinner was the colapse of the Euro or at least bringing parity between the Dollar and Euro. Three days after the dinner, Euro dropped from $1,50 to bellow $1,36 (although Euro value was inflated). One of the Heged Funds was Soros Fund Management, LLC. Soros is famous for breaking the bank of England in the 90´s winning 1 billion dollars in one day.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...74392.html

- From all the Eurozone countries the weak link was Greece. Years of public waste, corruptions, bonuses to public servants just for arriving on time, using a computer, retirement age at 55, etc, etc.
I´ve just find out that in Portugal it will be a national holyday for public servants just cause the pope is visiting us. WTF?
I read there´s a greek island with the population of 100 people with 30 teachers. The next step would be Portugal (the who cares country), but investors already realised that Eurozone is weaker than they thought, so they will probably move directly to Spain which is a medium heavywheight. With Zapatero commanding Spanish government I have doubts that Spain can resist. Rumours is spanish government is already seeking a loan from IMF, cause no way Eurozone has enough money to bail out Spain if time comes. Spain is different than Greece for the Germans cause their bank exposure is much higher.

- Germans with their usually myopia didn´t understood as fast as the french(although the latter were more exposed to Greece) that the pressure form the markets wasn´t on greece but all Eurozone, instead they enjoyed more spreading the idiotic idea that greeks were lazy, they should sell some islands, etc. How could Greece face the market alone?

Helping Greece at the right moment would in the end be helping themselves. But the germans are known for they own way of being. This way of being where the obedience of law no matter what, is and will always be the only guidance this people believe in. It has proven wrong in the past when they killed 6 millions inocents and is still now when they should WITH ALL THE OTHERS MEMBERS OF THE EUROZONE have bailout Greeks before the debt crisis spread to other countries. For the third time in recent history germans will commit suicide deeply damaging Europe, this time with their inaction. Suposedly a call from Obama threatening for the SEC to pursue the Deutsch Bank for the same scames as Goldman Sachs, helped the German decision of backing the bailout plan.

- IMF and others Eurozone countries will bailout Greece. IMF shouldn´t bailout Greece. Not because ít´s a finantial arm of the US, but simply because it´s Eurozone fault and they are responsible and sould have to deal with their problem. Germany and all the other eurozone countries can´t simply look the other way. It´s Greece fault no doubt. But they are not the sole responsible. ECB with it´s iresponsible public loaning politic - favouring the germans export of products, bought by iresponsible south european countries on credit - as a share of the actual disaster.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11722

- The austerity measures now implemented by george papandreou are wrong. The treatment will inevitably kill the patient. Three persons were killed yesterday cause some protesters sended molotov Cocktails inside a greek bank. The blood from this three people are on the hands of the greeks, speculators and germans (not that this last two give a f*ck).
From what I´ve been hearing the measures taken by greek governments are even more severe than the ones IMF proposed.

- It seems Obama already created a credit line from the FED to ECB. Again pragmatic americans will have to bailout idiotic Europeans. The question if they have money for it comes to my mind.

- There has to be some kind of regulation against speculators and rating agencies. Sometimes a brake on the selvajary of capitalism must be created. Speculators and rating agencies are not doing good, they´re doing evil. If markets were to exist freely withouth regulation antitrust laws wouldn´t exist.

- Euro will no colapse neither the Eurozone. But big changes will be made. Like Buffet said when they asked him about Euro colapsing "I don´t like horror movies".

- I´m by no means an economist nor I pretend to be one, I´ve been following Greece crisis cause I knew it would hit Portugal and the whole Eurozone.

As for the comparisons between Greece and Argentina, I think there´s some huge differences that must be taken in account, simplistic has it may be seen Greece is in the developed country club which give him more power regarding decisions, Argentina wasn´t. Althogh buying greek houses might be a good moove, I doubt they will have the same levels of profit and keeping in mind that political instability can change conditions.

Ps: BTW miss Roosh insights in his economy posts.

[Peoloom]

(05-06-2010 06:01 PM)Pepini Wrote:  

- The austerity measures now implemented by george papandreou are wrong. The treatment will inevitably kill the patient. Three persons were killed yesterday cause some protesters sended molotov Cocktails inside a greek bank. The blood from this three people are on the hands of the greeks, speculators and germans (not that this last two give a f*ck).
From what I´ve been hearing the measures taken by greek governments are even more severe than the ones IMF proposed.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Many Eastern European countries are going through this right now to try to get their debt levels in line with Maastrich criteria (all 3 Baltic countries). Since eurozone membership prevents a country from implementing autonomous monetary policy, "internal devaluation" (real wage destruction, cutting government services, slashing discretionary spending) is the only mechanism available to fight inflation and reduce debt. Greece can do it, but I think the government needs to do a better job of explaining to the general populace just how necessary this is. Does the average Greek really think the Germans are going to float them billions of Euros when their retirement age is 53? When they get paid for 14 months of work? When 13% of the population is on the government payroll?

I think Greece's austerity measures CAN work, but they're going to require resolve on the government's part to not cave into pressures from the public via rioting and striking. If the government can hold out for a few months, things should cool down sufficiently for these measures to be successful. But if they can't hold out...then I don't think the markets will have much patience for the rest of the PIIGS countries.

[Pepini]

(05-07-2010 12:45 PM)Eric Wrote:  

(05-06-2010 06:01 PM)Pepini Wrote:  

- The austerity measures now implemented by george papandreou are wrong. The treatment will inevitably kill the patient. Three persons were killed yesterday cause some protesters sended molotov Cocktails inside a greek bank. The blood from this three people are on the hands of the greeks, speculators and germans (not that this last two give a f*ck).
From what I´ve been hearing the measures taken by greek governments are even more severe than the ones IMF proposed.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Many Eastern European countries are going through this right now to try to get their debt levels in line with Maastrich criteria (all 3 Baltic countries). Since eurozone membership prevents a country from implementing autonomous monetary policy, "internal devaluation" (real wage destruction, cutting government services, slashing discretionary spending) is the only mechanism available to fight inflation and reduce debt. Greece can do it, but I think the government needs to do a better job of explaining to the general populace just how necessary this is. Does the average Greek really think the Germans are going to float them billions of Euros when their retirement age is 53? When they get paid for 14 months of work? When 13% of the population is on the government payroll?

I think Greece's austerity measures CAN work, but they're going to require resolve on the government's part to not cave into pressures from the public via rioting and striking. If the government can hold out for a few months, things should cool down sufficiently for these measures to be successful. But if they can't hold out...then I don't think the markets will have much patience for the rest of the PIIGS countries.

Some facts:

- The pressure isn´t on the PIIGS, Euro is the goal. PIIGS are only domino´s to reach France and Germany.
- German will not donate or subsidy. They will lend 28% of the rescue plan and if everything goes well with a profit.
- At the present moment Germany is breaking the 3% Maastricht rule, with a deficit of 3,3%.
- Uk and Belgium are in the same shape than Greece. Upps they are not PIIGS. Shit didn´t Iceland a scandinavian country just bankrupt a while ago...
- If the club med or now so called PIIGS (I guess we can also call France, Austria and Germany the FAG group) default, it´s around 3 trillion euros that melt. Nice for the european banking system.
- Only in Spain German banks have something like 500 billion euros exposure.
- I honestly hope that the measures taken by the greek government works. Raising the VAT to 23%, risign fuel by 10%. Time will tell.
- If you wanna talk about public waste take a look at the EU monstruous bureaucracy.
- Btw economy comes from two greek words Oikos (house) and Nomos (administration), also democracy Demo (people) cracia (government). Not bad for a country of lazy bastards.
- Greeks are not a rich nation. Like every corrupt country the vast majority struggles to have a decent like, as the small corrupt minority lives like millionaires.
- For the first time, since WWII, Germany is taking the lead in European matters, as you can see when the german finance minister threatens to kick off Greece from Euro. Taking in account recent history those are not good signs.

"Suppose my neighbor's home catches fire, and I have a length of garden hose four or five hundred feet away. If he can take my garden hose and connect it up with his hydrant, I may help him to put out his fire...I don't say to him before that operation, "Neighbor, my garden hose cost me $15; you have to pay me $15 for it."... I don't want $15--I want my garden hose back after the fire is over. "
Franklin Roosevelt´s, December 17, 1940

When England couldn´t pay for the supplies and arms the United States had been providing in the battle against Germany knowing that Johnson Debt-Default Act had forbade the United States from trading with any warring nation except on cash terms, Roosevelt used the analogy of "lending a neighbor your garden hose if his house was on fire and thereby keeping the fire from spreading to your own house", gaining support for the lending.

[Peoloom]

(05-07-2010 11:40 PM)Pepini Wrote:  

Some facts:

Yeah, I agreed with what you said...I never said I thought lending them emergency funds was a bad idea. It's just that emergency funds are not enough; the government has to severely scale back if it wants to structurally change its economy. Speculators will be less inclined to attack the Euro if Greek austerity measures begin to work.

[HD668B]

damn Pepini thats a pretty big datasheet about Greece, you know your EU more than me thats for sure. Point noted for future investments hehe.

Where I was going with Lumiere OP, is that Greece will surely rely more and more on tourism. So I wasnt really thinking about capital gain on a property value ( like you mentionned its not a good bet due the country's economy) but more like owning a small place, and getting a good free cash flow each month.

Plus in the end your the owner of a cool spot, you get social proof, and the pussy is easy. Yeah okay you got me, its all about the pussy.

[AlphaQup2nite]

Gotta love the "crisis" in the EU dropping the Euro vs the RMB, its down almost 20%, great for my business right now. just wondering how much longer it will last.

[DrArete]

(05-06-2010 06:01 PM)Pepini Wrote:  

Here´s my two cents on the greek crisis:

- Euro is a mistake from the begining. Having a common currency, but not having a common government is something doomed to failure. Thinking that countries like Portugal and Germany can have the same currency, knowing the differences between the two countries is a complete nonsense. Germany has their own national interest, Portugal has also their own, how on earth can they share the same currency?
Europe could and should have a European government. The biggest problem is European national selfishness. Europeans don´t like European Union. They just know it´s necesary cause no indivdual european country has the means to compete with US.
It´s not cultural and ethnical diversity that stops a European government, look at India.

- In 8th of February of 2010 a group of Hedge Funds had dinner in a Manhatan private house. The theme of the dinner was the colapse of the Euro or at least bringing parity between the Dollar and Euro. Three days after the dinner, Euro dropped from $1,50 to bellow $1,36 (although Euro value was inflated). One of the Heged Funds was Soros Fund Management, LLC. Soros is famous for breaking the bank of England in the 90´s winning 1 billion dollars in one day.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...74392.html

- From all the Eurozone countries the weak link was Greece. Years of public waste, corruptions, bonuses to public servants just for arriving on time, using a computer, retirement age at 55, etc, etc.
I´ve just find out that in Portugal it will be a national holyday for public servants just cause the pope is visiting us. WTF?
I read there´s a greek island with the population of 100 people with 30 teachers. The next step would be Portugal (the who cares country), but investors already realised that Eurozone is weaker than they thought, so they will probably move directly to Spain which is a medium heavywheight. With Zapatero commanding Spanish government I have doubts that Spain can resist. Rumours is spanish government is already seeking a loan from IMF, cause no way Eurozone has enough money to bail out Spain if time comes. Spain is different than Greece for the Germans cause their bank exposure is much higher.

- Germans with their usually myopia didn´t understood as fast as the french(although the latter were more exposed to Greece) that the pressure form the markets wasn´t on greece but all Eurozone, instead they enjoyed more spreading the idiotic idea that greeks were lazy, they should sell some islands, etc. How could Greece face the market alone?

Helping Greece at the right moment would in the end be helping themselves. But the germans are known for they own way of being. This way of being where the obedience of law no matter what, is and will always be the only guidance this people believe in. It has proven wrong in the past when they killed 6 millions inocents and is still now when they should WITH ALL THE OTHERS MEMBERS OF THE EUROZONE have bailout Greeks before the debt crisis spread to other countries. For the third time in recent history germans will commit suicide deeply damaging Europe, this time with their inaction. Suposedly a call from Obama threatening for the SEC to pursue the Deutsch Bank for the same scames as Goldman Sachs, helped the German decision of backing the bailout plan.

- IMF and others Eurozone countries will bailout Greece. IMF shouldn´t bailout Greece. Not because ít´s a finantial arm of the US, but simply because it´s Eurozone fault and they are responsible and sould have to deal with their problem. Germany and all the other eurozone countries can´t simply look the other way. It´s Greece fault no doubt. But they are not the sole responsible. ECB with it´s iresponsible public loaning politic - favouring the germans export of products, bought by iresponsible south european countries on credit - as a share of the actual disaster.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11722

- The austerity measures now implemented by george papandreou are wrong. The treatment will inevitably kill the patient. Three persons were killed yesterday cause some protesters sended molotov Cocktails inside a greek bank. The blood from this three people are on the hands of the greeks, speculators and germans (not that this last two give a f*ck).
From what I´ve been hearing the measures taken by greek governments are even more severe than the ones IMF proposed.

- It seems Obama already created a credit line from the FED to ECB. Again pragmatic americans will have to bailout idiotic Europeans. The question if they have money for it comes to my mind.

- There has to be some kind of regulation against speculators and rating agencies. Sometimes a brake on the selvajary of capitalism must be created. Speculators and rating agencies are not doing good, they´re doing evil. If markets were to exist freely withouth regulation antitrust laws wouldn´t exist.

- Euro will no colapse neither the Eurozone. But big changes will be made. Like Buffet said when they asked him about Euro colapsing "I don´t like horror movies".

- I´m by no means an economist nor I pretend to be one, I´ve been following Greece crisis cause I knew it would hit Portugal and the whole Eurozone.

As for the comparisons between Greece and Argentina, I think there´s some huge differences that must be taken in account, simplistic has it may be seen Greece is in the developed country club which give him more power regarding decisions, Argentina wasn´t. Althogh buying greek houses might be a good moove, I doubt they will have the same levels of profit and keeping in mind that political instability can change conditions.

Ps: BTW miss Roosh insights in his economy posts.

I started to lose interest in your post from the beginning. Quite generic.

I stopped reading when you Godwined it. Not quite so sure what 6 million dead jews have to do with this.

[Pepini]

(05-21-2010 12:39 PM)DrArete Wrote:  

(05-06-2010 06:01 PM)Pepini Wrote:  

Here´s my two cents on the greek crisis:

- Euro is a mistake from the begining. Having a common currency, but not having a common government is something doomed to failure. Thinking that countries like Portugal and Germany can have the same currency, knowing the differences between the two countries is a complete nonsense. Germany has their own national interest, Portugal has also their own, how on earth can they share the same currency?
Europe could and should have a European government. The biggest problem is European national selfishness. Europeans don´t like European Union. They just know it´s necesary cause no indivdual european country has the means to compete with US.
It´s not cultural and ethnical diversity that stops a European government, look at India.

- In 8th of February of 2010 a group of Hedge Funds had dinner in a Manhatan private house. The theme of the dinner was the colapse of the Euro or at least bringing parity between the Dollar and Euro. Three days after the dinner, Euro dropped from $1,50 to bellow $1,36 (although Euro value was inflated). One of the Heged Funds was Soros Fund Management, LLC. Soros is famous for breaking the bank of England in the 90´s winning 1 billion dollars in one day.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...74392.html

- From all the Eurozone countries the weak link was Greece. Years of public waste, corruptions, bonuses to public servants just for arriving on time, using a computer, retirement age at 55, etc, etc.
I´ve just find out that in Portugal it will be a national holyday for public servants just cause the pope is visiting us. WTF?
I read there´s a greek island with the population of 100 people with 30 teachers. The next step would be Portugal (the who cares country), but investors already realised that Eurozone is weaker than they thought, so they will probably move directly to Spain which is a medium heavywheight. With Zapatero commanding Spanish government I have doubts that Spain can resist. Rumours is spanish government is already seeking a loan from IMF, cause no way Eurozone has enough money to bail out Spain if time comes. Spain is different than Greece for the Germans cause their bank exposure is much higher.

- Germans with their usually myopia didn´t understood as fast as the french(although the latter were more exposed to Greece) that the pressure form the markets wasn´t on greece but all Eurozone, instead they enjoyed more spreading the idiotic idea that greeks were lazy, they should sell some islands, etc. How could Greece face the market alone?

Helping Greece at the right moment would in the end be helping themselves. But the germans are known for they own way of being. This way of being where the obedience of law no matter what, is and will always be the only guidance this people believe in. It has proven wrong in the past when they killed 6 millions inocents and is still now when they should WITH ALL THE OTHERS MEMBERS OF THE EUROZONE have bailout Greeks before the debt crisis spread to other countries. For the third time in recent history germans will commit suicide deeply damaging Europe, this time with their inaction. Suposedly a call from Obama threatening for the SEC to pursue the Deutsch Bank for the same scames as Goldman Sachs, helped the German decision of backing the bailout plan.

- IMF and others Eurozone countries will bailout Greece. IMF shouldn´t bailout Greece. Not because ít´s a finantial arm of the US, but simply because it´s Eurozone fault and they are responsible and sould have to deal with their problem. Germany and all the other eurozone countries can´t simply look the other way. It´s Greece fault no doubt. But they are not the sole responsible. ECB with it´s iresponsible public loaning politic - favouring the germans export of products, bought by iresponsible south european countries on credit - as a share of the actual disaster.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11722

- The austerity measures now implemented by george papandreou are wrong. The treatment will inevitably kill the patient. Three persons were killed yesterday cause some protesters sended molotov Cocktails inside a greek bank. The blood from this three people are on the hands of the greeks, speculators and germans (not that this last two give a f*ck).
From what I´ve been hearing the measures taken by greek governments are even more severe than the ones IMF proposed.

- It seems Obama already created a credit line from the FED to ECB. Again pragmatic americans will have to bailout idiotic Europeans. The question if they have money for it comes to my mind.

- There has to be some kind of regulation against speculators and rating agencies. Sometimes a brake on the selvajary of capitalism must be created. Speculators and rating agencies are not doing good, they´re doing evil. If markets were to exist freely withouth regulation antitrust laws wouldn´t exist.

- Euro will no colapse neither the Eurozone. But big changes will be made. Like Buffet said when they asked him about Euro colapsing "I don´t like horror movies".

- I´m by no means an economist nor I pretend to be one, I´ve been following Greece crisis cause I knew it would hit Portugal and the whole Eurozone.

As for the comparisons between Greece and Argentina, I think there´s some huge differences that must be taken in account, simplistic has it may be seen Greece is in the developed country club which give him more power regarding decisions, Argentina wasn´t. Althogh buying greek houses might be a good moove, I doubt they will have the same levels of profit and keeping in mind that political instability can change conditions.

Ps: BTW miss Roosh insights in his economy posts.

(05-21-2010 12:39 PM)DrArete Wrote:  

I started to lose interest in your post from the beginning. Quite generic.

No wonder. Be specific.

(05-21-2010 12:39 PM)DrArete Wrote:  

I stopped reading when you Godwined it. Not quite so sure what 6 million dead jews have to do with this.

A lot.

[Pepini]

So the the bad wolf blowed against the first litle piggie called Greece, and now Ireland. Now it´s time for Portugal. Sick sense of humour this Hedge Funds have...

[manilaguy]

Pepini, that's good data. Thanks for sharing. So what are the implications of a Euro meltdown for the US dollar? I ask because i'd like to tour Europe more often.

[rudebwoy]

There must be some good real estate deals to be had in this place. I have been to the islands (Rhodes, Kos) many years ago and quite frankly it changed my life. Two swiss blondes rushed me and the rest was history........

[Duke Castile]

Bailouts = rearranging the chairs on the Titanic

[Pepini]

(11-25-2010 09:11 PM)manilaguy Wrote:  

Pepini, that's good data. Thanks for sharing. So what are the implications of a Euro meltdown for the US dollar? I ask because i'd like to tour Europe more often.

http://www.hiddenlevers.com/hl/scenario?scenid=5621&

See the last item on the right board.

Check out this article also:
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-cripple...now-2010-5

[HD668B]

Quote:

Last week, a man shot a bus inspector hired to crack down on fare dodgers after protesters stormed a police station, snatched hundreds of confiscated number plates and set light to thousands of fines. Days later thugs attacked Antonis Loverdos, the health minister, as he visited a hospital in Athens. In Patras, James Watson, the 83-year-old Nobel Prize-winning geneticist was also attacked as he prepared to give a speech at the city's university.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr...lt-bailout

[Samseau]

Well, Pepini, following the usual economists, got it wrong.

Quote:

- Euro will no colapse neither the Eurozone. But big changes will be made. Like Buffet said when they asked him about Euro colapsing "I don´t like horror movies".

Check out this shit:


These spreads are ugly.



So, here's what's gonna happen. It's just a matter of time. And here's how you can profit$$$ off of this.

1. Greece will default (just a partial one, at first). Bailouts only delay the inevitable, but who cares. When a government defaults on public debt the currency becomes debased (i.e. inflated away). When Greece defaults the value of the Euro will go down, down, down.

2. The dollar will retain its value in proportion, creating amazing buying opportunities in Greece.

3. Other Euro states have deep contagion to Greece, so they will either be forced to default (partial or full) or bailout.


Bottom Line: Europe defaults before America, meaning you can use your American dollars to snatch up European assets pretty soon. This will all occur within 4 years, so get ready to buy your very first Mediterranean vacation home.

I wish I was born 10 years earlier, so I would have more money to capitalize on this.

[Pepini]

(05-06-2010 06:01 PM)Pepini Wrote:  

Here´s my two cents on the greek crisis:

- Euro is a mistake from the begining. Having a common currency, but not having a common government is something doomed to failure. Thinking that countries like Portugal and Germany can have the same currency, knowing the differences between the two countries is a complete nonsense. Germany has their own national interest, Portugal has also their own, how on earth can they share the same currency?
Europe could and should have a European government. The biggest problem is European national selfishness. Europeans don´t like European Union. They just know it´s necesary cause no indivdual european country has the means to compete with US.
It´s not cultural and ethnical diversity that stops a European government, look at India.

- In 8th of February of 2010 a group of Hedge Funds had dinner in a Manhatan private house. The theme of the dinner was the colapse of the Euro or at least bringing parity between the Dollar and Euro. Three days after the dinner, Euro dropped from $1,50 to bellow $1,36 (although Euro value was inflated). One of the Heged Funds was Soros Fund Management, LLC. Soros is famous for breaking the bank of England in the 90´s winning 1 billion dollars in one day.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...74392.html

- From all the Eurozone countries the weak link was Greece. Years of public waste, corruptions, bonuses to public servants just for arriving on time, using a computer, retirement age at 55, etc, etc.
I´ve just find out that in Portugal it will be a national holyday for public servants just cause the pope is visiting us. WTF?
I read there´s a greek island with the population of 100 people with 30 teachers. The next step would be Portugal (the who cares country), but investors already realised that Eurozone is weaker than they thought, so they will probably move directly to Spain which is a medium heavywheight. With Zapatero commanding Spanish government I have doubts that Spain can resist. Rumours is spanish government is already seeking a loan from IMF, cause no way Eurozone has enough money to bail out Spain if time comes. Spain is different than Greece for the Germans cause their bank exposure is much higher.

- Germans with their usually myopia didn´t understood as fast as the french(although the latter were more exposed to Greece) that the pressure form the markets wasn´t on greece but all Eurozone, instead they enjoyed more spreading the idiotic idea that greeks were lazy, they should sell some islands, etc. How could Greece face the market alone?

Helping Greece at the right moment would in the end be helping themselves. But the germans are known for they own way of being. This way of being where the obedience of law no matter what, is and will always be the only guidance this people believe in. It has proven wrong in the past when they killed 6 millions inocents and is still now when they should WITH ALL THE OTHERS MEMBERS OF THE EUROZONE have bailout Greeks before the debt crisis spread to other countries. For the third time in recent history germans will commit suicide deeply damaging Europe, this time with their inaction. Suposedly a call from Obama threatening for the SEC to pursue the Deutsch Bank for the same scames as Goldman Sachs, helped the German decision of backing the bailout plan.

- IMF and others Eurozone countries will bailout Greece. IMF shouldn´t bailout Greece. Not because ít´s a finantial arm of the US, but simply because it´s Eurozone fault and they are responsible and sould have to deal with their problem. Germany and all the other eurozone countries can´t simply look the other way. It´s Greece fault no doubt. But they are not the sole responsible. ECB with it´s iresponsible public loaning politic - favouring the germans export of products, bought by iresponsible south european countries on credit - as a share of the actual disaster.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11722

- The austerity measures now implemented by george papandreou are wrong. The treatment will inevitably kill the patient. Three persons were killed yesterday cause some protesters sended molotov Cocktails inside a greek bank. The blood from this three people are on the hands of the greeks, speculators and germans (not that this last two give a f*ck).
From what I´ve been hearing the measures taken by greek governments are even more severe than the ones IMF proposed.

- It seems Obama already created a credit line from the FED to ECB. Again pragmatic americans will have to bailout idiotic Europeans. The question if they have money for it comes to my mind.

- There has to be some kind of regulation against speculators and rating agencies. Sometimes a brake on the selvajary of capitalism must be created. Speculators and rating agencies are not doing good, they´re doing evil. If markets were to exist freely withouth regulation antitrust laws wouldn´t exist.

- Euro will no colapse neither the Eurozone. But big changes will be made. Like Buffet said when they asked him about Euro colapsing "I don´t like horror movies".

- I´m by no means an economist nor I pretend to be one, I´ve been following Greece crisis cause I knew it would hit Portugal and the whole Eurozone.

As for the comparisons between Greece and Argentina, I think there´s some huge differences that must be taken in account, simplistic has it may be seen Greece is in the developed country club which give him more power regarding decisions, Argentina wasn´t. Althogh buying greek houses might be a good moove, I doubt they will have the same levels of profit and keeping in mind that political instability can change conditions.

Ps: BTW miss Roosh insights in his economy posts.

Well, just like expected Italy got downgraded. Now, even though there´s no valid reason. Next Stop France. War in the horizon. Ahhh the Germans you gotta love them: "Fucking up Europe for the last 100 years".

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44535393/Euro_Col...ish_FinMin

People continue to see the Euro colapsing only with a shortsighted economic view and forgeting the political one. It´s not gold going up, or buying houses. If Euro crashes, EU will probably follow. And when that happens it´s selvagery. It´s the strong posibility of a III World War starting again in Europe because of European selfishness.
You can only push people to a limit. After passing that limit comes irrationality and selvagery.

Fuck the english. They should never entered EU. They´re viruses for Eu integration.

Buying houses??? Dude only stone will be left if a war emerges.

What is this shit anyway? Who is Herman Van Rompuy? Who elected this prick to be president? in this point I agree with the English.

Both weak politicians Merkel and Sarkozy are playing with democracy and matches. They are calling out politicians of the weakened countries to Berlin instead of Brussels. This is not how it´s done. You gotta enforce democracy not weaken it, if you want people to obbey to law.

Do Germans really think the price they will pay with Eurobounds is bigger than a devasting war?

And if a "civil" war erupts, there will be a winner. History tells me that Germans will loose and probably forced to join a new United States Of Europe. Idiot fucks.

And the warmongers will fill their pockets with the blood of innocent people (Rotschild).

[portofmanteau]

(09-21-2011 09:24 PM)Pepini Wrote:  

Well, just like expected Italy got downgraded. Now, even though there´s no valid reason. Next Stop France. War in the horizon. Ahhh the Germans you gotta love them: "Fucking up Europe for the last 100 years".

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44535393/Euro_Col...ish_FinMin

People continue to see the Euro colapsing only with a shortsighted economic view and forgeting the political one. It´s not gold going up, or buying houses. If Euro crashes, EU will probably follow. And when that happens it´s selvagery. It´s the strong posibility of a III World War starting again in Europe because of European selfishness.
You can only push people to a limit. After passing that limit comes irrationality and selvagery.

Fuck the english. They should never entered EU. They´re viruses for Eu integration.

Buying houses??? Dude only stone will be left if a war emerges.

What is this shit anyway? Who is Herman Van Rompuy? Who elected this prick to be president? in this point I agree with the English.

Both weak politicians Merkel and Sarkozy are playing with democracy and matches. They are calling out politicians of the weakened countries to Berlin instead of Brussels. This is not how it´s done. You gotta enforce democracy not weaken it, if you want people to obbey to law.

Do Germans really think the price they will pay with Eurobounds is bigger than a devasting war?

And if a "civil" war erupts, there will be a winner. History tells me that Germans will loose and probably forced to join a new United States Of Europe. Idiot fucks.

And the warmongers will fill their pockets with the blood of innocent people (Rotschild).

Jumped the shark here.. Reports of world war 3 are greatly exaggerated. There would be severe economic pain for Europe if the eurozone were to collapse, that's for sure, and the Germans are pushing for the Euro to weaken, to help their exports, just as much as the US/Chinese are pushing to strengthen it to help their own. However, the idea that a European country is going to go Blitzkrieg on everyone else is laughable. All the capable aggressors were wiped out 60 years ago.

[hydrogonian]

Yeah, other than the UK, I cant think of a single European army that could cause serious havoc. Unless nukes were used. Especially with US bases in Germany and elsewhere anchoring the entire region.

Now, if Russia got into the frey for some reason, then that's a different story. But they won't.

In the age of USA imperialism, nuclear weapons, and modern wall street influence, there is no war that would able to be waged on an international level in Europe. The most you will ever see is civil wars, and those will likely be heavily subsidized and encouraged or quickly stifled by the international powers that be.

All first world warfare now is waged economically, through sanctions, and through special ops type terrorism, and there really are only three serious world powers in that can pull those strings on any meaningful level (outside the influence of anyone else, well, sort of). "Terrorism" can be used by anyone, but that tends to bring more harm to the aggressors than it accomplishes, and so false flags always have to be considered as possibilities for most modern terrorist acts.

The only real wars in this modern day will be in undeveloped countries and, like I said, civil wars in the first world designed to obliterate certain ethnic/political groups.

[blurb]

Quote:

The most you will ever see is civil wars, and those will likely be heavily subsidized or quickly stifled by the international powers that be.

Tell that to Bosnia. The Yugoslav wars lasted for 4 years (1991-1995).

[hydrogonian]

(09-22-2011 09:28 PM)blurb Wrote:  

Quote:

The most you will ever see is civil wars, and those will likely be heavily subsidized or quickly stifled by the international powers that be.

Tell that to Bosnia. The Yugoslav wars lasted for 4 years (1991-1995).

That war is actually the exact war that I had in mind when I mentioned regional ethnic war. Although, I guess, technically, it was an international war. However, most think of it as the "Bosnian War". Hence, a civil war.

You likely know more about it than me.

Who financed it?
Why was it allowed to continue?
Who benefited?
What were the ultimate ethnic and geopolitical results?

Likely, it falls under the category of regional ethnic civil war. I believe that it was essentially a war meant to ethnically cleanse a specific population.

[blurb]

There is so much that I can write about this region; I can go on and on, so I'll be as short as possible.

Quote:

Who financed it?

The U.S. and Europe placed an arms embargo on Yugoslavia throughout the entire war, so most of the weapons used came from the Yugoslav National Army stockpile (JNA). However, most of the stockpiles were held in Belgrade and other parts of Serbia and the Serbs had access to most of the country's military weaponry. So, in all, it was a really lopsided conflict, where non-Serbs who had guns were outnumbered by Serbs who had guns by 1:10, sometimes by 1:100. When you're up against an opponent with such sophisticated miltary technology with tanks, missiles, etc. it naturally leads that one side will eventually be literally blown apart (genocide: see Srebrenica). Croatia, which has a coastline, could smuggle in arms so they were a little bit better off. The worst off were the Bosniaks in the middle in Bosnia.

Quote:

Why was it allowed to continue

I don't have the answer. There are a lot of theories supported by evidence. But I disagree with you about international powers quickly stifling a conflict. 4 years is a long time.

Quote:

Who benefited

Quote:

What were the ultimate ethnic and geopolitical results?

Who ended up in the best position? In the order of best to worst:

1. Slovenia: Barely saw any war; conflict over in a few weeks. Most economically developed country in Eastern Europe and quickly ended up joining the E.U. without any problems. When Slovenia seceded from Yugoslavia, they also took the only nuclear power plant in Yugoslavia so cheap energy for them! Around 70% of Slovenia's energy comes from nuclear energy. There was also a movie (I haven't seen it yet) about a guy working at the power plant smuggling people over the border.

2. Croatia: Suffered a helluva lot more than Slovenia did, but not as much as Bosnia. Croatia will recover well and have already made some headway already. Furthermore, since they have a long coastline on the Adriatic Sea, Croatia attracts a lot of tourists (something the other former Yugoslav nations don't have except for Montenegro.) Tourism is a major component of Croatia's economy. Croatia is set to join the E.U. in 2012.

3. Montenegro: Experienced no war, so it's infrastructure is still intact. Has a coastline and access to the Adriatic Sea so that means more tourists. Gained independence in 3 June 3006. The country is almost empty--about 634,000 people. Not even a million people live there!

4. Macedonia: Landlocked country. Experienced no war. I don't know as much about this country as the others. It wanted to call itself the Republic of Macedonia, but that apparently got Greece angry, and the two were about to go at each other, so they decided on officially calling it the Former Yugoslavi Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). About 65% of all people that live in Macedonia are Macedonians, but there is a large minority of Albanians (25%) who also live there which is causing some ethnic tension in the region. Keep your eyes out on Macedonia.

5. Serbia: Corruption. Even though corruption is everywhere, the country is divided almost 50-50 with those progressive pro-western and those right-wing natinoalists almost evenly divided. When the economy turned shit in 2000 and power bills skyrocketed, Milosevic was overthrown by a coup and disappeared. The country seems to be in limbo between joining the rest of Europe or (long-shot) hoping for integrating into Russia or at least having closer ties with Russia. With Boris Tadic as president, however, they seem to be heading closer with the West than with Russia.

6. Bosnia and Hercegovina: The country is fucked up. They received the brunt of the war. The Dayton Accords created a huge monster of an ineffective bureacracy where bribery and corruption run rampant. Instead of uniting the country, districts and territories are even more divided along ethnic lines. They have no unified strong central government. Instead, there are two regional governments, the Serb Republic (Republika Srpska) and the Federation (Bosniaks and Croats). The RS makes up 49% of Bosnia while the Federation makes up 51% of Bosnia. One time when Sarajevo (the capital) called for a vote on creating one-central powerful government, the former PM of RS, Milorad Dodik, had threatened to call a referendum for Serb secession (which would have caused another war). I highly doubt that there will be another war. After the shit that went down in Srebrenica genocide, the West would be embarassed to let another massacre happen in the heart of Europe. Instead, I think that pressure will be put on Serbs to unite, because, until Bosnia has at least a fully functioning central government, they can't even apply for the E.U. All other Eastern European and former Yugoslav countries are making progress while Bosnia is stuck in stagnation.

Foreign aid that was supposed to be sent to desperate people ends up missing. They have around a 40% unemployment rate. Instead of one president, they have 3 presidents, one for each ethnic group (Bosniak, Croat, Serb), but this could be in violation of the constitution since people of other ethnic groups (Jews, Protestants, etc.) aren't allowed to run for president.

The country receives almost no tourists (self-explanatory).

Quote:

Likely, it falls under the category of regional ethnic civil war.

Agree 90% with you, but why did the international community take action so late? What were they waiting for? Ulterior motives?

[Pepini]

"Expect the best, be prepared for the worst."

Each of arguments stated here are all valid. Thing is that you could place them before any of the world wars.
Truth is i´m trying to figure this shit out.

After II WW, EU was created for the main purpose of joining France and Germany. Those two countries had to be joined together for peace.

If Greece defaults French banks will be heavily exposed.

Why did Siemens took their money from a French bank?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/19...70904.html

War normally happens for one reason. Taking wealth from others (you can disguise it with other reasons).

Guess what happens if France becomes Bankrupt and Germany grows 4% year.

I don´t see a war happening in the next 5 years. But if the economic conditions of Europeans countries continue to deteriorate, there will be no rationality left.

So you think the asasination of Ferdinand started IWW? No it was the culmination or excuse for old revenges to hit the surface.

France wanted revenge from Germany. Guess who wants revenge now?

[Caligula]

(09-22-2011 11:04 PM)blurb Wrote:  

Agree 90% with you, but why did the international community take action so late? What were they waiting for? Ulterior motives?

Great post blurb.

Didn't seem worth it to get involved. The idea of humanitarian intervention was still controversial. The EU lacked the cohesion and political will to do anything about it. There was a lot of opposition to NATO getting involved. The role that NATO should play was very uncertain after the collapse of the Soviet Union. As an organisation completely geared towards a possible European land war, not humanitarian intervention. It was a messy bunch of conflicts that no one wanted to get their hands dirty with.

After the failure at the Battle of Mogadishu in 1993 (subject of Black Hawk Down) a ground intervention was going to be a hard sell for political leaders. This is why NATO eventually opted for airstrikes instead of a ground intervention, to avoid Allied casualties. However, there were more civilian casualties than necessary because pilots were ordered to fly out of range of Serbian AA guns. This approach also got the Serbs pissed off in a big way.

The intervention was controversial at the time. In the end Tony Blair, a big proponent of interventionism (see his Chicago speech), went around drumming up support for the more robust intervention in Kosovo in 1999. The horrors of Srebrenica and the failure of UN forces to protect the civilians there did a lot to change peoples' minds. Because it went relatively well (and because his chancellor didn't let him do much domestic policy) Blair acquired a strong appetite for foreign intervention.

Incidentally, it was the failure of a Dutch peacekeeping force to stop the capture of the village that made Srebrenica possible. The Dutch have always held this against the Serbs and have been the most vocal in refusing Serbia entry into the EU. This means Serbs need to get visas for most places they travel to.