I'd have to say a good 50% or so for first dates and probably 80% or so for second dates. It rarely takes me more than two dates.
1) I always do a drink date for a first-date, never dinner. If I can, I do drinks and dinner at my place, then my close rate is close to 100%; it's like leading a fish to water if you can get a girl to do dinner and drinks at your place if you have even middling culinary skills and alcohol.
2) It's really not that hard to have solid 'date' game and to parlay that into a bang. All you have to do is be at least a decent conversationalist, dress sharp and have some of the basic tenets of game down; a playful vibe mixed with a bit of mystery. I'm honestly amazed at how many guys out there actually do the heaviest of the lifting (getting the girl to actually show and meet you) and still manage to flub somewhere during the date.
3) On my last point above, I always escalate in some way fairly early into the date (I stagger it; first might be touching the arm, then wrapping my arms around her hips, then grabbing her hands and so on and so on until penetration). This is part of the reason I think so many guys get a first date that they think goes swimmingly, until she ignores your texts and calls for a second date;
girls are more perceptive to this shit than all but the most hardened of players; if she shows up, she's at least partly open to the idea of having sex with you.
4) I don't run my mouth (to anyone but the most trusted members of my inner circle) and I don't pass judgment. This is why Datelab sounds good on paper, but fails on execution nearly 100% of the time; not only are you forcing two strangers to meet over a stilted and awkward dinner, even the sluttiest of sluts will have her defenses up at maximum level when you add pictures and words to a national daily...this is why girls on Datelab reject guys that are good on paper and then go and bang
forum members that pull them off of PoF; even the nicest-seeming of girls will fuck a near-stranger after a first date if she can do it in a zone free of judgment where she remains anonymous.