[KorbenDallas]

Regardless of your politics, do you think I will win?

[Capitán Peligroso]

The math is the math. Unless that changes significantly, Obama will win.

[soup]

Obama's going to win. At the last minute, he will bring Hillary out as the VP:

[kolovrat]

I made a $10 bet vs. Obama a year ago, right after he bagged Osama.

I now regret it and wouldn't repeat it.

That's what all the predictions and betting markets are saying at any rate which are giving it 60:40 to Obama.

[Capitán Peligroso]

(08-18-2012 05:38 AM)kolovrat Wrote:  

I made a $10 bet vs. Obama a year ago, right after he bagged Osama.

I now regret it and wouldn't repeat it.

That's what all the predictions and betting markets are saying at any rate which are giving it 60:40 to Obama.

I said right after that happened that he ensured his re-election right there, and I really haven't seen anything to contradict it since. The republicans are throwing $20million a week at this guy, and it really isn't doing anything because people have already made up their minds about the candidates. By the way, if you like to play intrade, Obama is a steal at 60. Romney might get a little bounce after the convention, then the dems have their convention and Obama will put him away. Watch.

[TheBulldozer]

No. Follow intrade.com for political gambling prop bets. It basically trades shares of political, or for that matter economic, social, or financial outcomes and is rarely wrong if you're looking to make bets like that.

[Deluge]

Obama's got a strong lead on the swing states and demographics on his side, prepare to lose $100 my friend.

[rudebwoy]

Presidents are selected not elected by the people, it is looking like they want Obama to repeat.

[kdolo]

Obama is in.

The "controllers" need to him to complete their agenda.......

[raliv]

If the economy goes south a little bit more, Romney becomes the huge favorite.

[Cincinnatus]

That's $100 you won't see again.

[Tuthmosis]

Even money?!

That's a dumb bet.

[rlongo924]

(08-18-2012 01:31 PM)Tuthmosis Wrote:  

Even money?!

That's a dumb bet.

I agree with that, Romney right now is AT BEST a 3/2 underdog and probably will fall to 2/1 as November nears. He just isn't a strong enough candidate to really challenge Obama at this point, and the economy is good enough where Romney's "business acumen" doesn't come into play as much as he'd hoped.

I hope ROmeny wins, but he's probably not going to. If Obama wins Florida, Romney is basically done. And even if Romney wins Florida, he still has to win almost all of the swing states to win, which is pretty unlikely.

So, all signs point to an Obama victory in November, although if he was running against a really strong republican candidate he'd be in a TON of trouble.

[EisenBarde]

I bet a case of beer that Obama wouldn't even be running in 2012. There's still a few weeks but it looks like I lost.

[gringochileno]

You'd have to give me 2:1 odds to get me to take the Romney side of the bet at this point. He's basically toast unless the economy gets significantly worse between now and the election. I think picking Paul Ryan as his running mate was a poor strategic choice for multiple reasons.

[RandalGraves]

I made the same bet and sleep soundly every night.

[Snok]

Betfair odds atm is Obama at 1,58 and Romney at 2,86 and pPaul at ca 90.
At even money, its a very poor bet.

[IpsaScientiaPotestasEst]

Yeah, unless things turn for the terrible on the economy (I mean ABSOLUTE shit which NO ONE will want) then I think Obama will win. However, foreign relations/tensions could affect things vastly. Iran is moving their nuclear shit underground and talks have come to halt, plus N. Korea is already a basketcase-plus events on the ground in Syria-lord knows what else might internationally pop off as well-elsewhere. Things could have just as big of an effect on policy/the election that are being partially underplayed-but again as stated, things would have to get worse.

But yes, I think you definitely lost this bet sir. The republicans putting possibly the two whitest people they could have found was absolutely stupid (not that them being white is a big deal or problem at all, just that the American demographic is changing and the Republicans could have been the team on the forefront but decided not to)-plus the fact that while Ryan is one of the lightning posts for Republican party with his plan-I believe his plan cuts some social programs SEVERELY.....and lets think about this, hmmmm-party with white people, cutting social programs (which go to great benefit (fortunately and unfortunately) to minority communities)....you're definitely not gonna vote for that party.

Now I absolutely HATE American politics nowadays and studied it too, but either way-whichever President is elected aint gonna really change SHIT. Revolution would though. End rant

[tenderman100]

All bets are risky, but this is actually a good bet for the following reasons.

--Obama's job approval is below 50%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...-1044.html

--The right track wrong track numbers favor Romney
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...y-902.html

--Money. Romney is raking it in. And when the numbers for Obama come out tomorrow, I think people will be shocked about how much he has left.

--The electoral map looks good for Obama now, but note the tossup states
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...e_map.html

When it come to polls, I trust Rasmussen because he polls likely voters.
Ohio - Tie
Florida --Romney +2
NC --Romney +5
Wis --Romney +1
Co - Tie

Romney wins these states, he wins, assuming all leans go to the candidates and even if Obama wins PA and VA.

Here is another way to think about it. The election boils down to 7 states -- the ones I listed above + VA and PA. In the last election, Obama won all of those states by a total of 2 million votes.

So in this election, all that Romney has to do is convince half of those 2 million to vote for him, and he is in. It won't be that hard.

I think the polls (other than Rasmussen) are very misleading. They oversample Democrats. Plus I think a lot of people say undecided or Obama because they don't want to be thought racist. When they go into the voting booth, all that will change.

Finally, on election night, if Fla, PA, and OH get called for Romney, it's a landslide.

[Nonpareil]

As long as women continue to vote with their vaginas, prepare to be $100 poorer.

Did you get odds?

[Deluge]

(08-20-2012 12:30 AM)tenderman100 Wrote:  

All bets are risky, but this is actually a good bet for the following reasons.

--Obama's job approval is below 50%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...-1044.html

--The right track wrong track numbers favor Romney
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...y-902.html

--Money. Romney is raking it in. And when the numbers for Obama come out tomorrow, I think people will be shocked about how much he has left.

--The electoral map looks good for Obama now, but note the tossup states
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...e_map.html

When it come to polls, I trust Rasmussen because he polls likely voters.
Ohio - Tie
Florida --Romney +2
NC --Romney +5
Wis --Romney +1
Co - Tie

Romney wins these states, he wins, assuming all leans go to the candidates and even if Obama wins PA and VA.

Here is another way to think about it. The election boils down to 7 states -- the ones I listed above + VA and PA. In the last election, Obama won all of those states by a total of 2 million votes.

So in this election, all that Romney has to do is convince half of those 2 million to vote for him, and he is in. It won't be that hard.

I think the polls (other than Rasmussen) are very misleading. They oversample Democrats. Plus I think a lot of people say undecided or Obama because they don't want to be thought racist. When they go into the voting booth, all that will change.

Finally, on election night, if Fla, PA, and OH get called for Romney, it's a landslide.

I dug up the entire Rasmussen prediction which you failed to link to despite saying how accurate it is. Rasmussen forecasts an even stronger Obama lead then the map you linked earlier does.

[ElJefe]

Its hard to tell, but the closer we get to election, the more correct intrade will be, thats the best poll. We also have the debates.

[tenderman100]

(08-20-2012 06:56 AM)P Dog Wrote:  

I dug up the entire Rasmussen prediction which you failed to link to despite saying how accurate it is. Rasmussen forecasts an even stronger Obama lead then the map you linked earlier does.

Remember, wishing doesn't make it so!

Of course, this Rasmussen map doesn't contradict the conclusion from my previous posts.

If Romney wins those toss up states, even if Obama wins PA, Romney wins.

Also keep in mind the trend. Ohio and Florida were, just a couple of weeks ago, leaning Obama. Now they are toss ups.

Obama is losing ground...Romney is gaining it.

[Deluge]

(08-20-2012 08:07 AM)tenderman100 Wrote:  

Obama is losing ground...Romney is gaining it.

Quoting directly from yesterdays Rasmussen post

Quote:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 45% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

This is the lowest level of support for Romney since March. So far, in the month of August, support for both Romney and Obama has stayed in a very narrow range between 43% and 47%.

(08-20-2012 08:07 AM)tenderman100 Wrote:  

Remember, wishing doesn't make it so!

I'm not jumping on you like this because of political differences, it's just that every time I check what you're saying in this thread using your own recommended source of information something is off.

[Bad Hussar]

Well, Intrade thinks Obama is a little more likely to win. I think they accept real money bets, so presumably Obama has a small statistical lead.

My gut would say he is going to lose, though. For three reasons.

1) The US economy apparently sucks, and he is the president who has overseen it. Whether it is really his fault is a different issue, and one voters are probably not interested in hearing.
2) "Obamacare" is apparently very unpopular with Americans, and the only way to stop it being implemented is to elect a new president.
3) It is obvious that Israel does not trust him personally and/or his administration to deal with the Iran nuclear issue. If Israel launch their attack on Iran before the election this will be obvious to everyone. Even if they don't, hasn't the damage already been done? I understand Obama is really struggling to raise much money this time round. If the big Jewish money is sitting out, from where will it be replaced? I don't see big WASP donors in Obama's camp. People like Gates and Buffet(yes I know he is technically not a WASP, but may as well be) seem to spend their money on philanthropy, rather than politics.