[Kid Twist]

(01-25-2019 12:20 AM)robreke Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 02:48 PM)Arado Wrote:  

2025 is a LONG time for a bull market to last (50% longer than the longest bull market run), and I don't know if Central Banks can keep printing that long without creating hyperinflation.

Depending on one's definition of a bull market this isn't necessarily true. The bull market from 1980 to 2000 was nearly 20 years. Sure, it was punctuated by some CYCLICAL bear markets ( 1987 crash, S&L crisis, 1994 bond crisis, The 1998 "mini-bear" (which by the way, reminds of of this current mini-bear we're experiencing) But, the market was in a long term SECULAR bull market from 1980 until 2000.

Likewise, this secular bull market started in March of 2009. So, 20 years, if we get any sort of a repeat puts us past 2025 until 2029. Just like the secular bull of the 80s and 90s, this secular bull has been punctuated by it's own cyclical (shorter term) bear markets - i.e. the summer of 2015, and what we're going through now.

I agree things are different and the various rounds of QE have, to a large extent, kept this secular bull going, but sometimes these things can go on longer than many folks think is reasonably possible. It's entirely possible we'll see more QE down the line soon or, at the very least, more accommodative interest rate policy by the Fed

I would say this is what often happens, just like a winning team that keeps winning, people say they are "due to lose" but they just keep rocking it out.

I really don't think the economy, at least from an American point of view, will even be an issue. It will be a world economy slowdown, and the confidence problems of currency with the world central banks race to the bottom (again, US best situated). Where the US is susceptible in that confidence game is in their STATE pension crises which are also linked to SSA. I chose 2025 because it's a natural stress point with the possible end of Trump 8 years, boomer stress truly noticeable, and state and local pension crises really in full swing. Maybe the technological deflation guys are right and it'll push through 2029 to 2032, but Armstrong is right in that institutions are losing confidence in every facet of American life. Just looking at Kamala Harris as Barack Obama part 2 makes me laugh that anyone takes the elections/US leadership seriously at all, anymore.


By the way, is there a sacred bull market somewhere?