Quote: (09-22-2018 11:39 AM)nomadbrah Wrote:
No one knows how many have HIV in Africa and other poor countries.
Do you think they go around testing millions of people?
They estimate it based on smaller populations and probably shoot way off, because of testing in areas with more prostitutes and drug users. The reliable studies that have been done in the Philippines for example, show very little HIV even among prostitutes, while the majority being the euphemistic "men who have sex with men" and drug users.
http://www.aidsdatahub.org/sites/default...eg2018.pdf
Out of a total 40.000 new HIV cases in the Phils from 2013-2018, there was only 2000 female.
Let that sink in again: 2000 out of 40.000 or 6% of total cases, this despite the absolutely massive prostitution industry in the Philippines.
Of the cases documented to be prostitutes (5000 over a 5 year period) only 5% were women and a whopping 96% were male prostitutes.
I really can't see the stats other than being very clear. Heterosexual sex, particularly vaginal sex, is a very, very small risk factor, when only 6% of new HIV cases are from women, many of whom engage in no-condom sex only due to religion.
Which is also why it would be interesting, in a completely non-judgmental manner, if OP would have answer if he had sex with ladyboys or if it could have happened without him knowing.
I guess, if OP is black, it is also worth pointing out that people of African heritage have a significantly higher risk of contracting HIV.
Actually, the US government gets estimates of populations from the military. The have excellent HIV surveillance of service members, US contractors, US government personnel (usaid, cia, state dept) and their families in foreign countries (some countries not all). When the military finds infected members (screening 80,000 US military personnel a day) they use contact tracing to find the nasty hoe that gave it to them in the foreign country. Then, they use these data to estimate HiV contact rate risks and prevalence in foreign countries and distribute the information in intelligence reports to soldiers in the field. Some other countries' militaries do the same, especially in high risk regions. Also, you can model the prevalence of HiV fairly accurately with limited data.