The following MW article and chart shows the Mega Cycle above my SuperCycle and Sub-MajorCycle analysis - was a bit of an eye opener and holding my PUTs for Now ... Takeaways 200 Year +/- Mega Cycle Target MegaWave III up to 4,117 and then down to MegaCycle Wave IV at 1,000. Of course the 1,000 target can be 10 years out meaning 10 years of stagflation unless imnsho Trump goes for a radical reset (Ends the Fed and Renew a new Gold/Precious Metals backed Currency perhaps with Crypto ease of use and low cost payment and transfer to give us a global competitive advantage - Of course will have to "renegotiate the $21 Trillion & additional 21 Trillion Black Budgets) National Debt giving the NWO Globalists a real haircut and why the Globalists are after Trump with a Vengeance and why the US Military and the MIC are protecting him in a mutual aid society. Just Saying
Also Clif High indicating major Financial Panic in 2019 as Euro Govs Fall due to revolutions thing Yellow Jackets with Arms and Military Support... BTC & its Forks and Alts to Soar and markets in Panic - think freefall... https://youtu.be/13SzAcsVQUg
So enjoy this Holiday Season because as the Chinese Curse goes - We are about to live in Interesting Times...
Opinion: Elliott Wave theory suggests an unsettling event will occur in the stock market
By Avi Gilburt
Published: Dec 3, 2018 11:13 a.m. ET
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliot...2018-12-03
We’re due for a prolonged bear market
image.png
I often read articles, along with the comments, to gauge the stock market’s sentiment from an anecdotal perspective. I recently noticed a quote by investor Sir John Templeton:
“For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark ’70s, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.
“There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But, over time, our studies indicate stocks do go up. As national economies become more integrated and interdependent, as communication becomes easier and cheaper, business is likely to boom. Trade and travel will grow. Wealth will increase. And stock prices should rise accordingly.”
This is certainly an appropriate assessment of the past 100 years. But what happens if we are now approaching an event that we only experience once in a hundred years?
I have written bullish stock market articles for many years. And I still think we have a number of good years ahead of us. However, the same patterns that profitably guided us on the long side of the market are showing a different future.
Past calls
Those who have followed me for a number of years have read calls that did not make sense at the time but often came to fruition. Some include the top of metals in 2011 (when most of the market was certain of $2,000-plus an ounce for gold), the rally in the dollar from 73 to 103 (when most were certain that quantitative easing would cause the dollar to crash), the bottom in gold in 2015 (when most were certain of sub-$1,000 gold), and the S&P 500 Index’s SPX, -3.24% rally to 3,000 points (yes, I was off by a few points on this one), just to name a few.
I have outlined the methodology I use to identify major turning points, yet many still assume I use voodoo or analysis of goat entrails.
But as you can see from the attached chart, I am looking for wave 3 off the 2009 lows to top out, and to then begin a 30% correction. However, once that correction runs its course, I think we will see several more years of a rally before this bull market, which began in 2009, will come to an end. And, worse yet, I think we can enter a bear market that can last as long as 20 years, rivaling the depths of the market during the Great Depression.
You see, when we top out in wave V of (III) on my monthly chart, the ensuing wave (IV) is of the same degree as the Great Depression, as that was the wave (II) within this very long term 5-wave Elliott Wave structure. And while we know that history does repeat itself (maybe not exactly, but it certainly does rhyme), I think the probabilities of seeing a similar environment to that of the Great Depression will be quite elevated, especially as we approach the bottom of the c-wave of wave (IV).
What is most interesting is that while Sir John Templeton’s statement is true for the past 80 years, it is only viewing the markets in a long-term uptrend. That is especially true if you view it after the Great Depression. However, financial markets are not linear. So, assuming markets will continue in the same manner as they have for the past 80 years is not really the correct way to view our financial markets.
Prediction in 1940
Back in 1940, Ralph Nelson Elliott, the founder of Elliott Wave theory, provided many with what is likely the best market call of all time:
“[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13-year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.”
While I think Elliott was off a bit on the timing, as I think we may not be completing this rally just yet, consider that his prediction for a massive multi-decade bull market was made when World War II was raging around him. Personally, I view this as the best market call of all time.
So, while standing on the shoulders of giants such as Ralph Nelson Elliott, my view is that the next major top we see in a few years from now may usher in a period to rival that of the Great Depression, but potentially over a more protracted period.
The main reason I think it will potentially last for more than 10 years is because the 4th wave of one lesser degree (outlined by the a-b-c structure in blue IV between 2000-2009) is a 4th wave of one lesser degree, and that lasted for nine years. A 4th wave of a greater degree will likely take much longer than one of a lesser degree.
Now, we all know that we cannot clearly see the future. As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” So we deal with markets from a probabilistic perspective. Therefore, I will also note my alternative perspective, presented in dark green on the attached monthly chart, which still would see a four- to eight-year bear market (alt (2)), but can project this bull run off the 2009 lows to continue for much longer.
Unfortunately, we will not be able to make any assessments about this more bullish potential for probably at least 10 years from now. And for those who have followed us over the long term, you know that we always view the market as it presents itself to us, and not as we assume it to be. But I think it to be quite prudent to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
As we get closer to the major top I see in the markets, I will likely write an article that will address my longer-term expectations on the markets. While I have discussed some of them with the members of my services, and have alluded to some of the issues I see in my public writing, I think we have strong potential to enter an environment unlike one we have experienced in 100 years. However, we have seen glimpses and warnings of it during the past decade.
View Avi’s long-term SPX chart in an expandable format. (Top Above)
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room featuring his intraday market analysis (including e-mini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD and VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.
Also Clif High indicating major Financial Panic in 2019 as Euro Govs Fall due to revolutions thing Yellow Jackets with Arms and Military Support... BTC & its Forks and Alts to Soar and markets in Panic - think freefall... https://youtu.be/13SzAcsVQUg
So enjoy this Holiday Season because as the Chinese Curse goes - We are about to live in Interesting Times...
Opinion: Elliott Wave theory suggests an unsettling event will occur in the stock market
By Avi Gilburt
Published: Dec 3, 2018 11:13 a.m. ET
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliot...2018-12-03
We’re due for a prolonged bear market
image.png
I often read articles, along with the comments, to gauge the stock market’s sentiment from an anecdotal perspective. I recently noticed a quote by investor Sir John Templeton:
“For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark ’70s, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.
“There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But, over time, our studies indicate stocks do go up. As national economies become more integrated and interdependent, as communication becomes easier and cheaper, business is likely to boom. Trade and travel will grow. Wealth will increase. And stock prices should rise accordingly.”
This is certainly an appropriate assessment of the past 100 years. But what happens if we are now approaching an event that we only experience once in a hundred years?
I have written bullish stock market articles for many years. And I still think we have a number of good years ahead of us. However, the same patterns that profitably guided us on the long side of the market are showing a different future.
Past calls
Those who have followed me for a number of years have read calls that did not make sense at the time but often came to fruition. Some include the top of metals in 2011 (when most of the market was certain of $2,000-plus an ounce for gold), the rally in the dollar from 73 to 103 (when most were certain that quantitative easing would cause the dollar to crash), the bottom in gold in 2015 (when most were certain of sub-$1,000 gold), and the S&P 500 Index’s SPX, -3.24% rally to 3,000 points (yes, I was off by a few points on this one), just to name a few.
I have outlined the methodology I use to identify major turning points, yet many still assume I use voodoo or analysis of goat entrails.
But as you can see from the attached chart, I am looking for wave 3 off the 2009 lows to top out, and to then begin a 30% correction. However, once that correction runs its course, I think we will see several more years of a rally before this bull market, which began in 2009, will come to an end. And, worse yet, I think we can enter a bear market that can last as long as 20 years, rivaling the depths of the market during the Great Depression.
You see, when we top out in wave V of (III) on my monthly chart, the ensuing wave (IV) is of the same degree as the Great Depression, as that was the wave (II) within this very long term 5-wave Elliott Wave structure. And while we know that history does repeat itself (maybe not exactly, but it certainly does rhyme), I think the probabilities of seeing a similar environment to that of the Great Depression will be quite elevated, especially as we approach the bottom of the c-wave of wave (IV).
What is most interesting is that while Sir John Templeton’s statement is true for the past 80 years, it is only viewing the markets in a long-term uptrend. That is especially true if you view it after the Great Depression. However, financial markets are not linear. So, assuming markets will continue in the same manner as they have for the past 80 years is not really the correct way to view our financial markets.
Prediction in 1940
Back in 1940, Ralph Nelson Elliott, the founder of Elliott Wave theory, provided many with what is likely the best market call of all time:
“[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13-year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.”
While I think Elliott was off a bit on the timing, as I think we may not be completing this rally just yet, consider that his prediction for a massive multi-decade bull market was made when World War II was raging around him. Personally, I view this as the best market call of all time.
So, while standing on the shoulders of giants such as Ralph Nelson Elliott, my view is that the next major top we see in a few years from now may usher in a period to rival that of the Great Depression, but potentially over a more protracted period.
The main reason I think it will potentially last for more than 10 years is because the 4th wave of one lesser degree (outlined by the a-b-c structure in blue IV between 2000-2009) is a 4th wave of one lesser degree, and that lasted for nine years. A 4th wave of a greater degree will likely take much longer than one of a lesser degree.
Now, we all know that we cannot clearly see the future. As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” So we deal with markets from a probabilistic perspective. Therefore, I will also note my alternative perspective, presented in dark green on the attached monthly chart, which still would see a four- to eight-year bear market (alt (2)), but can project this bull run off the 2009 lows to continue for much longer.
Unfortunately, we will not be able to make any assessments about this more bullish potential for probably at least 10 years from now. And for those who have followed us over the long term, you know that we always view the market as it presents itself to us, and not as we assume it to be. But I think it to be quite prudent to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
As we get closer to the major top I see in the markets, I will likely write an article that will address my longer-term expectations on the markets. While I have discussed some of them with the members of my services, and have alluded to some of the issues I see in my public writing, I think we have strong potential to enter an environment unlike one we have experienced in 100 years. However, we have seen glimpses and warnings of it during the past decade.
View Avi’s long-term SPX chart in an expandable format. (Top Above)
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room featuring his intraday market analysis (including e-mini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD and VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.