Quote: (11-08-2018 12:11 PM)Denzel Wrote:
My analysis is very similar to the above post. I am bearish, and expecting south.. deep south after exceeding 2810-15 region eventually.
However, let me spell the black swan possibility. If DJI exceeds its all time high, it will reach to 29xxx, the least. This is the less likely event in my analysis but better to mention its possibility. Therefore, managing risk, trading strategy, and stop-loss are important part of this game. Good luck.
Quote: (10-31-2018 04:04 PM)Denzel Wrote:
S&P's highest possible turning point is 2810-15, by forming a twin tower. This might take five days to few weeks to form. Time will tell us more. However, I will start buying my puts from 2750 and onwards in installments depending on how the last leg of the bounce wave is forming.
There is a "black swan" possibility, which might make me use stop-loss. To protect myself for the possibility, I will not invest too much as keeping the capital is the key.
Denzel excellent advice - I would sincerely appreciate your thoughts on what you consider possible Black Swan event(s).
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eJuQrhx0/ SPX SuperCycle and Major SubWaves. I love it when a plan comes together.
The SuperCycle and Major Sub-Waves Top Turning Points and Bottom turning points are nearly always evidenced by increased volatility and more dramatic swings.
Remember we did the maths on the SuperCycle and Major Subwaves several months ago and we have already completed Major Subwave one down and are now completing MW2 up and turning into a dramatic impulsing Major Wave 3 Down which is your greatest and fastest profit opportunity in all of Wave theory reflecting market psychology as institutional traders dump stocks faster to protect gains than they do buying stocks to generate profits. My only discussion point - not really a critique but for TA maths purposes is what you are considering a Black Swan Down or Up may, in fact, be the Supercycle and Major SubWaves rather dramatic moves that we illustrate in the read only Tradingview SPX Cash chart above. Green are the SuperCycle Waves and Purple the Major Waves and White the Subwaves inside the Major Waves.
Notice that the SPX 9 Month, 20 Month, 50 Month, 100 Month and 200 Month Moving Averages are still all stacked above each other in a Full Fan Up pattern. Indicating a strong very long 100 Year Up Trend (Compressed this SPX cash chart data goes back to the year 1872) with a Major Wave retracement to 2050 and then a run up to SuperCycle 5 to 3500 and likely much farther - just have not done the maths yet as that is several years into the future and we take profits on daily-hourly ESZ basis intraday and weekly-monthly SPY sub wave moves.