Quote: (09-23-2011 11:48 PM)mycleverid Wrote:
Quote: (09-21-2011 01:28 AM)ersatz Wrote:
Did you get that from 'The Social Network' movie?
Is it mentioned?
My interest in weather prediction for oil futures came from reading an article a while back on the guy in Britain who keeps beating the meteorological service over there in long-term forecasting by using a solar weather model.
He makes serious bank providing 6-24 month weather predictions to companies for everything. Construction, agriculture, weddings, conventions, sporting events, and . . . commodities.
I've wanted to take a stab at the oil futures market using a simplified, more short term strategy with an easier data set to obtain and interpret: surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.
Sadly, I haven't had the chance because a hurricane hasn't produced a meaningful threat to anything between Galveston and Biloxi since the idea hit me!
Once the northern gulf starts seeing surface temperatures in the neighborhood of 87 degrees F, it's a virtual certain a killer hurricane will form. And with so many platforms and refineries along the gulf coast, any medium-term weather pattern than ensures heating in the waters is worth speculating if oil is down.
Bonus points for the big gamble on gasoline futures would be awarded if you could game a killer storm wrecking the shipping canal into Houston and/or taking out several refineries there. Similar opportunities could be found on eastern refineries, but east coast hurricanes are weird and destructive high wind hurricanes rarely occur north of the Gulf Stream.
Something similar, go to the 3:00 minute mark of this re-enactment of the opening scene:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMAUs5piuHA