Quote: (12-23-2017 09:43 AM)Samseau Wrote:
Monero.how is not an official source of info.
What about the tweets by Monero developer Ricardo Spagni (see the steemit link). Is that not official confirmation Monero is implementing Lightning for Monero?
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Imagine your average block size is running around 100 transactions per minute. What do you think happens if there's a sudden surge in transactions? Say it unexpectedly goes up from 100 to 10,000 per minute. Since blocks with more than 200 transactions per minute get rejected, the next 50 blocks are going to be 200 transactions per minute. Then finally when the median hits 200, you can now have blocks with 400 transactions per minute. You have to keep doing this, waiting for at least 50 new blocks with maximum transactions (2*M100) to be created, before you can double again.
You've calculated median sizes incorrectly. Each new block will grow exponentially bigger.
Doesn't seem to be the case right now:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/mon...ze.html#3m
Block sizes seem to fluctuate quite a bit over time, though overall trend is upwards (no doubt as more and more people use Monero).
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Costs will increase linearly.
From the dev:
https://getmonero.org/2017/12/11/A-note-on-fees.html
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From combining the penalty formula and the dynamic block size formula with the dynamic fee formula we can infer that a higher minimum block size limit (for example, 300 kB) leads to lower initial default fees, but fee reduction (by the dynamic fee algorithm) being somewhat "slow". By contrast, a lower minimum block size limit (for example, 150 kB) leads to higher initial default fees, but faster fee reduction.
In conclusion, whilst fees are currently too high, they, most likely, won't be anymore in the future. In addition, more research has to be conducted on the topic of the minimum block size limit, because, preferably, we'd like to use a limit that doesn't require future intervention anymore.
This doesn't negate what I argued earlier - that if Monero sees a sudden spike in transactions, its dynamic block size won't be able to keep up and will most likely create a huge backlog.
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Fees won't be a serious issue in the long run. Nor will transaction speed due to no max block size
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Monero (median) ~ $5
Bitcoin (median) ~ $77
(snapshot of when I looked at the website, it updates constantly for the last 100 transactions)
So Bitcoin does ~40x more transactions per day, but "only" costs 15x more.
That $5 is entirely due to Tx size, bulletproofs should fix this.
That's conjecture. As I mentioned before, right now Monero is doing significantly less in terms of total number of transactions. If it scales to Bitcoin level volume before bulletproofs get implemented you could very well see $1xx.xx transaction fees.
This isn't to say Monero is a bad project or the people behind it are idiots. But as with all crypto projects, much is still up in the air. It still remains to be seen which project(s) come out on top.