[Arado]

(06-07-2017 01:35 PM)heavy Wrote:  

Arado, You lost me at point #1.

1) Cost - alternative energy from wind and solar is dropping drastically in price. Unsubsidized, it is now over 200x cheaper in terms of dollars per kilowatt hour than it was a few decades ago. Could be true. If it was $1,000,000 a few decades ago, now it's $5,000. I'd believe that. Now, it is actually cheaper, unsubsidized, than gas or coal in many locations. What? Not where I live. I'd like to see the stats behind this. And let's not ignore the amount of hydrocarbons required to simply build alternative energy sources. As solar gets cheaper and panels get more efficient, it gets more and more competitive with coal and gas across a wider range of weather conditions. Tesla's solar roof now costs the same as installing a regular roof, so it's essentially free energy! The first statement is purely guestimation. The Tesla solar roof costs the same? Let's see the numbers. Let's say rural Wisconsin, 1,500 square foot house, must withstand 50# snow loads. Quote out both ways. I highly doubt the price is the same.

And I do understand the point that our military is subsidizing oil to some extent.

Why don't people simply appreciate the almost unbelievable miracle that hydrocarbons provide for us. This is why I liked the OP so much. Hydrocarbons are, quite simply, amazing in their storage of energy. The way we've learned to hardness them has been a miracle for humanity.

Just look at this cost curve -


This is pretty amazing. Did you not read my post above? I said that solar is cheaper in many locations, not all locations. Obviously, when factoring in the price of solar you have to look at the total sun hours (how much power can be generated) against the cost of the panels and installation. As the weather conditions become less favorable, the power becomes more expensive.

Here is a location where solar is cheaper than coal - India, which, as I outlined above, would be the best place for solar to jump start right now.
https://qz.com/984656/solar-power-is-now...-no-sense/

Quote:

In the last three months, solar tariffs have dropped by over 25%, with much of the recent action focused around Rajasthan’s Bhadla solar park, a 10,000-hectare facility on the edge of the Thar desert.
At an auction for 500 megawatt (MW) of capacity at the park on May 12, the state-run Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) managed to discover a record-low tariff of Rs2.44 per kilowatt-hour (kWh). The previous low was two days before that when tariffs hit Rs2.62 per kWh during auctions for another phase of Bhadla solar park.

At such rock-bottom prices, solar power is even cheaper than India’s coal-based thermal power plants. The country’s largest power company, NTPC, sells electricity from its coal-based generation units at a princely Rs3.20 per kWh.

Of course, there are issues with perhaps the companies overestimating how much money they will be able to make and therefore underbidding. And of course their situation is different from America.

You can't argue with the trends, though. Ten years ago this would have been unthinkable.

Now, to the Tesla roof - let's take a look.



How about that! Tesla roof is on par with other roofs. Obviously, this is for NEW roof installations. For houses currently in the market it doesn't make sense to remove your roof and install a new one - easier just to put up solar panels. However, for any new construction it seems like a Tesla roof is a no brainer. Get enough houses in a neighborhood to link up with Tesla roofs and a couple of powerwalls each, and boom, you have a neighborhood that can probably go electricity independent.

I'm not going to argue that hydrocarbons have not contributed a ton to human progress. They have, and it is amazing how much energy they pack in. However, just because it worked in the past doesn't mean we can't move on to something better eventually. Think for a bit about how much pain humanity has had to suffer because of the concentration of hydrocarbons in some countries as opposed to others.

Can you really estimate the costs?

I would put it in the tens of trillions, if you look at all the terrorism and fundamentalism coming out of the Middle East. Not only that, but the geopolitical tensions from the Strait of Hormuz to the south China sea, to gas pipeline tensions with Russia, added up over the decades since Japan bombed us over the oil embargo during world war 2, and all of the bullshit we've had to deal with since then. Our issues with Saudi are just a fraction.

All because we can't find a way to break free of these hydrocarbons. Don't you think it's at least worth it for governments to give it an honest try to give their people a chance to enjoy prosperity and cheap energy, free from the geopolitical wrangling of trying to get hydrocarbons from countries that hate them?

China and India are trying, and they will inspire dozens of other countries to follow their lead. I'd rather be taking the lead instead of clinging to the past and bowing to the Saudis.