Quote: (02-01-2019 12:42 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:
Hey KT, i meant immediate (2-5) year span for ww3. As in an Asian theater world war with the actors being China and the US allies. Not speaking about collapse which I see as not happening anytime soon.
Hope that clarifies it!
Yeah, no, hot war in China won't happen in 2-5 years. If your time frame is 2-5 years, then Russia seems more likely, which in turn is far less likely than Iran.
I'd count 2-5 years away from being at war with X country only after they get cut off from SWIFT or embargoed/blockaded by the US. Right now, only Iran and Venezuela fit this boat. Even Russia is still firmly attached to the global economy.
And the Sino-US relationship now, while worse than 5-10 years ago, is actually *infinitely* better than in the late 1990s. Back then, China was actually just 1 step from pressing buttons to lob missiles into Taiwan, got its embassy in Belgrade bombed by the USAF, and the collision over Hainan Island. It will probably take at least a decade for things to deteriorate to that level, but I'm definitely not ruling this scenario out. If this happens, then yes, the likelihood of WW3 will shoot up.
Your friend in Taiwan has nothing to be afraid of at least in the next 10 years. The DPP wants to instill fear in its people to keep getting votes, especially how they utterly failed to turn around the stagnating economy and hinged too much on neoliberalism. And China knows it still needs to conduct international trade for now, and internal stability is way more important than any type of nationalism. It'd only do something drastic geopolitically once internal stability starts falling apart.