Quote: (09-10-2016 05:07 PM)Orion Wrote:
Quote: (09-10-2016 01:42 PM)Irenicus Wrote:
In my humble opinion...partition is the better solution in the long run for multi ethnic states like Iraq. And to far less extent, Syria (Syrian Kurds should be granted independence, or autonomy).
And...speaking of strongmen...they are just a temporary solution, especially in that part of the world. Yes, they will keep order in their countries, but...what will happen when they die? Destabilization, followed by disintegration and eventually - war. A good example is Yugoslavia...after Tito died, the country started to fracture along ethnic lines, which ended in war.
It is much better to let Shiites and Sunnis go their separate ways (they always hated each other), than keeping than in a state with unnatural borders like Iraq (Sykes Picot borders), under a stongman of some sort.
But they are not Mulit-Ethnic that much at all. There is a total of 2 ethnicities in both states, Arabs and Kurds.
Druze, Ismaili, Christians, Shia, Sunni - they are all Arabs. Even if some of them consider themselves to be Syrian (implying non-Arab origin), they still all speak Arab, the most powerful organizing principle.
As for Kurds, they could maybe get their state, but if they want to get it peacefully, they need to scale down their demands. They ask for too much territory where Arabs are majority.
Syria isn't multi ethnic like Iraq, but still, some ethnic groups, like the Druze, for example, have a territory in which they are the majority of the population. They even had their own state there, not too long ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jabal_Druze_State
If Syria gets divided (an extremely unlikely scenario), it is safe to presume that they would recreate something like that. Kurds did that already with Rojava. Other,smaller ethnic groups, like Christians, would not get any territory, because they aren't the majority in any area in Syria. They had their chance, and they, unfortunately, missed it.
And, speaking of Arab unity...that means nothing in that part of the world. Religion and clan affiliation play a much bigger role. For example, when Saddam invaded Iran (Khuzestan, which is populated by Shiite Arabs), he expected that they (Shiite Arabs, that is), would welcome him with open arms and assist him in the war, because...he is leading an Arab army. They didn't, and fought against him instead. And that is one of the reasons the Iraqi invasion of Iran failed. To these Arabs, their religion (and clans) mattered more than some Arab brotherhood.