Roosh made this sub-forum so that we wouldn't have to rely on a Trump mega thread. Might as well use it.
So how do you all think this is going to shake out?
For me, you can all check my posts, I am a big Trump booster, but I think Trump might lose Iowa by a bit due to
- Cruz's superior ground game. According to the Rubio camp Cruz has something like 10,000 volunteers in Iowa for him, and though the national media and the polls have Trump ahead, it seems a lot of the insiders feel like Cruz will still come out on top. Conversely, Trump's ground game seems non-existent.
Here's a pic of the Cruz team on Saturday:
https://www.facebook.com/stevedeace/phot...31/?type=3
Contrast that with this snapshot of a Trump volunteer center on Saturday:
http://www.examiner.com/article/is-trump-trouble
Now, I have no idea how volunteer centers are spread out. I have no idea if these are biased snap shots. What I do know from reading a lot about this stuff is that the Cruz ground team >>> Everyone else > Trump's ground team.
It's obvious that team Trump is pursuing a different strategy. Instead of the usual small-town stops to shake hands and kiss babies, Trump has gone with a mega rally approach. We'll see how it pans out, but because Iowa is a very unique place, it might not work out there as intended. It will probably work better in other states with more straightforward voting procedures.
- Iowa is fucking weird. The caucus procedure is too much of a song and dance, and Cruz has probably correctly targeted those that have done it before. Trump's team seems reliant on bringing newbs out, which is a bit of a high-risk strategy. We'll see how it works out on Monday.
Now, it's not all doom and gloom. Some factors that might lead to a Trump victory:
- Momentum. Cruz has been falling a while now, and Trump, while not rocketing up, has certainly gained ground. It's currently Rubio that has the momentum, we'll see how high he finishes. I wouldn't be shocked if Rubio came in second, but I don't think he'd get first.
- Chuck Laudner. This is Trump's Iowa state director. He is the one that guided Santorum to a weird win back in 2012.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/santorums-chu...-candidate
You can check out Laudner's bonafides here:
http://www.p2016.org/trump/trumporg.html (scroll down to the Iowa section or just search for "Laudner").
The man is not a dummy and seems very experienced in Iowa politics, so for some of the writers that are dismissing team Trump as "clueless", well I don't buy that. I suspect Laudner just tried something new. Again, we'll see if it works or not.
- Iowa is kind of meaningless. It's very easy to spin a loss here as inconsequential. The narrative that Iowa doesn't matter (evidenced by Huckabee and Santorum spinning out shortly after their Iowa wins in 08 and 12 respectively) is almost pre-canned and so a loss there shouldn't hurt Trump as much as it would Cruz (an Iowa loss would be devastating to Cruz in my opinion).
I have spent far too much time this weekend reading up on everything election related, so I will probably unplug from it all until tomorrow night.
#Trump2016
So how do you all think this is going to shake out?
For me, you can all check my posts, I am a big Trump booster, but I think Trump might lose Iowa by a bit due to
- Cruz's superior ground game. According to the Rubio camp Cruz has something like 10,000 volunteers in Iowa for him, and though the national media and the polls have Trump ahead, it seems a lot of the insiders feel like Cruz will still come out on top. Conversely, Trump's ground game seems non-existent.
Here's a pic of the Cruz team on Saturday:
https://www.facebook.com/stevedeace/phot...31/?type=3
Contrast that with this snapshot of a Trump volunteer center on Saturday:
http://www.examiner.com/article/is-trump-trouble
Now, I have no idea how volunteer centers are spread out. I have no idea if these are biased snap shots. What I do know from reading a lot about this stuff is that the Cruz ground team >>> Everyone else > Trump's ground team.
It's obvious that team Trump is pursuing a different strategy. Instead of the usual small-town stops to shake hands and kiss babies, Trump has gone with a mega rally approach. We'll see how it pans out, but because Iowa is a very unique place, it might not work out there as intended. It will probably work better in other states with more straightforward voting procedures.
- Iowa is fucking weird. The caucus procedure is too much of a song and dance, and Cruz has probably correctly targeted those that have done it before. Trump's team seems reliant on bringing newbs out, which is a bit of a high-risk strategy. We'll see how it works out on Monday.
Now, it's not all doom and gloom. Some factors that might lead to a Trump victory:
- Momentum. Cruz has been falling a while now, and Trump, while not rocketing up, has certainly gained ground. It's currently Rubio that has the momentum, we'll see how high he finishes. I wouldn't be shocked if Rubio came in second, but I don't think he'd get first.
- Chuck Laudner. This is Trump's Iowa state director. He is the one that guided Santorum to a weird win back in 2012.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/santorums-chu...-candidate
You can check out Laudner's bonafides here:
http://www.p2016.org/trump/trumporg.html (scroll down to the Iowa section or just search for "Laudner").
The man is not a dummy and seems very experienced in Iowa politics, so for some of the writers that are dismissing team Trump as "clueless", well I don't buy that. I suspect Laudner just tried something new. Again, we'll see if it works or not.
- Iowa is kind of meaningless. It's very easy to spin a loss here as inconsequential. The narrative that Iowa doesn't matter (evidenced by Huckabee and Santorum spinning out shortly after their Iowa wins in 08 and 12 respectively) is almost pre-canned and so a loss there shouldn't hurt Trump as much as it would Cruz (an Iowa loss would be devastating to Cruz in my opinion).
I have spent far too much time this weekend reading up on everything election related, so I will probably unplug from it all until tomorrow night.
#Trump2016