Quote: (12-03-2015 03:27 PM)polar Wrote:
This article is overstated. Most of Russia's economy depends on commodities exports. The (state-affiliated) companies in commodities are doing well, but most of the profits wind up in numbered bank accounts in tax havens.
That being said, while not 50% poorer, most people have suffered 10+% cuts to their real income over the previous year, and taxes have only been going up. Imports are being substituted by goods of inferior quality. For example, butter in food products being replaced with palm oil, less real meat or lower quality meat in sausages, etc.
If what you're saying is true, then that sounds dire indeed, a generation or two of such trends might result in an economy as bad as the USA.
326,000 Native-Born Americans Lost Their Job In November: Why This Remains The Most Important Jobs Chart:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-05...rtant-jobs
The "Real Stuff" Economy Is Falling Apart:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-05...ling-apart
Each month one or two high-profile government reports show the US is growing, adding jobs and generally recovering from the Great Recession. But it’s not clear how that can be, when the part of the economy that makes and moves real things keeps shrinking. Here’s a chart, published recently by Zero Hedge, showing that US manufacturing has been contracting for the past year:
....
One reason for the discrepancy between overall growth and real stuff is that most of today’s economy is made up of services, and they’re doing okay (until this month):
What is the service sector? Mostly software, restaurants, banks, construction companies, retailers, doctors and hospitals.
Can an economy thrive if it doesn’t make or move physical things? Intuitively the answer is no, because most of the services mentioned above either maintain the status quo (like healthcare and restaurants) or (like houses) consume rather than build capital. As for banking, in its current incarnation it’s almost certainly a net negative, draining capital from productive uses and funneling it to trading desks and political action committees.
The US, in short, is engaged in an experiment to see how long an economy can function with services growing and manufacturing contracting. As with so many of today’s monetary and fiscal experiments, no one knows when definitive results will come in. But the data so far aren’t encouraging.
There Go The Truckers: Unprecedented 59% Plunge In November Heavy Truck Orders:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-03...ruck-order
It's Official (Again): The Current "Recovery" Is Worse Than The Great Depression's:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-01...epressions
In a perfectly timed update to his infamous April 2009 "worse then The Great Depression" chart, Kevin O'Rourke has unveiled his latest chart-du-poor. With US manufacturing collapsing, bond yields tumbling, and The Fed about to hike rates to prove they can, this so-called 'recovery' has fallen below that following The Great Depression. As O'Rourke sums up, "pretty dismal stuff. Let’s hope that we can at least avoid the famous 1937-38 double dip."
U.S. Total Debt Soars By $674 Billion In November:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-01...n-november
Also, just to preempt the question, the chart below shows the change in US debt under president Barack Obama: starting at $10.6 trillion on January 21, 2009, total debt is now up just over 77% under Obama's tenure, to $18.8 trilion. At the current pace of growth, it may double by the time Hillary is sworn in as America's next president.
Number Of Millennials Living In Parents' Basement Climbs (Again); Weddings Blamed (Again):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-30...amed-again
Three weeks ago, we noted with some alarm that the number of women age 18 to 34 living with their parents is now the highest since record keeping began more than seven decades ago.
According to a study by the Pew Research Center in Washington, 36.4% of young women have now moved back to the basement, so to speak. The culprit: weddings. No, really.
[...]
Of course the real reason why 18-34 year-olds are moving home is because the US economic "recovery" is characterized by a labor market that, far from being a "robust" creator of breadwinner jobs, actually churns out bartenders and waiters. The sad thing is, between lackluster wage growth, crippling student debt, and bad decision making when it comes to picking a college major, some millennials are finding out that serving drinks is a far better way to make ends meet than taking a full-time job for a meager salary that all but guarantees you a spot among America's growing peasantry.
On Monday, we get still more evidence of the above, this time from the Commerce Department, who reports that 31.5% of 18-34 year-olds now live with their parents.
2015: The Last Christmas In America:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-30...as-america
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2015/dec...-wages.png
Wages as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) have been declining for decades. Note the diminishing returns on financialization and asset bubbles that always bust: wages blip up in the bubble and then crash to new lows when the bubble bursts:
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2015/GDP-wages8-15a.png
Look at how debt has soared while GDP has essentially flatlined. This is diminishing returns writ large: we have to pile on ever-increasing mountains of debt just to keep GDP from going negative.
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2014/TCMDO-GDP7-14b.png
This dependence on debt for "growth" leaves the economy exquisitely sensitive to any decline in debt growth. The slightest drop in debt growth in the Global Financial Meltdown almost collapsed the entire global economy:
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2015/tcmdo6-15.png