Quote: (09-05-2015 03:55 PM)amity Wrote:
Quote: (09-05-2015 03:44 PM)TheNookieMonster Wrote:
What's the net tax impact of new immigrants to EU countries? Anyone know of data on this?
In the US, illegal immigrants tend to make a net contribution to taxes (i.e. they pay more than they consume in government services/entitlements) so it makes sense that politicians want to to keep them coming; immigrants help to push back the inevitable shortfalls in entitlement payments. In the EU, my sense is that immigrants might be a net drain on government coffers.
Re the first point, could that really be true?
I find that hard to believe, do you have any unbiased studies that show that's the case?
Re the second point, your sense is correct, significantly moreso in recent times with the increasing amounts of unskilled people from second/third world countries who know that the welfare states in Germany/UK/Sweden/Switzerland, etc will look after them.
Yes, it's true but I don't think I have any source that you would consider unbiased. My sources are all ultimately academics who tend to favor immigration anyway. Their methods are sound as far as I'm concerned.
We can think about it from first principles though. What do politicians do? They do what's best for politicians. Of all the issues facing American politicians, the looming shortfall in entitlement payments is by far the biggest problem. I think the projected shortfall in social security is coming in about 2030, and the CBO would have told you 2040 if you asked 10 years ago so it has gotten worse. The bipartisan support for illegal immigration among both major parties tells us that politicians across the board are benefiting from it. My hypothesis is that this bipartisan support is driven by the fact that politicians trust the research showing that illegal immigrants pay more in taxes than they consume. This allows politicians to continuing making entitlement payments without doing anything to address the fundamental problems in entitlement programs. They're just kicking the can in a new ingenious way.
The situation in Europe is more complicated, but my hunch is that this new immigration push is designed to prop up the European project which has been greatly weakened since the economic crisis and Greece fiasco. Basically, mass immigration will help them push the United States of Europe down everyone's throat.