Quote: (02-20-2014 06:30 PM)dtf Wrote:
So what would be the ideal outcome of this for us 'love tourists'?
From best to worst, IMO:
- 'protest' fizzles out, Party of Regions stays in control, but there will be a repeat in a few years. This is ideal because the country will continue to accumulate a massive amount of debt without any reforms. Meantime, the oligarchs would continue to pilfer anything of value, guaranteeing that the economic situation would not improve. Ukrainian language usage will not increase in Kiev.
- the three amigos take control of the government. I don't think this would last very long (last time they could only hold power for 3 years). Politically, the country would align itself with the EU. On the + side, Ukraine's economy would be, in a word, fucked. Prices will rise (it's an EU+IMF demand) and they will lose the Russian subsidies - cheap gas, the Sevastopol lease, and bond purchases.
Under this scenario, you can forget about doing business in Ukraine because there will be law changes to deal with every month. In 2006-8 it was a nightmare trying to achieve anything. The only thing the country had at that time was rampant inflation due to foreign investors piling into the property market.
- some Southern/Eastern regions break away or form a new state. This is the worst possible scenario because the balance of the elections in the rest of the country would be shifted strongly towards the three amigos. The remaining part of Ukraine would align itself towards Europe. Ukrainian would dominate in Kiev, due to the lower influence from the Russian-speaking regions. Girls will start to wear the same trash they wear in the rest of Central Europe... The only stores that will survive will be the same 20 that you see in every mall in Poland, CZ, Hungary, etc.