Yanukovich has continually shot himself in the foot. At every lull in the protests his security forces provide some sort of provocation for events to once again spiral into riots.
The only smart thing that he has done so far is to close the roads to Kiev, which he should have been doing every weekend starting back in December. Controlling traffic is something that he could have gotten away with in the eyes of the West and it would have severely limited the size of these protests.
Now that the ultras are fighting alongside the nationalists I see no chance of de-escalation. I've met a few ultras and these are kids who have nothing to live for except getting drunk and fighting at football games. I'm sure this is already well known to most EE veterans but ultras (extreme football fans) devote their attention into organizing mass brawls instead of watching football. In other words, these guys are pretty hard.
The nationalists will likely continue to take advantage of the relative complacency of local security forces in Western Ukraine to amass arms which will causes further escalation, especially now that both sides are openly shooting each other.
The only silver lining for Yanukovich is that it will make it easier for him to call a state of emergency, with deaths in the police nearing double digits. However, this many deaths will only strengthen the West's resolve to remove him from power and he will have lost legitimacy with less interested observers. Putin will have to come to a decision soon of making a strong show of support for Yanukovich's actions or washing his hands clean. While Russia certainly doesn't want Ukraine to drift west, I doubt that the oligarchs or Putin will continue support him in office for much longer even if this mess clears up, given how he is universally disliked and mistrusted.
The only smart thing that he has done so far is to close the roads to Kiev, which he should have been doing every weekend starting back in December. Controlling traffic is something that he could have gotten away with in the eyes of the West and it would have severely limited the size of these protests.
Now that the ultras are fighting alongside the nationalists I see no chance of de-escalation. I've met a few ultras and these are kids who have nothing to live for except getting drunk and fighting at football games. I'm sure this is already well known to most EE veterans but ultras (extreme football fans) devote their attention into organizing mass brawls instead of watching football. In other words, these guys are pretty hard.
The nationalists will likely continue to take advantage of the relative complacency of local security forces in Western Ukraine to amass arms which will causes further escalation, especially now that both sides are openly shooting each other.
The only silver lining for Yanukovich is that it will make it easier for him to call a state of emergency, with deaths in the police nearing double digits. However, this many deaths will only strengthen the West's resolve to remove him from power and he will have lost legitimacy with less interested observers. Putin will have to come to a decision soon of making a strong show of support for Yanukovich's actions or washing his hands clean. While Russia certainly doesn't want Ukraine to drift west, I doubt that the oligarchs or Putin will continue support him in office for much longer even if this mess clears up, given how he is universally disliked and mistrusted.