Quote: (11-09-2017 02:37 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:
Also you seem to continually ignore fact that I called out Robert Prechtor as a hack and a failure. Still waiting for a response on that one.
I do not have the time, nor the inclination, to respond to all your nonsensical claims. As I previously wrote, his peers have already recognized his value as a financial analyst and a trader:
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Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist similarly was honored with the “Award of Excellence” two times by Hard Money Digest, and was also honored with the title “Timer of the Year” by Timer Digest. Of all the newsletters these services considered, his is the only one which has received such a distinction on two separate occasions.
Mr. Prechter also achieved the historical all-time record at the “United States Trading Championships” when his professionally monitored real money options trading account gained over 444 percent returns. This helped him to earn the coveted “Guru of the Decade” title from the Financial News Network.
What he has actually accomplished, the awards that he has won, the 18 books that he has written, and the recognition of his peers is far more important than a handful of cherry-picked public statements. As any intelligent investor knows, an investor can be highly successful even if he is correct only 30% of the time -- if he rides his winners and cuts his losers quickly.
For example, I yanked all my money from the stock market this year and reinvested it in real tangible assets in emerging markets where it will garner a far better yield at lower risk. I held aside a small portion of cash to speculate during the next market crash. Even if the stock market continues to beat the odds (as the second longest bull market in history), I will make far more money during the next market crash by buying LEAPS options at the market bottom than I ever would by remaining in this risky, overvalued market.
For example, if the market drops by 50%, using $100,000 in LEAPS I can control up to $1 million in stock. If the market fully recovers, as it did after both the 2000 and 2008 financial panics, then that $1 million in stock will now be worth $2 million. So, by risking $100,000 I can make up to $1 million. That is a 1000% return, while people who are still in this overvalued market are picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. In sum, in a few years I can make three times as much money as someone who remained in the market from 2009 to date (who has made only a 300 percent return) and incurred far more risk (the loss of up to half their portfolio when another market crash occurs). What I just described is called an asymmetric trade (i.e., a trade where the potential gains are very large relative to the possible loss). (While this is a real scenario, it is an oversimplification and I am using large whole numbers to make my point. As a conservative investor, I would buy in-the-money options. So, while the profit margin would not be quite this high it is still very much in the ballpark.)
The point is that intelligent investors do not follow the herd. People such as Mr. Prechter are constantly searching for asymmetric trade opportunities -- and they make money even if they are wrong about major trends, because they have a plan to take advantage of periodic low-risk investment opportunities.
I was reading a health related article the other day. One of the comments was from a man who was wiped out financially in the 2008 financial panic. He wanted better health so that he could work until he died. Very sad. Yet, this happened to millions of mom-and-pop investors who should have been invested in risk-free CDs, if not for the financial repression caused by government manipulation of interest rates to maintain a bloated welfare system, which caused these investors to chase yield in a financial system that they did not fully understand. And this same scenario will happen again. It is only a matter of time. Those investors who properly plan will profit, while the herd gets slaughtered.